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Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1254 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-061100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1254 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...WEST OF A LINE FROM NOWATA TO HUGO.
ONSET...LATE EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...WEST OF A LINE FROM NOWATA TO HUGO.
ONSET...LATE EVENING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN
ISOLATED STRONG STORM POSSIBLE. THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL FOCUS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...AND
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY WHICH WILL REDUCE THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FROM MID WEEK THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST...AND WHILE
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS WEST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION...THERE WILL REMAIN AT LEAST A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER EACH DAY. THE PRIMARY STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAY INCREASE THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL AS WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN. ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR WHICH MAY RAISE FLOODING CONCERNS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$









Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1246 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-051900-
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
1246 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.NOW...AT 12:40 PM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING
OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE LARGEST CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS WAS OVER MCINTOSH COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST PITTSBURG COUNTY.
THE SHOWERS WERE MOVING NORTH ABOUT 25 MILES AN HOUR.

THROUGH 2 PM SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE COMMON OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MUSKOGEE...EASTERN MCINTOSH AND EASTERN PITTSBURG
COUNTIES WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE SHOWERS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS...FOR PLACES WHERE IT DOES RAIN...WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN.





$$








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