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[Printable]
538
AXPZ20 KNHC 300232
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE WARNING...THE REMNANT LOW CENTER OF MARIE IS LOCATED NEAR
30N133.5W AT 1003 MB. A SHALLOW STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IS STILL
SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING WITHIN 500 NM OF THE SE
SEMICIRCLE AND MULTILAYERED MAINLY STRATOFORM CLOUDS ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WITHIN 500 NM OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTS FROM 150 TO 270 NM N OF THE CENTER
AND WELL N OF THE LOCAL WATERS. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS WITHIN 210 NM ACROSS THE N SIDE OF THE
CENTER...AND A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 06 UTC
SAT...WHEN THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT N AND OUT OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE NW REACHING 32N BY LATE SAT. ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS AND 8 FT OR LESS BY 48 HOURS ACROSS
THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...
EXTENDING FROM A WEAK LOW CENTER NEAR 12N97W N-NE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE FAR W BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE WAVE HAD
BEEN MOVING W-NW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AT 20-25 KT THE PAST 24
HOURS...BUT THE S PORTION OF THE WAVE IN THE EPAC IS NOW MOVING
W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 92W AND 102W. THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO TRACK
DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY
HAS SHIFTED W-NW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEW LOW PRES NEAR 12N97W
1008 MB TO 10N120W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING
ON TO 12N136W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED N OF 08N TO COASTS BETWEEN 80W AND 95W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N
AND 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 97W AND 110.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES PERSISTING N OF THE AREA NEAR 41N135W LAST NIGHT HAS
COLLAPSED AS A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE NE PACIFIC...WITH A
NEW HIGH NOW TO THE W AND WELL N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS EXTENDS
A NARROW RIDGE E TO NEAR 37N140W AND THEN DRAPES ACROSS AND TO
THE N OF THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...THEN S-SE TO NEAR 20N122W.
MEANWHILE TROUGHING HAS SET UP ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO. A
MODEST PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS AND RESULTANT SEAS 6 TO 8 FT JUST W
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE THESE
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY NW.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO THE NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
STRIPLING



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