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Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1201 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1201 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015



THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA....FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
        ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...PUSHMATAHA AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.


DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITHIN THIS SAME ZONE
WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTED WITH SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR CREATING
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE
REGION...HOWEVER STORMS WHICH ARE ABLE TO PERSIST WILL LIKELY
BECOME SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...A LIMITED TORNADO RISK WILL ACCOMPANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN BOTH STORM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL INFILTRATE AREAS NORTHWEST OF
INTERSTATE 44 THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAPID WILDFIRE SPREAD.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND SUPPORT
A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...HOWEVER LESS WIND SHEAR WILL
LOWER THE MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE PLAINS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT ALONG WITH WITH CONDITIONS SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN BY
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.


WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$







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