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Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK..CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
455 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
455 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...MAINLY EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...THIS EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...MAINLY EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THE
INITIAL STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...WITH HAIL
AND GUSTY WIND BEING THE MAIN THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...MAINLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
OVER THE REGION. THOUGH THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD ALSO TRIGGER A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY
PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE SUNDAY...LEAVING MONDAY DRY BUT
COOLER. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED...WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING BY MID NEXT
WEEK.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
WITH THE RECENT RAINS AND THE AMOUNT OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...FLOODING
COULD BECOME A CONCERN.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$

16










Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
320 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181000-
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
320 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.NOW...
AT 3:20 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA....WITH MOST ACTIVITY WEST OF A CENTRALIA TO HUGO
OKLAHOMA LINE.


THROUGH 5:00 AM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE. MOST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF HIGHWAY 69.
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME SMALL
HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE
QUARTER AND ONE HALF INCH. ALL ACTIVITY WAS MOVING NORTH AROUND 20
MILES AN HOUR.



$$








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