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2 products issued by NWS for:

Hydrologic Outlook

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-
060500-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
200 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

...ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING THIS SPRING...

...EXISTING CONDITIONS...

IN THE ALTAMAHA...SATILLA AND ALAPAHA BASINS...

RAINFALL SINCE OCTOBER 1ST 2014 ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAS
BEEN ABOVE NORMAL WITH RAINFALL SURPLUSES OF 2 TO 6 INCHES AND THIS
HAS LED TO MULTIPLE MINOR FLOOD EVENTS ALREADY THIS PAST WINTER.
STREAM FLOWS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND MINOR FLOODING IS ALREADY
ONGOING DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH.

IN THE UPPER SUWANNEE AND ST. MARYS BASINS...

RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS HAS BEEN GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH RAINFALL SURPLUSES OF 2 TO 6 INCHES...MAINLY LOCATED IN THE
HEADWATERS OF THESE BASINS OVER THE OKEFENOKEE SWAMP. THIS HAS LED
TO ABOVE NORMAL STREAM FLOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND NEAR BANKFULL
CONDITIONS DURING SEVERAL OCCASIONS THIS PAST WINTER.

IN THE SANTA FE BASIN...

RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS HAS GENERALLY BEEN BELOW NORMAL
WITH RAINFALL DEFICITS UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES BELOW NORMAL AND THIS HAS
KEPT CURRENT STREAM FLOWS NEAR NORMAL AFTER A LONG PERIOD OF WET
CONDITIONS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF 2014. ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON HOW HIGH THE SUWANNEE BASIN WOULD GET TO
CREATE BACKWATER PROBLEMS IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE SANTA FE
BASIN.

IN THE BLACK CREEK BASIN...

RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS HAS GENERALLY BEEN NORMAL TO BELOW
NORMAL WITH RAINFALL DEFICITS UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES BELOW NORMAL AND
THIS HAS KEPT CURRENT STREAM FLOWS NEAR NORMAL AFTER A LONG PERIOD
OF WET CONDITIONS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF 2014.

...LONG TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

THE ONE MONTH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MARCH INDICATES A GREATER
THAN 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS WHICH SUGGESTS THE MORE
ENERGETIC PATTERN EXPERIENCED IN LATE FEBRUARY WILL CONTINUE INTO
MUCH OF THE MONTH OF MARCH. THE LONGER RANGE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
FEATURES NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTHS OF APRIL AND MAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TYPICALLY DECREASES AFTER EARLY
APRIL AS THE REGION TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF A DRIER PATTERN AS
INFLUENCES FROM FRONTAL SYSTEMS DIMINISH.

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK SUMMARY...

TAKING INTO ACCOUNT LONG TERM ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION...RECENT RAINFALL AND CURRENT STREAM FLOWS...THERE IS
AN ABOVE NORMAL POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
SPRING. THIS RISK IS MAXIMIZED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND INLAND
NORTH FLORIDA...WHICH INCLUDES THE ALTAMAHA...SATILLA...ALAPAHA...
ST. MARYS AND UPPER SUWANNEE BASINS. IN THESE SPECIFIC
BASINS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT BASIN-WIDE FLOOD EVENT
THIS SPRING SHOULD HEAVIER THAN NORMAL RAINFALL OCCUR...AS STORAGE
CAPACITY IN THE HEADWATER PORTION OF THESE BASINS IS ESPECIALLY LOW.

SHOULD NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE
THE CONTINUED WET CONDITIONS WILL KEEP AN INCREASED FLOOD RISK FOR
OUR AREA RIVERS MOVING INTO HURRICANE SEASON IN JUNE.

&&

$$

HESS/GODSEY




Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1044 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-061545-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
1044 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
ALTAMAHA....SATILLA AND LITTLE SATILLA RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT AREA BEACHES
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF A LATE SEASON LIGHT FREEZE FREEZE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT.

MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
ALTAMAHA....SATILLA AND LITTLE SATILLA RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

$$




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