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Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1238 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-181945-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
1238 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.NOW...
THE FRONT EDGE OF A SYSTEM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMING IN OFF
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS BEGINNING TO REACH LAKE COUNTY AS OF 12:30
PM.  WHILE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THEMSELVES ARE MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH NORTHEAST...THE ENTIRE SYSTEM IS MAKING ITS WAY EAST INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
FARTHER INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AS THE AFTERNOON PASSES...BUT THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST AND MOVE NORTHWARD UP THE COAST.  THIS
TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE LARGE SYSTEM MOVING IN OFF
OF THE GULF.  ACTIVITY WILL BE MOSTLY SHOWERS THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON...BUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO AND SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE.


&&

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...INCLUDING GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/BLOG.PHP

$$





Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
208 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-190000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
208 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARDS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN
GULF. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO PUSH ONSHORE NEAR TAMPA
AND WILL BEGIN TO ENTER LAKE COUNTY BETWEEN 4 AND 5 PM BUT
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE AND ARRIVE IN EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLIER. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR LAKE COUNTY UNTIL 8 PM FOR STORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND QUARTER-SIZED OR LARGER HAIL. A MORE
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS FOR POINTS EAST OF LAKE COUNTY THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE PENINSULA.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW THIS AFTERNOON`S AND EVENING`S
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2
INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AND MAY CAUSE NUISANCE FLOODING OF
STREETS AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PUSH THIS ACTIVITY OFF TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 35
KNOTS. STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS INLAND LAKES AND EVENTUALLY
OFFSHORE.

.WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
STORMS MOVING OFF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY
ACQUIRE ROTATION AND PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS DUE INCREASING WIND SHEAR.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET WINDS HAVE BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH THIS MORNING. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 7 FEET NEARSHORE AND 7 TO 8 FEET OFFSHORE. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH
OF SEBASTIAN INLET...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS
SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
EASTERLY SWELL AND THE RECENT FULL MOON WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT
IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY. CHECK
WITH LIFEGUARDS ABOUT OCEAN HAZARDS WHEN ARRIVING AT THE BEACH AND
SWIM ONLY WHERE THERE IS A LIFEGUARD ON DUTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE
STATE BY SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
PENINSULA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. BRISK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING UNFAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY...WITH A NORTH NORTHEASTERLY WIND
SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

$$

MOSES/BOWEN














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