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Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
457 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-061015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
457 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015


THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
        AREA...GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM NOWATA TO MCALESTER
        ONSET...LATE EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM NOWATA TO MCALESTER.
ONSET...LATE EVENING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA. AN
ISOLATED STRONG STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER... THE MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL FOCUS
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS... SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD
OF THIS ACTIVITY... WHICH WILL REDUCE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA FROM
LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FROM MID WEEK THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
REGION. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS WEST AND NORTH OF
THE REGION... HOWEVER... THERE WILL REMAIN AT LEAST A LIMITED RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY. THE MAIN
UPPER LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND... WHICH
MAY INCREASE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AS WINDS ALOFT
STRENGTHEN. ADDITIONALLY... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
LIKELY... RAISING FLOODING CONCERNS.


WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$







Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
334 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-052245-
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
334 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.NOW... AT 3:30 PM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA... GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 75. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ALSO
OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE PRECIPITATION WAS MOVING NORTH AT
AROUND 30 MPH.

THROUGH 5:30 PM... SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.


AVERAGE HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ARE
ANTICIPATED. THE STRONGEST SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM HOWEVER... MAY
PRODUCE A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH.


$$











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