Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
540 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
530 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013


THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...THIS EVENING...IF AT ALL.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON...MAY REACH INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. ABUNDANT CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY OVER
EASTERN OKLAHOMA MEANS..ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO REACH OUR AREA
WILL POSE A SEVERE THREAT.  THE PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOW. THE CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD STORMS
OCCUR IS HIGH. THE MOST VULNERABLE AREA WOULD BE WEST OF HIGHWAY
75 IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE
WEATHER TO OUR REGION AS A STRONG SLOW MOVING UPPER SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LINGERS OVER THE PLAINS.

LARGE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL MAXIMIZE OVER
EASTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY EVENING AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING.  SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING TORNADOES AND
BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUST TO 80 MILES AN HOUR WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THE SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY EVENING
WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE THREAT
LATE MONDAY  AND  MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOR  ALL OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
MAY LAST INTO TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...HEAVY RAINFALL
...LATE MONDAY  OR  MONDAY NIGHT MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.
HEAVY RAINS COULD RESULT IN RIVER FLOODING AS WELL.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FAIRLY CERTAIN GIVEN
FORECAST METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS. IMPLEMENTATION OF
PRE WEATHER EVENT ACTION PLANS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
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