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538
AXPZ20 KNHC 241538
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON NOV 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A GALE TO MINIMAL
STORM FORCE WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO THAT WILL BRIEFLY STALL THROUGH MIDDAY
TUE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THE FRONT SE OF THE GULF ON WED AND INDUCE
NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WED. THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED
TO REACH GALE FORCE CONDITIONS BY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
MINIMAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS BY WED MORNING THROUGH THU
MORNING WITH GALE CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH SAT MORNING.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS...WAVEWATCH3 GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEAS RANGING FROM 20 TO 23 FT. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 24/0600 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W ALONG 11N91W 9N105W TO NEAR
THE 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N112W. ITCZ BEGINS S OF LOW NEAR 9N114W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N127W TO 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE 1009 MB LOW OVER NE
SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 2N-5N AND
WITHIN 180 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 114W AND 118W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 105W AND 108W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1030 MB HIGH IS LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 36N130W AND EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 12N120W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE ITCZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG NE TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FROM 10N TO 23N W
OF 125W. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MIGRATE EASTWARD THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS AND
DIMINISHING THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS SLIGHTLY BY
LATE TODAY. THIS IS ALSO INCREASING THE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WHERE THERE ARE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WITH SEAS
GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA STARTING LATE
TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH
MOUNTAIN PASSES ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONGER.

A NEW COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NW WATERS LATE TUE
REACHING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION BY LATE TUE
NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT COVERING THE FAR NW AREA WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10FT.
THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL TO THE
FORECAST WATERS. THE NW SWELL ALREADY IN PLACE AND NE WIND WAVES
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 08N W OF 117W WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 8-
10 FT RANGE THROUGH TUE.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 14N111W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR
11N114W WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. THE
TROUGH/LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS OF MAINLY 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS OF
8 TO 9 FT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES.

LOOKING AHEAD...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...EXPECT STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
BEGINNING WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING WITH POSSIBLE FRESH
TO STRONG NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF FONSECA.

$$
PAW



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