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513
ACUS11 KWNS 231130
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231129
INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-231330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1439
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL/SWRN INDIANA/WRN KY/SERN MO/NERN AR/NWRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231129Z - 231330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE MID MS/LOWER OH
VALLEY AREA MAY CONTINUE TO EXPAND/STRENGTHEN.  ASSOCIATED INCREASE
IN SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY FROM SRN IL/SWRN INDIANA SWWD INTO SERN
MO...WITHIN A ZONE OF QG ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING
MOVING SEWD ACROSS IL/MO ATTM.  SOME HI-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR A CONTINUED INCREASE OF SWD
TO SWWD-PROPAGATING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THOUGH CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT EXISTS.  SHOULD THIS
SCENARIO EVOLVE -- WHICH APPEARS AT LEAST POSSIBLE GIVEN ONGOING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AMPLE INSTABILITY/PW AND INCREASING FLOW
ALOFT SPREADING ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION...AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 07/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   39148678 38698612 36868683 35788977 35849137 36499137
            37318996 38988758 39148678




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