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493
ACUS01 KWNS 251939
SWODY1
SPC AC 251937

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER PARTS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING.

...DISCUSSION...
ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK -- WITH A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING
STRIKES OBSERVED THUS FAR FROM ERN AR INTO NRN MS -- IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MAIN CENTER OF CIRCULATION ALOFT NOW MOVING ESEWD
ACROSS NERN AR.  EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED/ADDITIONAL STRIKES TO OCCUR
AS LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION -- AIDED BY DIURNAL HEATING BENEATH COLD
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES -- CONTINUES SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

..GOSS.. 01/25/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
WRN RIDGE-ERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY THIS PERIOD AS NRN
AR UPR VORT CONTINUES E INTO THE MID-TN VLY BY EVE...AND UPSTREAM
JET STREAK NOW OVER OK DIGS SE INTO E TX/LA. THE THUS-RECONFIGURED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD THEN CONTINUE ESE INTO WRN GA BY 12Z
MON...ASSUMING A NEARLY-NEUTRAL TILT.

AT LWR LVLS...BROAD SFC CIRCULATION NOW CENTERED NEAR ST LOUIS
SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP ESE AND GRADUALLY TIGHTEN WITH TIME...WITH A
TENDENCY FOR INCREASED TROUGHING/PRESSURE FALLS TO EXTEND SSW FROM
THE CENTER LATER TODAY. THE LOW SHOULD REACH THE SRN APPALACHIANS
EARLY MON AS A SECONDARY CENTER OF CIRCULATION BEGINS TO EVOLVE
ALONG THE NC CST.

...TN VLY/SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TNGT...
A BAND OR TWO OF CONVECTION...POSSIBLY INCLUDING WDLY SCTD /
EPISODIC TSTMS...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MS
AND TN VLYS...IN ZONE OF STRONGEST DCVA AHEAD OF LEAD UPR VORT. THE
BANDS SHOULD EVOLVE THIS AFTN ALONG PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE
AXIS NOW OVER THE MS DELTA REGION OF NE AR-NW MS...AND/OR ALONG
STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT JUST TO ITS WEST...WITH THE ACTIVITY MOVING
E OR ESE WITH THESE FEATURES INTO EARLY TNGT.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SCANT. BUT SIMULTANEOUS ARRIVAL
OF STRONG MID-LVL FORCING AND COLD ADVECTION /500 MB TEMPS FALLING
TO AOB MINUS 20 C/ WITH QUASI-LINEAR LOW-LVL UPLIFT SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION THAT COULD SUFFICIENTLY DEEPEN
TO YIELD SPORADIC THUNDER. STRENGTH AND UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF LOW
TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW /WITH 500 MB SPEEDS APPROACHING 100 KTS IN
MS/...FURTHER SUGGESTS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF
LOCALLY DMGG WIND. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND COMPARATIVELY COOL
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS SHOULD...HOWEVER...LIMIT DURATION/EXTENT OF
ANY SVR THREAT.




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