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2 products issued by NWS for: Rogers AR

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
119 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-170630-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
119 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014


THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND LATE TONIGHT
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

DISCUSSION...
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINED POSITIONED
OVER THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS MAINLY FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND DISTURBANCE
COULD CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GREATER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO BE ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. INSTABILITY INTERACTING WITH THE DISTURBANCE COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS
WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES QUICKLY RETURN AND INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A MORE DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE FRONT
AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SATURDAY ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$







Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
122 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-162000-
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
122 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.NOW...

AT 1:22 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADARS DETECTED A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...MAINLY WITHIN WASHINGTON...MADISON...AND
FRANKLIN COUNTIES. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAD BEEN OBSERVED. ALL
THIS ACTIVITY WAS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST...AROUND 25 MILES
PER HOUR.

THROUGH 3:00 PM...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG...WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...WITH UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

$$

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