Hydrologic Outlook

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
MNC001-017-021-031-035-061-071-075-115-137-WIC003-007-013-031-051-
099-113-129-200900-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
355 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

...A STORMY AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND LATE THIS WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING...

NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL BE IN A PROLONGED
AND POTENTIALLY VERY WET WEATHER PATTERN LATE THURSDAY AND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO
PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL
PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR SEVERAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EACH ROUND COULD BRING SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

HOWEVER...EACH SUBSEQUENT ROUND OF STORMS COULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING THE ABILITY OF THE SOIL TO EFFICIENTLY
ABSORB ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...AND OVERALL RESULT IN AN INCREASING
SUSCEPTIBILITY TO FLASH FLOODING FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS PROLONGED STORMY PERIOD...AND SOME AREAS COULD GET
OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN.

LOW LYING AREAS...HILLY TERRAIN...CREEKS AND SMALL STREAMS...AND
URBAN AREAS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO GET AFFECTED BY ANY
FLASH FLOODING. IF ENOUGH RAINS FALL OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHLAND...THEN THERE COULD BE FLOODING ON SOME MAIN STEM RIVERS.

$$

GROCHOCINSKI

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
351 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-201130-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
351 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE MINNESOTA PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE
ARROWHEAD.  A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE ARROWHEAD...PRODUCING
LIGHTNING...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH.  ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES APPEAR LOW...A SHORT-LIVED SEVERE
STORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SEVERAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE
BEST CHANCE OF STORMS IS STILL DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...BASED ON CURRENT DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE DULUTH CWA... AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THERE IS A
RISK THAT SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.  ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THE
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CAN BE FOUND IN THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK.

ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND IS STRONGLY URGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION AND BE PREPARED FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SPOTTER ACTIVATION APPEARS LIKELY AT SOME POINT IN THE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD.

$$