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Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
507 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-021000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
507 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL INCREASES THROUGH THURSDAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER IN FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL POSE VERY LITTLE SEVERE RISK.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SURFACE BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. IF A STORM DOES FORM...VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE
MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL DEVELOP
FARTHER NORTH INTO KANSAS CLOSER TO A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.

ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...AND WILL POSE A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE HAIL AND WIND.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY THRU TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NEIGHBORING AREAS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STILL
UNCERTAIN TO SOME DEGREE. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR PROBABLE THAT A
LINE OF STORMS WILL ORGANIZE EITHER ALONG OR AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND SWEEP ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...WITH LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY EARLY ON IN THE EVENT BEFORE CELLS BEGIN TO
MERGE.

WITH A MORNING ROUND OF STORMS COMBINED WITH THE STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL...ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH TO 2 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$

LACY






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