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Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
455 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
455 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH FLASH
   FLOODING LIKELY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
RISK...VERY LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ONSET....MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ONSET....MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ONSET....MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ONSET....MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...WEST OF HIGHWAY 75.

DISCUSSION...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. STRONGER BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HEAVY RAIN...FLASH FLOODING AND MAIN STEM
RIVER FLOODING COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THE HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...INCLUDING NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SECONDARY TO THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT...A FEW STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE WEATHER WITH A VERY LIMITED THREAT OF A TORNADO.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...HIGH WIND AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SUNDAY MORNING. THE
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INCLUDING
FLASH FLOODING AND MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A MOIST AIR-MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE
AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY FURTHER AGGRAVATE THE
FLOODING SITUATION.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
THIS HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT ALSO COINCIDES WITH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL POSE A HEIGHTENED THREAT TO
THOSE THAT PLAN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. UPDATED FORECASTS SHOULD BE
CLOSELY FOLLOWED AND PERSONS SHOULD BE READY TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD
FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE
FOR THOSE PLANNING TO SPEND TIME NEAR AREA RIVERS...LAKES AND
OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS WHERE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
COULD DEVELOP.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$





Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1053 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-231700-
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
1053 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.NOW...
AT 10:50 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS CONTINUED TO DETECT
RAINSHOWERS OVER MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 35 MILES AN HOUR.

THROUGH NOON...RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN PER
HOUR...ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LESSER AMOUNTS ON THE
ORDER OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

$$








Flood Warning

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
932 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015


...The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a Flood Warning
for the following rivers in Oklahoma...

  Bird Creek near Sperry affecting Osage and Tulsa Counties.

OKC113-143-232232-
/O.NEW.KTSA.FL.W.0029.150525T0522Z-150525T2109Z/
/SPEO2.1.ER.150525T0522Z.150525T1200Z.150525T1509Z.NO/
932 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a

* Flood Warning for
  The Bird Creek near Sperry
* from late Sunday night to Monday afternoon, or until the warning is
  cancelled.
* At  9:00 AM Saturday, the stage was  2.59 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek near Sperry is expected to rise above
  flood stage Monday before dawn  and continue to rise to near 22.0
  feet by Monday morning. The river is expected to fall below flood
  stage late Monday morning.
* Impact...At 23.0 feet, minor rural flooding occurs from Skiatook to
  Turley.

&&

LAT...LON 3640 9605 3620 9598 3620 9590 3640 9593

$$





Flood Warning

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
931 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015


...The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a Flood Warning
for the following rivers in Oklahoma...

  Caney River near Collinsville affecting Rogers and Tulsa Counties.

OKC131-143-232231-
/O.NEW.KTSA.FL.W.0028.150525T1500Z-150526T1609Z/
/CVLO2.1.ER.150525T1500Z.150526T0000Z.150526T1009Z.NO/
931 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a

* Flood Warning for
  The Caney River near Collinsville
* from Monday morning to Tuesday morning, or until the warning is
  cancelled.
* At  8:30 AM Saturday, the stage was 14.32 feet.
* Flood stage is 26.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Caney River near Collinsville is expected to rise
  above flood stage late Monday morning and continue to rise to near
  27.3 feet by Monday evening. The river is expected to fall below
  flood stage early Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 27.0 feet, minor agricultural flooding occurs. County
  roads north of Collinsville may be covered with water.

&&

LAT...LON 3635 9588 3630 9570 3636 9564 3643 9580

$$





Flash Flood Watch

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
428 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

OKZ049-053>076-232130-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-150525T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...HUGO...PAWHUSKA...
BARTLESVILLE...NOWATA...VINITA...MIAMI...PAWNEE...TULSA...
CLAREMORE...PRYOR...JAY...BRISTOW...OKEMAH...OKMULGEE...WAGONER...
TAHLEQUAH...STILWELL...MUSKOGEE...EUFAULA...SALLISAW...
MCALESTER...STIGLER...WILBURTON...POTEAU
428 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
  SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST
  CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...CHEROKEE...MUSKOGEE...OKFUSKEE AND
  SEQUOYAH. IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...ADAIR...CRAIG...CREEK...
  DELAWARE...MAYES...NOWATA...OKMULGEE...OSAGE...OTTAWA...
  PAWNEE...ROGERS...TULSA...WAGONER AND WASHINGTON. IN SOUTHEAST
  OKLAHOMA...CHOCTAW...HASKELL...LATIMER...LE FLORE...MCINTOSH...
   PITTSBURG AND PUSHMATAHA.

* THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TODAY WILL TRANSITION
  TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE DAY.
  HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE COMMON THIS WEEKEND
  THROUGH MONDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH LOCALLY
  HIGHER AMOUNTS WHICH MAY APPROACH 10 INCHES.

  GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST FOR...OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...
  CREEK...TULSA...PAWNEE...OSAGE...WASHINGTON...NOWATA AND ROGERS COUNTIES.
  AT THIS TIME THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER WESTERN
  OKFUSKEE...CREEK...PAWNEE AND OSAGE COUNTIES. GIVEN SATURATED SOIL
  CONDITIONS...FLASH FLOODING WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
  COUNTIES...HOWEVER FLASH FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE IN
  EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS WEEKEND.

* FLOODING MAY BECOME PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

* ANYONE WHO HAS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OR TRAVEL PLANNED THIS HOLIDAY
  WEEKEND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR IMPACT TO RECREATIONAL
  AREAS OR POSSIBLE ROAD CLOSURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR
QUICK ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS
ISSUED.

IF YOU LIVE NEAR...OR TRAVEL ACROSS A STREAM...CREEK OR RIVER
OFTEN SUBJECT TO FLOODING...NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR
DANGEROUS FLOODING.

&&

$$



U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
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Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
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