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Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
933 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-040200-
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
933 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
AGAIN AHEAD OF A FRONT FORECAST TO ENCROACH UPON THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH EARLY WEDNESDAY. SO...FOR TODAY...THE WIND FLOW ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL TEND TO
SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. STORMS WILL
INCREASE INITIALLY FROM THE WESTERN COAST AND INCREASE IN NUMBER
AND INTENSITY AS THEY WORK THEIR WAY TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
BOUNDARY MERGERS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF ORLANDO WHERE STORMS MAY
BECOME QUITE STRONG LATER IN THE DAY. THE MERGERS WILL PROVIDE
ENHANCED LIFT AND AN OPPOSING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE MAY EVEN ADD OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND
TURBULENT DOWNDRAFTS.

STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED BRIEF WATERSPOUT OR TORNADO.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
MERGING BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF ORLANDO LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCAL STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES.
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
THE SURF ZONE IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY AS IN
PREVIOUS DAYS. HOWEVER...A SMALL OCEAN SWELL WILL STILL BRING SOME
CONCERN DURING THE TIME OF OUTGOING TIDE.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
BUOYS OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE
GULF STREAM AND OFFSHORE.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
STORMS WILL FORM OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TEND
TO FOCUS TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND THEN PUSH OFFSHORE. SOME STORMS
WILL BECOME STRONG DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTS TO 34 KNOTS AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INCREASING AND BRING A GREATER
CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING STORMS INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS
FORECAST THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

$$

DS/UPDATE RW




Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AMZ550-552-555-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-032300-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
315 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.NOW...

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
AT AROUND 25 MPH.

A DEEP WESTERLY STEERING WIND OF OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL PUSH SHOWERS
AND STORMS QUICKLY TO THE EAST THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE EVENING. THE STRONG DEEP WIND PROFILE MAY HAMPER COVERAGE OF
STRONG STORMS BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO ACHIEVE ANY VERTICAL
EXTEND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THAT SHOULD NOT ACCUMULATE VERY MUCH DUE TO THE
FAST STORM MOTION...FREQUENT LIGHTING STRIKES ESPECIALLY FOR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND SMALL HAIL.

IF OUTDOORS KEEP A SHARP WEATHER EYE ON BOTH THE SKIES AND RADAR FOR
STORMS THAT WILL BE ON TOP OF YOUR AREA VERY FAST AND SEEK SHELTER
INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING.

STORMS CROSSING OVER LARGE INLAND LAKES...THE INDIAN RIVER LAGOON...
THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY AND INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS OVER 34 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THAT
WILL BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO A MILE OR LESS ON THE WATER.

BOATERS SHOULD KEEP A SHARP WEATHER EYE ON BOTH THE SKIES AND RADAR
FOR STORMS THAT WILL BE ON TOP OF THEM VERY FAST AND HEAD BACK TO
PORT.

ANY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND APPROACHING THE OCEAN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
ACQUIRE LOW LEVEL ROTATION THAT WILL ENHANCE WINDS...RAINFALL...
LIGHTNING AND EVEN FUNNEL CLOUD AND WATER SPOUT FORMATION.

&&

Additional details...including graphics are available online at:
http://www.weather.gov/mlb/?n=blog

$$





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