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367
FXHW01 KWNH 231211
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
811 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

VALID 00Z THU JUL 24 2014 - 00Z THU JUL 31 2014


THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL DATA CYCLES TO RELY UPON AS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE FOR HAWAI`I
AT THE MEDIUM RANGE. NO SOONER HAVE THE TRADES RESUMED IN THE WAKE
OF WALI, THEN THE TAIL END OF A SPLITTING TROUGH APPROACHING NORTH
AMERICA IS PROGGED TO RETROGRESS ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE MOISTURE WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS NOT SIGNIFICANT,
SO ONLY EXPECT A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT IN BOTH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS FROM THE NORMAL TRADE-INDUCED RAINFALL.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH THIS WEEKEND, THE TRADES SHOULD
RESUME. THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE NEXT
WEEK. WITHOUT THE EXPANSION OF THE DEEP-LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE
VIA SUCH A SYSTEM, THE ISLANDS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE ZONAL
PLUME. SEVEN-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF A TENTH
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGHOUT THE ISLANDS, WITH THE HIGH
TERRAIN ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND PERHAPS NETTING
UPWARDS OF TWO INCHES.


CISCO

$$





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