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Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1247 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1247 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES TO NEAR THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER. THIS WILL
RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A LIMITED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A TREND
TOWARDS HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
REBUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$




Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1228 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-291830-
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE...
EUREKA SPRINGS...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE...HUNTSVILLE...
VAN BUREN...OZARK...CHARLESTON...FORT SMITH...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...
HUGO...PAWHUSKA...BARTLESVILLE...NOWATA...VINITA...MIAMI...
PAWNEE...TULSA...CLAREMORE...PRYOR...GROVE...JAY...SAPULPA...
OKEMAH...OKMULGEE...WAGONER...TAHLEQUAH...STILWELL...MUSKOGEE...
CHECOTAH...SALLISAW...MCALESTER...STIGLER...WILBURTON...POTEAU
1228 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.NOW...

AT 12:28 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADARS DETECTED A
COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...MAINLY WITHIN CARROLL COUNTY. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD ALSO BE TRIGGERED IN THIS AREA. THE
ACTIVITY HAD LITTLE MOVEMENT...AND WAS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE
EAST.

THROUGH 1:30 PM...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF
WESTERN ARKANSAS...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE STORMS POSE
LITTLE SEVERE WEATHER RISK...HOWEVER...ANY STRONGER CELLS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH LIGHTNING
AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

$$

16




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