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487
AGPN40 KWNM 171352
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
652 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

A LOW PRES CENTER JUST CONTS TO DRIFT ENE TWDS THE OFSHR WTRS
WITH WINDS UP TO PRIMARILY 20-25 KT AFCTG THE NW PZ6 AND SW MOST
PZ5 WTRS PRETTY MUCH AS PREVLY FCSTD. MAX ASCD SEAS ARE LKLY IN
THE 8-11 FT RANGE WHICH ARE BEING HANDLED WELL BY THE 06Z
WAVEWATCH III AND 00Z ECMWF WAM MDLS AT THE MOMENT.

OVER THE SHORT TERM...ALL OF THE LATEST MDLS ARE IN RSNBLY GOOD
AGRMT THAT THE SFC LOW WL DRIFT E ACRS THE NRN PZ5 WTRS LATE TODAY
THRU THU WHL SLOWLY WKNG. WITH THE 06Z NAM/GFS SMLR TO THEIR PREV
RESPECTIVE RUNS SEE NO REASON TO REPOPULATE THE PREVLY USED BLEND
OF THE 00Z GFS 30M AND 00Z ECMWF BL WINDS FOR THIS SYSTEM AND WL
CONT TO FCST MAX ASCD WINDS GNRLY IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. SO
OTHERWISE NO SIG SHORT TERM CHNGS ARE PLANNED TO THE PREV OFSHR
FCSTS.

IN THE LONG RANGE...BY LATE FRI/FRI NITE THE LATEST MDLS CONT TO
FCST A STRENGTHENING NNWLY GRADIENT TO DVLP ACRS THE NRN PZ6 AND SE
PZ5 WTRS BTWN A HIGH PRES RIDGE BLDG ACRS THE PZ5 WTRS AND A
STRENGTHENING INLAND CALIFORNIA SFC TROF. A COMPROMISE BTWN THE
STRONGER 00Z/06Z GFS/00Z GEM AND WEAKER 00Z NAVGEM/UKMET/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS GRADIENT STIL LOOKS RSNBL. THEREFORE WL CONT
WITH THE PREVLY BLENDED 00Z GFS 30M AND 00Z ECMWF BL WINDS FOR
THIS GRADIENT. THEN BY LATER SAT/SAT NITE ALL OF THE LATEST MDLS
FCST THIS GRADIENT TO WEAKEN FLWD BY THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT
APRCHG FM THE W LATE SUN AND MOVG INTO THE FAR NW PZ5 WTRS LATE
SUN NITE. OVERALL THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS REPRESENTATIVE FOR
SAT THRU SUN NITE AND WL CONT TO USE ITS BL WINDS TIME SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY FASTER SUN/SUN NITE FOR THE FROPA. SO NO MAJOR LONG RANGE
CHNGS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT OFSHR FCST PACKAGE.


-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

0445Z HI RES ASCAT PASS RETURNED MAX WINDS UP TO 25 KT MAINLY
OVER COASTAL WATERS S OF PT CONCEPTION. GFS AND RAP WINDS AND
ALSO TYPICALLY HIGHER GLOABL GEM WINDS HAVE BEST HANDLE HERE.
00Z MDLS NAMELY GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT OVER
THE E PACIFIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY MINOR DETAIL
DIFFERENCES. FIRST WITH STRENGTH OF PRE FRONTAL WINDS OVER PZ6
WATERS TDA AND TNGT WHERE GFS CONTINUES TO BE JUST SLIGHLY
HIGHER THAN ECMWF AS WELL AS REMAINING GUIDANCE. THE PREVIOUSLY
FAVORED 50/50 BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF STILL LOOKS REASONABLE WITH
S TO SE WINDS UP TO 25 KT GENERALLY FROM PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO
JUST N OF PT ST GEORGE. 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BOTH MOVE
WEAKENING SFC LOW E ACROSS OFFSHORE WATERS TOWARD CAPE MENDOCINO
TDA INTO THU BEFORE IT DROPS S AND SE JUST OFF THE CA COAST LATE
THU THRU FRI.

BY FRI INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS E TOWARD PZ5 AND NRN
PZ6 WATERS 00Z MDLS UNANIMOUSLY INDICATE THAT COASTAL TROF WILL
AMPLIFY WITH LOW PRES DVLPG ALONG N CA COAST. AS A RESULT MDLS
ALSO AGREE THAT N WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT MAINLY OVER
INNER WATERS CAPE MENDOCINO TO FLORENCE OR. AS RIDGE THEN BREAKS
DOWN LATE SAT AND SAT NGT THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH. 00Z ECMWF
THEN TRENDED SLOWER WITH APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT LATE SUN
AND SUN NGT. 00Z GFS/00Z UKMET ARE ABOUT 6 HRS FASTER THAN 00Z
ECMWF/00Z GLOBAL GEM. FOR SAT THRU REMAINDER OF FORECAST PLAN TO
USE 00Z ECMWF BUT WITH FROPA WILL TIME SHIFT GRIDS THREE HRS
FASTER TO COME UP WITH TIMING COMPROMISE.

00Z MULTIGRID WAVEWATCH III HAS HAD PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON E
PACIFIC SIG WV HGTS OVER PAST SEVERAL HRS. MWW3 IS ONLY PERHAPS
A FT OR SO LOW S OF PT CONCEPTION WHERE 9 FT WAS REPORTED AT
BUOY 46219 AT 06Z. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN 00Z MWW3 AND
00Z ECMWF WAVE MDL SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE
TWO THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER VUKITS/CLARK. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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Last Modified: August 31, 2005
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