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085
WTPZ22 KNHC 210832
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
0900 UTC SUN SEP 21 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 110.5W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  45SE  30SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 110.5W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 110.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.9N 111.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.1N 113.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.0N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 21.5N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.3N 116.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 19.0N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 110.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





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