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937
FOPZ11 KNHC 310836
PWSEP1

TROPICAL STORM VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
0900 UTC FRI OCT 31 2014

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 10.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)

SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)

LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)

LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

CULIACAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)

MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)

SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)

P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)

MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  24(26)   4(30)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)

ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)

ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   8(16)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

CLIPPERTON IS  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)  20(31)   1(32)   X(32)
CLIPPERTON IS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
CLIPPERTON IS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



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