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3 products issued by NWS for:

Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1115 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

NMZ508-509-520-524>526-538>540-180730-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CARRIZOZO...ELK...GLENWOOD...
GRAN QUIVIRA...PICACHO...QUEMADO...ROSWELL...RUIDOSO...SOCORRO
1115 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.NOW...
THROUGH 130 AM MDT...A LARGE AREA OF RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY IN SPOTS...
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY
AND THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OR SO OF CHAVES COUNTY. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE RUIDOSO AREA AND THE SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY BURN SCARS
AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY. SOME
LIGHTER RAIN WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN SOCORRO COUNTY AND PERHAPS SOUTHEAST CATRON COUNTY AS
WELL...BUT SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT. RAIN
AMOUNTS IN SOUTH LINCOLN AND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY AS MUCH AS
A HALF INCH. TRAVELERS AND RESIDENTS...ESPECIALLY IN FAR SOUTHERN
SOCORRO AND LINCOLN COUNTIES AS WELL AS FAR SOUTHWEST CHAVES
COUNTY...SHOULD BE ALERT TO PONDING OF WATER AS WELL AS FAST FLOWING
WATER OVER LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND IN ARROYOS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

$$

43





Flash Flood Watch

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
951 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

NMZ508-509-520-524>526-538>540-181200-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.A.0015.000000T0000Z-140919T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-
UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-
EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
951 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...INCLUDING THE
  FOLLOWING AREAS...CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS...EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY...
  LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY... SOUTH
  CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SOUTHWEST CHAVES
  COUNTY...SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY.

* THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON

* DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN
  AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
  WIDESPREAD RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
  ADDITIONAL RAIN FALLING ON AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
  HEAVY RAIN DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO WILL INCREASE THE ALREADY
  SERIOUS FLASH FLOOD THREAT. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WILL BE THE
  UPPER GILA REGION...SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS WHERE
  INTENSE DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES OVER 2 INCHES PER
  HOUR. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
  EXTENDED THREAT PERIOD COULD RESULT IN POTENTIALLY LIFE-
  THREATENING FLASH FLOOD SITUATIONS. MINOR FLOODING COULD ALSO
  DEVELOP IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE SAN FRANCISCO RIVER AS WELL
  AS THE RIO BONITO.

* THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE ESPECIALLY HIGH DOWNSTREAM OF
  RECENT BURN SCARS. ABRUPT FLOWS OF WATER...ASH...AND DEBRIS COULD
  DEVELOP AFTER HEAVY DOWNPOURS IMPACT THE AREA. RESIDENTS AND
  TRAVELERS THROUGH THE WATCH AREA SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AS FLASH
  FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

SHY











Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
609 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

NMZ501>540-181215-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
609 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FOCUS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN WILL BE THE UPPER GILA AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN REGIONS WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WHITEWATER BALDY BURN SCAR. FARTHER NORTH...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND RAINFALL COULD BECOME HEAVY. A FEW
STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK TO BE THE MOST CRITICAL PERIOD
FOR FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING...AS THE REMNANTS OF ODILE PASS
OVER THE HEART OF THE STATE. THE THREAT OF AREAL FLOODING AND
POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WILL BE GREATEST IN
THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS BUT LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT AREAWIDE. A SLOW AND GRADUAL DRYING AND
CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY...BUT
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY FLOODING
THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637.

$$

41







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