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Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
551 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

NMZ501>540-171200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
551 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST.
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND RAINFALL COULD BECOME HEAVY. THIS
MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING... ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WHITEWATER BALDY BURN SCAR COMPLEX AND THE LITTLE BEAR BURN
SCAR. ISOLATED LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL.
A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. RAINFALL
COULD BECOME HEAVY WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE IMPACTING THE STATE.
THIS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING... ESPECIALLY
OVER AND NEAR RECENT AND OLDER BURN SCARS. ISOLATED LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH UP TO 6 INCHES NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MOST LIKELY AREA
TO SEE THIS MUCH RAIN WILL BE OVER THE UPPER GILA REGION OF THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE WHITEWATER BALDY BURN SCAR
COMPLEX...FOLLOWED BY THE LITTLE BEAR BURN SCAR AREA. A FEW STORMS
MAY ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY FLOODING
THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637.

$$

40







Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
715 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

NMZ505>509-519>526-533-536>540-170330-
ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-
DE BACA COUNTY-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
GUADALUPE COUNTY-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBUQUERQUE...LOS LUNAS...RIO RANCHO...
CARRIZOZO...CLINES CORNERS...EL MORRO...ELK...FORT SUMNER...GALLUP...
GLENWOOD...GRAN QUIVIRA...GRANTS...MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...PICACHO...
PORTALES...QUEMADO...ROSWELL...RUIDOSO...SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST...
TIJERAS...SANTA ROSA...SOCORRO
715 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.NOW...
A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED AND NEARLY SOLID AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WAS CENTERED ROUGHLY ON AND UP TO 25 MILES OR SO EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM THE CIBOLA CATRON COUNTY LINE TO ABOUT 5 MILES NORTH OF
MOUNTAINAIR TO CAUSEY IN EASTERN ROOSEVELT COUNTY. THIS AREA WAS
DRIFTING TO THE EAST OVERALL...BUT TRYING TO EDGE NORTHWARD A BIT
NEARER THE ARIZONA LINE AND A BIT TO THE SOUTH NEARER THE TEXAS
LINE. SOUTH OF THIS AREA AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE OTHER SCATTERED
TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST...WHILE
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DRIFTING MORE TOWARD
THE EAST. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP ON OCCASION IN
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS OVERALL RAIN AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THROUGH MID EVENING THIS RAIN AREA SHOULD STAY NEAR TO SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM ZUNI PUEBLO TO ALBUQUERQUE OVER TO BROADVIEW IN CURRY
COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO AS MUCH AS A THIRD OF AN INCH...THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE INCH COULD ACCUMULATE WITH ANY
STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP. QUEMADO...PIETOWN...LUNA...RESERVE...
BELEN...BERNARDO...SOCORRO...MOUNTAINAIR...RUIDOSO...CARRIZOZO...
CORONA...FORT SUMNER...PORTALES...MILNESAND AND ROSWELL ARE AMONG
THE LOCALITIES TO BE AFFECTED.

$$





Flash Flood Watch

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
354 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

NMZ524>526-539-540-171100-
/O.EXB.KABQ.FF.A.0015.140916T2200Z-140918T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
354 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW
  MEXICO...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY...
  SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS... SOUTHWEST
  CHAVES COUNTY AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY.

* THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING

* TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN NEW
  MEXICO TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF
  WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER LINCOLN AND FAR
  SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTIES. THESE AREAS WERE ALREADY IMPACTED
  WITH RAIN FROM LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL
  RAINFALL OVER THESE SATURATED AREAS WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT
  FLASH FLOODING THREAT.

* THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE ESPECIALLY HIGH DOWNSTREAM OF
  THE LITTLE BEAR AND WHITE BURN SCARS IN LINCOLN COUNTY. ABRUPT
  FLOWS OF WATER...ASH...AND DEBRIS COULD DEVELOP AFTER HEAVY
  DOWNPOURS IMPACT THE AREA. RESIDENTS AND TRAVELERS THROUGH THE
  WATCH AREA SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AS FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE
  ISSUED LATER ON TODAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$



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Page last modified: May 16, 2007
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