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408
AXPZ20 KNHC 260254
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN OCT 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEEN WORKING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 10N94W TO DRIVE
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS MAY BE TEMPORARILY JUST BELOW GALE FORCE
CURRENTLY...BUT OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE HIGH PRES
OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST
THROUGH SUN...ALLOWING GAP WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW INTO THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC BY MIDDAY SUN...AND BELOW 20 KT THROUGH MIDDAY
MON. SEAS ARE AT LEAST 14 FT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN SHORT PERIOD
NE SWELL REACHING DOWNSTREAM OVER 500 NM TO THE SW AND
INCREASINGLY MIXING WITH LONGER PERIOD SW SWELL. WAVE HEIGHTS IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 8 FT BY MON
AFTERNOON AS WINDS DIMINISH.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO ACROSS PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA TO 11N86W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N94W 1010 MB TO 09N112W
TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N130W 1010 MB TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS 83W AND
90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NW QUADRANT AND
240 NM SW QUADRANT OF LOW PRES NEAR 10N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM SW QUADRANT OF LOW PRES NEAR 09N112W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN
120W AND 128W.

...DISCUSSION...
1020 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 25N124W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
SOUTHEASTWARD TO 17N105W. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS PERSIST
OVER WATERS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. A
COLD FRONT LIES TO THE W OF THE HIGH FROM 30N125W TO 23N140W.
EARLIER ASCAT SATELLITE PASSES INDICATED MODERATE TO FRESH
BREEZES NEAR THE FRONT LIKELY IN NW SWELL. A JASON-2 PASS FROM
15 UTC REVEALED SEAS ABOVE 8 FT BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH SUN MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING...AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL MERGE WITH THE LARGER
SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE NW. THE NW SWELL CURRENTLY BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL OUTRUN IT LATER TODAY AND BRING SEAS IN THE 8-14 FT
RANGE TO MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 115W THROUGH MON
MORNING.

SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRES ARE NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH. CONVECTION IS MOST PREVALENT NEAR THE WESTERN LOW PRES
SYSTEM NEAR 13N130W...ENHANCED IN PART BY UPPER TROUGHING W OF
THE AREA AND THE FACT THAT THE LOW IS UNDER THE REAR RIGHT
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER JET ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH.

FARTHER EAST...BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXTENDS OVER THE
EASTERN WATERS BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR IN THE
CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N80W AND EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT ALONG THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THERE IS AMPLE
MOISTURE HERE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 50
MILLIMETERS S OF PANAMA. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE HERE THROUGH SUN AND DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ON
MON.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



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