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WTPA42 PHFO 300830
TCDCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
1100 PM HST TUE JUL 29 2014

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE WEST AT
ABOUT 6 KT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED AROUND ALL BUT EAST AND
NORTHEAST QUADRANTS...MAKING THE LLCC EASY TO FIND. CIMMS ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT SHEAR REMAINS LOW...AROUND 8 KT...CORROBORATING THE
DECENT OUTFLOW SEEN IN SATELLITE LOOP THROUGH ALL BUT THE EAST
QUADRANT. CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS OF 2.0 FROM CPHC AND SAB
CORROBORATE WHAT SEEMS TO BE A SLOW CONSOLIDATION OF GENEVIEVE...AND
WE FEEL THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN 12
HOURS.

THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWING BAMM AND BAMS GUIDANCE WHICH HAVE DONE THE BEST
JOB SO FAR WITH THE GENEVIEVE TRACK OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS
TRACK LIES ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DEPICT WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION OF A
WEAKENING SYSTEM...WHICH IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST OF SLIGHT STRENGTHENING. THUS HAVE OPTED TO SIDE
MORE CLOSELY WITH THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...MOST OF WHICH
INDICATE SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. GENEVIEVE MOTION TOWARD THE
WEST HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY SINCE THE LAST BULLETIN AND THIS IS
REFLECTED AT ALL TAU ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.

SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CAP GENEVIEVE STRENGTH AT ABOUT 40 KT
AFTER 36 HOURS IN SPITE OF A LACK OF DEBILITATING SHEAR AND LITTLE
OR NO DIFFERENCE IN SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. MIMIC-TPW AND
RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW NARROW SWATHS OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
ENTRAINING AROUND THE SYSTEM. THIS ALONG WITH WARMER THAN CONDUCIVE
AIR ALOFT AS WELL AS LIMITED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SEEM TO BE THE
LIMITING FACTORS FOR GENEVIEVE DEVELOPMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND 48 HOURS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WITH GUIDANCE OTHER THAN SHIPS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0900Z 12.9N 149.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 13.0N 149.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  31/0600Z 13.1N 151.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  31/1800Z 13.2N 152.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  01/0600Z 13.4N 153.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  02/0600Z 13.8N 155.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  03/0600Z 14.3N 158.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  04/0600Z 14.8N 161.3W   25 KT  30 MPH

$$
FORECASTER POWELL/JACOBSON








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