U.S. Department of Commerce
	          National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
	     National Weather Service, Arkansas Red River Forecast Center
		        10159 East 11th Street, Suite 300
			   Tulsa, Oklahoma  74128-3050
			
	Water Supply Outlook                                      June 6, 2009

	Most of the Arkansas River headwaters in Colorado saw some relief from
	a dry winter and spring. May precipitation totals were well above average
	through-out southeast Colorado.  The headwaters of the Purgatoire River 
	basin were the only exceptions.  The wet weather in May nudged the water 
	supply forecasts higher on the mainstem of the Arkansas River. 
	
	Forecasts on the mainstem of the Arkansas River remain about average. 
	However, forecasts for the Purgatoire River and for some smaller headwater 
	basins in Colorado remain dramatically below average.       

	Seasonal runoff (April-September) is forecast to be 106 percent of 
	average for the Arkansas River at Salida and 99 percent of average 
	below Pueblo Reservoir. Runoff from Grape Creek, and the Cucharas and 
	Huerfano Rivers is forecast to be 101, 75, and 77 percent of average 
	respectively. Chalk Creek is forecast to provide 115 percent of average 
	runoff.  Runoff from the Purgatoire River is forecast to be 66 percent 
	of average. 

	The last 2009 water supply forecast for the Canadian River basin in 
	New Mexico was issued last month. That forecast called for seasonal 
	runoff (March-June) to be significantly below-average. Rayado and 
	Ponil Creeks are forecast to be 37 and 31 percent of average 
	respectively. The Vermejo, Mora and Cimarron Rivers are forecast to be 
	47, 28, and 43 percent of average. 

	Water-year-to-date (October-May) precipitation in Colorado has improved 
	but generally decreases from north to south.  Reports range from 161 
	percent of average at Salida to 66 percent of average at Culebra.  
	Snowpack above Salida as measured by NRCS snotel sites, is 54 percent of 
	average. In the Purgatoire River basin the snow pack is effectively gone.

	New Mexico's water-year-to-date precipitation varied greatly as well. 
	The water-year precipitation in the mountains ranged from 113 percent of 
	average near North Costilla to 65 percent of average further south near 
	Chacon. Snowpack as measured by NRCS snotel sites in the Canadian 
	River basin was gone in early May.

	Reservoir storage in the Arkansas River system is 120 percent of last 
	year at this time and 128 percent of average.

	The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues three-month temperature and 
	precipitation outlooks for the nation.  The outlooks call for 
	significantly increased chances (40-50%) of above-normal temperatures in 
	Colorado and New Mexico. These outlooks for June through August indicate 
	there are for equal chances of below-normal, above-normal, and normal 
	precipitation in both Colorado and New Mexico. 
	 

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