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229
WTPA45 PHFO 241508
TCDCP5

TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  44
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP022014
500 AM HST FRI OCT 24 2014

THE APPEARANCE OF A WARM SPOT IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY PLUS A 1239Z
TRMM PASS AVAILABLE ON THE FNMOC/NRL WEB SITES REQUIRED A LAST
MINUTE ADJUSTMENT TO THE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF ANA. THE TRMM
PASS SHOWED A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A SMALL CONVECTION
FREE CIRCLE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ANA IS STRONGER THAN THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES...WHICH NOW RANGE FROM
1.5/25 KT TO 2.5/35 KT. RELATIVELY WEAK WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACCORDING TO THE LATEST UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS
ESTIMATES CONTINUES IN THE VICINITY OF ANA. THE MOST RECENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS THAT ANA IS NO LONGER ENTRAINING DRY AIR
INTO ITS NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE MOST RECENT OBJECTIVELY-BASED
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS SUGGEST AN INTENSITY OF
42 TO 50 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL BE
INCREASED TO 50 KT.

THE LATEST ESTIMATES OF FORWARD MOTION FOR ANA APPEAR TO SHOW THE
SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE NORTH. AS A RESULT...
THE LATEST FORWARD MOTION IS 010/07 KT. THERE HAVE BEEN ONLY SUBTLE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK FOR ANA. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FROM THE
DYNAMICAL AND GLOBAL MODELS REMAINS RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH
36 HOURS. THESE MODELS ARE RESPONDING TO A FLATTENING OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF ANA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS IN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN...ANA WILL LIKELY BE CARRIED RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY
DEEP MID-LATITUDE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST
SHOWS ANA/S FORWARD MOTION HAS BEEN REDUCED SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TO CONFORM TO THE LATEST CONSENSUS...THAT IS
TVCN...GUIDANCE. NOTE THAT THE 48...72 AND 96 HOUR FORECAST
POSITION...INTENSITY AND RADII ARE PER GUIDANCE FROM THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER /OPC/. BASED ON THIS GUIDANCE... EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS...WITH ANA
COMPLETING THE TRANSITION BY DAY 2.

EVEN THOUGH ANA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER
OCEAN WATERS...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL
CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS IN THE SHORT-TERM. AS ANA TRANSITIONS TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW...BAROCLINIC PROCESSES ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW ANA
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY...WITH WIND RADII EXPANDING RAPIDLY MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AS THE LATITUDE OF THE SYSTEM
INCREASES. BY DAY 5...FORMER ANA MAY DISSIPATE OVER THE WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM OPC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 28.6N 169.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 30.3N 168.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 32.9N 165.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 36.4N 160.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 39.6N 154.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  27/1200Z 46.5N 138.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  28/1200Z 48.9N 130.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON







National Weather Service
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