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Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1100 AM MST FRI JUL 1 2016

AZZ004>018-037>040-021200-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
1100 AM MST FRI JUL 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN TODAY WILL BE YAVAPAI AND SOUTHWEST
COCONINO COUNTIES...WHERE CLEARING SKIES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WILL GIVE WAY TO AN UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AND LIFTING ASSOCIATED
WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL UP TO
QUARTER SIZE AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS STILL POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...THE
INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED DUE TO MORNING
SHOWER ACTIVITY SUPPRESSING DIURNAL HEATING AND THEREFORE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED FROM THE
GRAND CANYON SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT MORE ISOLATED NEAR-SEVERE HAIL...UP TO QUARTER SIZE IN
THE STRONGEST STORMS...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS REPLACING THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE
BEGINNING SUNDAY AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA DROP OFF SUBSTANTIALLY BY MONDAY...WITH ONLY THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS RETAINING CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

$$




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