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223
FXUS02 KWNH 200535
PREEPD

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
134 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VALID 12Z THU OCT 23 2014 - 12Z MON OCT 27 2014


...HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

RELIED ON THE EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE--PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF ITS REASONABLE DEPICTION OF THE
RECURVATURE OF THE LOW EMERGING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
ACROSS WESTERN CUBA. THIS LOW--WHICH COULD WELL BE TROPICAL IN
NATURE--ALONG WITH THE POLAR FRONT LYING ZONALLY TO ITS NORTH ARE
KEY FEATURES FOR WHAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
SENSIBLE WEATHER THREAT AT THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE SPRAWLING VORTEX
SLOWLY DISENGAGING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP
THE COLD RAINS FALLING OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF
WEEK--WITH THE ATTENDANT POLAR FRONT BOTTOMING OUT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. THAT FRONT WILL AFFORD AN EFFICIENT OVERRUNNING
SURFACE FOR THE TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE
CARIBBEAN SEA, WITH SOUTHERN FLORIDA--PARTICULARLY THE
KEYS--LIKELY TO RECEIVE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL.

THE OTHER AREA OF FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, WHERE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOAKING RAINS
FROM THE CASCADES TO THE COAST ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE OFFSHORE
LONGWAVE TROUGH.


CISCO

$$





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