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Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
109 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011130-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
109 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...BY MID EVENING IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA...LATE TONIGHT NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.

FIRE DANGER.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...

AHEAD OF THE RAIN SHIELD ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND RELATIVELY DRY
AIR WILL YIELD A LIMITED FIRE DANGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. RAIN MOVING IN THIS EVENING WILL END THIS THREAT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE RECENT DRY SPELL...THE AMOUNT OF FORECASTED
RAINFALL...GENERALLY AT OR LESS THAN AN INCH...IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE ANY FLOODING ISSUES.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL PRODUCE
GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE STRONG
WINDS AND DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER...THESE SAME AREAS
ARE GETTING RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY LIMIT THE THREAT OVERALL.

THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER WITH SOME IMPACTS REMAINS WITH
THE NEXT FRONT AND UPPER STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS
THE PLAINS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS REMAINS HIGH...SO CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST
AS THIS TIME GETS CLOSER.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$

LACY





Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
306 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-312300-
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
306 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.NOW...

AT 3:00 PM... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADARS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MCALESTER...TO SILOAM SPRINGS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAD REMAINED
VERY LIGHT...WITH AROUND A HUNDREDTH OR TWO PER HOUR. ALL THIS
ACTIVITY WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AROUND 35 MILES PER HOUR.

THROUGH 5:00 PM...LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...WITH BETWEEN
A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

$$

16





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