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One product issued by NWS for: Tulsa OK

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
538 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
538 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016


....SEVERE STORM AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA....SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.


FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.


DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
IN RESPONSE TO A LOW LEVEL JET AND A NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM
FRONT. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND
POSSIBLY WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS BEFORE WEAKENING SOME AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET SUBSIDES. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
MORNING STORMS.

AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE STORMS WILL ALSO CARRY A SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH LARGE HAIL AS
THE PRIMARY THREAT. STORMS THAT DEVELOP AND SUSTAIN THEMSELVES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO HAVE A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT.
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE BOUNDARY PROGRESSES EXISTS.
MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE WARM
FRONT...AND AT THIS TIME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY EXPAND NORTH SHOULD THE WARM FRONT
ADVANCE MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.


ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL CARRY AT LEAST A LIMITED
SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AS THE
MAIN THREATS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

ADDITIONALLY...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES THAT
OCCUROVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS
MORNING THROUGH 7 AM SATURDAY.


SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SOME RAIN AND THUNDER MAY LINGER ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A
PERIOD OF SETTLED WEATHER TO FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$




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