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Hydrologic Outlook

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
KSC005-043-103-MOC003-021-033-041-047-089-095-107-165-177-195-
021444-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
944 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK FOR THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...

...Missouri River near St Joseph...Atchison...Leavenworth...Sibley...
Napoleon...Waverly...Miami...Glasgow

This hydrologic outlook is based on the forecast rainfall for the
next 24 hours and estimated runoff from earlier rainfall. Crests may
vary if actual rainfall or runoff is greater or less than
anticipated.

Location: Missouri River at St Joseph
Flood stage: 17.0 feet
Latest stage: 12.9 feet at 8 AM Wednesday
Forecast crest: 24.0 feet Friday Oct 03
At 17.0 feet...Lowland flooding upstream and downstream from St.
Joseph occurs.

Location: Missouri River at Atchison
Flood stage: 22.0 feet
Latest stage: not available
Forecast crest: 24.7 feet Friday Oct 03
At 25.0 feet...A castings plant in Atchison is affected by flood
waters.

Location: Missouri River at Leavenworth
Flood stage: 20.0 feet
Latest stage: 10.0 feet at 9 AM Wednesday
Forecast crest: 22.0 feet Friday Oct 03
At 22.3 feet...Water enters Riverfront Park in Leavenworth. In
addition, 2nd Street at the waste water treatment plant is closed due
to high water. Persons should vacate the park to avoid the loss of
life and property.

Location: Missouri River at Sibley
Flood stage: 22.0 feet
Latest stage: not available
Forecast crest: 24.0 feet Saturday Oct 04
At 22.0 feet...Low-lying rural areas along the river and outside of
levee protection flood.

Location: Missouri River at Napoleon
Flood stage: 17.0 feet
Latest stage: 11.2 feet at 9 AM Wednesday
Forecast crest: 21.6 feet Saturday Oct 04


Location: Missouri River at Waverly
Flood stage: 20.0 feet
Latest stage: 14.5 feet at 8 AM Wednesday
Forecast crest: 23.9 feet Saturday Oct 04
At 23.5 feet...Rural areas along the river which are not protected by
levees flood.

Location: Missouri River At Miami
Flood stage: 18.0 feet
Latest stage: not available
Forecast crest: 22.8 feet Sunday Oct 05


Location: Missouri River at Glasgow
Flood stage: 25.0 feet
Latest stage: 15.7 feet at 8 AM Wednesday
Forecast crest: 25.4 feet Sunday Oct 05
At 25.0 feet...Farmland along the river floods.

Later statements...possibly warnings...may be issued as additional
information becomes available.

$$





Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
445 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-020945-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
445 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS THIS
 MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER
 IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THIS ROUND OF STORMS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
 WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN STORMS ARE NOT
 EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
 EASTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
 DEVELOP AS SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS
 A TORNADO OR TWO. AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EASTWARD INTO WESTERN
 MISSOURI THEY ARE EXPECTED TO FORM A LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING
 THE MAIN THREAT.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

 THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY OVER MOST OF THE
 AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STORMS ALONG THE
 COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF
 PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION... PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
 ALSO POSSIBLE WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IMAGES/FXC/EAX/EM1/EAX-EMBRIEFING1.PDF

$$








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