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Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
502 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-021015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
502 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...PRIMARILY EAST OF A LINE FROM MIAMI TO MCALESTER.
ONSET...AFTERNOON.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTERNOON.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
ONSET...AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL TEXAS.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUFFICIENT
WIND SHEAR TO ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.
THE RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS.  ADDITIONALLY...
SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD ESPECIALLY
AREAS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS.  SUPERCELL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2 TO 3 INCH SIZE
HAIL.  FURTHERMORE...SHOULD SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR
DEVELOP BY THURSDAY EVENING THEN TORNADIC STORMS WILL BE
LIKELY.  A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS...FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTH WINDS.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS PREVAIL SATURDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY.  THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS ON THURSDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$







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