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Flood Watch

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
255 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
ON FRIDAY...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS IT DOES SO...A
LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE
REGION RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 4
INCHES OVER FLORIDA AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN GEORGIA AND 2 TO 3
INCHES ELSEWHERE. ISOLATED SPOTS COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 6 INCHES OF
RAIN. ONGOING RIVER FLOODING WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING NEAR SENSITIVE RIVERS AND STREAMS.

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-182000-
/O.CON.KTAE.FA.A.0001.140418T0600Z-140419T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENTERPRISE...OZARK...FORT RUCKER...
DALEVILLE...HEADLAND...ABBEVILLE...GENEVA...HARTFORD...SAMSON...
SLOCOMB...MALVERN...TAYLOR...ASHFORD...DOTHAN...KINSEY...
COWARTS...WEBB...COTTONWOOD...REHOBETH...DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...
HUDSON...BONIFAY...CRYSTAL LAKE...CHIPLEY...FIVE POINTS...
MARIANNA...GRACEVILLE...MALONE...SNEADS...YOUNGSTOWN...
BLOUNTSTOWN...WHITE CITY...WEWAHITCHKA...QUINCY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
TALLAHASSEE...SPRING HILL...MONTICELLO...MADISON...GREENVILLE...
SWEETWATER...CRAWFORDVILLE...PERRY...MIDWAY...MAYO...CROSS CITY...
FREEPORT...SANTA ROSA BEACH...PANAMA CITY...PARKER...
PORT SAINT JOE...APALACHICOLA...CARRABELLE...SOPCHOPPY...
SAINT MARKS...KEATON BEACH...STEINHATCHEE...SUWANNEE...
GEORGETOWN...FORT GAINES...CUTHBERT...SHELLMAN...ARLINGTON...
MORGAN...EDISON...LEARY...DAWSON...ALBANY...LEESBURG...
SMITHVILLE...SYLVESTER...ASHBURN...TIFTON...FITZGERALD...OCILLA...
DOUGLASVILLE...BLAKELY...COLQUITT...NEWTON...CAMILLA...PELHAM...
MOULTRIE...ADEL...SPARKS...NASHVILLE...DONALSONVILLE...
BAINBRIDGE...CAIRO...THOMASVILLE...QUITMAN...VALDOSTA...LAKELAND
255 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014 /155 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
  COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY AND HOUSTON. IN FLORIDA...
  CALHOUN...CENTRAL WALTON...COASTAL BAY...COASTAL DIXIE...
  COASTAL FRANKLIN...COASTAL GULF...COASTAL JEFFERSON...COASTAL
  TAYLOR...COASTAL WAKULLA...GADSDEN...HOLMES...INLAND BAY...
  INLAND DIXIE...INLAND FRANKLIN...INLAND GULF...INLAND
  JEFFERSON...INLAND TAYLOR...INLAND WAKULLA...INLAND WALTON...
  JACKSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...SOUTH WALTON
  AND WASHINGTON. IN GEORGIA...BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...
  BROOKS...CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...
  DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...
  MILLER...MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...
  THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER AND WORTH.

* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT

* WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED...
  WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 6 INCHES.

* THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE FELT NEAR AREA
  RIVERS CURRENTLY IN OR NEAR FLOOD STAGE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
  AND SOUTH GEORGIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$


BLOCK










Hydrologic Outlook

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-180800-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
115 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014 /1215 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

...RIVER FLOODING OUTLOOK FOR APRIL 18TH TO APRIL 25TH...

A GULF LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A BAND OF 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS TO AROUND 5 OR 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BAND OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND
AS A RESULT THERE IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EVENTUAL RIVER
CRESTS. HOWEVER...THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN SHOULD PRODUCE RISES ON MANY AREA RIVERS. A GENERAL OUTLOOK
FOR SOME OF THE MAJOR AREA RIVERS IS INCLUDED BELOW.

ADDITIONALLY...THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO
THE WORSENING OF EXISTING AREAS OF HIGH WATER OR FLOODING OUTSIDE
OF THE PRIMARY RIVER CHANNELS. THE CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ARE IN THE 95TH TO 99TH PERCENTILES FOR
MID-APRIL...INDICATING THAT MOST LOCATIONS CANNOT HANDLE MUCH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

 * SOUTHEAST ALABAMA:

   ALL RIVERS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA ARE CURRENTLY BELOW FLOOD
   STAGE BUT HAVE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED FLOWS. THEREFORE...IT WOULD
   TAKE MORE RAINFALL TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON MAIN-STEM RIVERS IN
   THIS PARTICULAR AREA THAN FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WHERE FLOODING
   IS ALREADY OCCURRING. IN GENERAL...RAINFALL OF AROUND 2 INCHES
   WOULD PRODUCE SOME RISES ON LARGER RIVERS LIKE THE UPPER
   CHOCTAWHATCHEE AND THE PEA RIVER...BUT CRESTS WOULD LIKELY
   BE BELOW FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...RAINFALL OF 3 TO 4 INCHES
   COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME MINOR FLOODING ALONG PARTS
   OF THE UPPER CHOCTAWHATCHEE AND PEA RIVERS. THEREFORE...THE
   HEAVIEST BAND OF RAINFALL WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO BE CENTERED
   NEAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA TO PRODUCE RIVER FLOODING.

 * THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE:

   FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG SOME PARTS OF THE LOWER
   CHOCTAWHATCHEE...CHIPOLA...AND APALACHICOLA RIVERS. AS OF
   NOON THURSDAY...BOTH THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER NEAR BRUCE AND
   THE CHIPOLA RIVER NEAR ALTHA WERE IN MODERATE FLOOD STAGE.
   FOR MANY OF THESE RIVERS...RAINFALL OF AROUND 2 INCHES WOULD
   LIKELY KEEP RIVER LEVELS RELATIVELY STABLE OR PRODUCE SLIGHT
   RISES. IN OTHER WORDS...THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD LIKELY
   MAINTAIN EXISTING FLOODING ON THE LARGER RIVERS. SOME SMALLER
   STREAMS AND CREEKS COULD HAVE MORE NOTABLE RISES WITH JUST 2
   INCHES OF RAIN. HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES
   WOULD PRODUCE FURTHER RISES ON THE MAIN-STEM RIVERS MENTIONED
   EARLIER...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL MODERATE
   FLOODING ON THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER...AS WELL AS THE
   CHIPOLA RIVER NEAR ALTHA. SUCH TOTALS COULD ALSO CAUSE THE
   LOWER PORTION OF THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER NEAR BRUCE TO
   APPROACH OR REACH MAJOR FLOOD STAGE.

 * THE FLORIDA BIG BEND:

   AS OF NOON THURSDAY (TODAY)...MOST OF THE RIVERS IN THIS
   AREA ARE BELOW FLOOD STAGE BUT HAVE ELEVATED FLOWS. PARTS
   OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE HAVANA AND
   CONCORD POINTS...WILL LIKELY REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE WITH
   EVEN LOWER RAINFALL TOTALS OF OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. HEAVIER
   TOTALS AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE BASIN COULD PRODUCE
   SOME RISES TO AROUND MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. SLIGHTLY FURTHER
   EAST...THE AUCILLA RIVER AND ST. MARKS RIVER ARE CONTINUING
   TO SLOWLY RISE FROM PREVIOUS RAIN. CURRENT TRENDS...COMBINED
   WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL SHOULD CREATE FLOODING ALONG BOTH
   RIVERS. IN GENERAL...MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
   AUCILLA RIVER WITH MODERATE FLOODING ALONG THE ST. MARKS.
   HEAVIER RAINFALL OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OR MORE COULD ALSO
   PRODUCE FLOODING ALONG SOME SMALLER RIVERS LIKE THE
   ECONFINA...SOPCHOPPY...AND STEINHATCHEE.

 * THE SUWANNEE RIVER:

   FLOW CONTINUES TO BE ROUTED DOWN THE SUWANNEE RIVER AND
   FROM TRIBUTARY RIVERS SUCH AS THE WITHLACOOCHEE AND ALAPAHA
   RIVERS. EVEN WITHOUT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...THIS ROUTED FLOW
   WOULD LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ALONG
   THE SUWANNEE RIVER. THIS WOULD PROBABLY BEGIN AT ELLAVILLE
   NEAR THE CONFLUENCE WITH THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER EITHER
   LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY...AND THEN GRADUALLY WORK ITS
   WAY DOWN THE RIVER TO POINTS FURTHER SOUTH. ADDITIONAL
   RAINFALL COULD OBVIOUSLY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER CRESTS OR
   MORE PROLONGED FLOODING...BUT THE OVERALL EXPECTATION IS
   THAT MINOR FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR AT MOST SPOTS FROM
   ELLAVILLE SOUTHWARD.

 * SOUTHWEST GEORGIA:

   AS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...MOST RIVERS IN THIS AREA ARE
   CURRENTLY BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THEREFORE...IT WOULD LIKELY
   TAKE MORE RAINFALL HERE THAN IN AREAS IN THE FLORIDA BIG
   BEND AND PANHANDLE TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON MAIN-STEM RIVERS.
   FOR THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER AROUND LOWNDES AND BROOKS
   COUNTIES...RAINFALL OF AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES SHOULD BE
   SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING. ON PORTIONS OF THE
   FLINT RIVER...HEAVIER RAINFALL CLOSER TO 4 INCHES WOULD
   LIKELY BE NECESSARY TO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING. OTHERWISE
   LESS RAINFALL COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME RISES...BUT CRESTS
   WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT OF FLOOD STAGE. AT THE KINCHAFOONEE
   CREEK NEAR DAWSON...2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN COULD PRODUCE
   SOME MINOR FLOODING...WITH 4 INCHES OR MORE LIKELY TO
   CREATE MORE SIGNIFICANT RISES. ON OTHER SMALLER RIVERS...
   STREAMS...AND CREEKS AROUND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...RAINFALL
   TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CREATE
   INCREASED FLOWS AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF FLOODING...WITH
   THE CHANCES INCREASING MORE FOR RAINFALL OF 3 TO 4 INCHES
   OR MORE.

FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS...REFER
TO OUR AHPS PAGE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK (ALL LOWERCASE):

HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=TAE

OR USE THE SHORT LINK (ALL LOWERCASE):

HTTP://1.USA.GOV/1J81E3W

$$

08-LAMERS






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