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Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
504 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
504 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

WINTER WEATHER.
RISK...LIMITED.
        AREA...NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MIXED WITH LIGHT SLEET AND POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE THE WINTRY MIXTURE DOES OCCUR DUE TO TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE FREEZING AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION RATES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE SECOND IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO COME THROUGH WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILBLE TO IT SO ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED WITH IT SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL RAISE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ON TUESDAY.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$





Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
754 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-180330-
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
754 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.NOW...

AT 7:54 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADARS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. A WINTRY MIX WAS
FALLING ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412...WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE
NEAR FREEZING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS PUSHING INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND EXTENDED FROM NEAR BARTLESVILLE...SOUTH TO
MCALESTER. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
EAST...ENDING THE PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST. AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE...HOWEVER...WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
BEHIND THIS LINE.

THROUGH 9:30 PM...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL
PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WINTRY MIX
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412. LITTLE TO NO SNOW OR
SLEET ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS SURFACE AND ROADWAY TEMPERATURES
ARE ABOVE FREEZING. HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO A QUARTER OF
AN INCH WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION BANDS OR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP.

$$

16





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