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453
WTNT45 KNHC 020236
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
1000 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

The depression appears to be gradually organizing this evening as
deep convection has developed over the eastern portion of the large
circulation.  Last-light visible satellite pictures suggested that
the center of the depression has likely reformed farther north,
which is not surprising given that the depression is still in its
formative stage.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the depression in a few hours, and this
should assist in determining the center position overnight.  Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB still support an initial wind speed of
25 kt.

Although the depression is forecast to strengthen some on Tuesday,
moderate northwesterly shear and dry mid-level air are likely to
inhibit significant intensification before landfall.  None of the
reliable intensity models show much strengthening and the NHC
forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory.

The somewhat uncertain initial motion is 310/9 kt.  The dynamical
model guidance indicate that the depression will turn west-
northwestward on Tuesday to the south of a mid-level ridge along the
northern Gulf of Mexico coast.  The guidance is in good agreement on
this scenario and the NHC track is close to the middle of the
guidance envelope.  The updated NHC forecast track is slightly north
of the previous advisory due to the more northward initial position.
Once inland, the cyclone is forecast to quickly dissipate over the
mountains of eastern Mexico.

The primary threat from this system is expected to be heavy
rainfall, which is likely to cause flash-flooding and mud slides
over portions of eastern Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 21.0N  93.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 21.7N  95.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 22.3N  96.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 22.7N  98.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown




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