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209
WTNT24 KNHC 220254
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092014
0300 UTC WED OCT 22 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
CELESTUN TO FRONTERA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CELESTUN TO FRONTERA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N  92.9W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N  92.9W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N  93.2W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.4N  92.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.4N  91.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 19.4N  90.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.4N  88.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.0N  86.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N  84.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 18.5N  83.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N  92.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





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