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2 products issued by NWS for: Tulsa OK

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
422 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
422 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT SPREADS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. SOME OF
THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH THE CONCERN. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS TURNING MORE TOWARD
POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY BEFORE THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXIT THE REGION. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD AGAIN BE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO
PUSH INTO THE PLAINS AND ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS DURING THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT EXITS THE REGION. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ODILE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE PLAINS AND MERGE WITH
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$







Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
450 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-172315-
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
450 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.NOW...

AT 4:50 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADARS INDICATED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AND POISED TO DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF OKLAHOMA. THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 20 MPH.

THROUGH 6:15 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A COMMERCE OKLAHOMA TO OZARK
ARKANSAS LINE. WHILE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN PERIODS
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL...THE STRONGER STORMS THAT OCCUR
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. AVERAGE HOURLY RAINFALL OF ONE TENTH TO ONE
QUARTER INCH WILL BE COMMON...WITH AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH
PER HOUR POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING ISSUES MAY ARISE WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

$$








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