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296
AGPN40 KWNM 260306
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
806 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

THE IR SAT IMG SHOW NO CONV CLDS OVR THE REGION BUT UPSTREAM IS A
HUGE BAND OF CONV CLDS ASSTD WITH A FRNTL BNDRY OVR THE ERN PAC
WITH TS ANA TO THE S OF IT. THERE IS ALMOST NO LGHTNG OVR THE
REGION AND THE RADAR DOES NOT SHOW ANY TSTMS CELLS OVR THE WTRS.
AT 00Z INLAND LOW PRES 987 MB OVR WASH STATE WHILE A CLD FRNT LIES
ACRS THE SRN WTRS. HGH 1025 MB W OF THE SRN WTRS XTNDS RIDGE INTO
THE REGION. THE PRES GRDNT THO STILL TIGHT OVR THE NRN WTRS...THE
OBS SHOW THAT WINDS HV NOW DIMINISHED TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE.
THE LAST ASCAT PASS OVR THE REGION WAS AT 1900Z AND IT HAD STRNG
GALE FORCE WINDS OVR THE NRN WTRS. THE SEAS ARE ALSO HGHST OVR THE
NRN WTRS WITH 20 FT PEAKS. THE NWW3 FITS VERY WELL WITH THE OBS
SEAS PATTERN AND HAS BEEN QUITE CONSSTNT AND IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE
ECMWFWAVE AND SO WILL USE IT.

THE MDLS ARE STILL IN GUD AGRMNT AND SO WILL CONTNE WITH GFS FOR
THIS UPDATE. IN THE SHORT TERM HGH PRES WILL REMAIN ACNCHORED TO
THE W BUT WILL MOVE E AND ITS CNTR WIL BE CLOSER TO THE SRN WTRS
WITH A RIDGE ACRS THE REGION. HGH WILL WEAKEN IN THE XTDD PRD AND
ALLOW A FRNT TO MOVE S. TS ANA WILL ALSO BE MOVING CLSR TO THE
REGION BUT WILL BE XTRA TROPICAL LOW SEE LTST ADV BY HONOLULU
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURR CNTR. THE INLAND LOW PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER
INLAND WHILE A STRNG FRNTL BDNDRY THAT WILL COMBINE WITH TS
EVENTUALLY WILL RACE TO THE NW OF THE WTRS AND ALLOW ITS ASCCTD
CLD FRNT TO REACH THE NRN WTRS THEN PUSH SE INTO THE CNTRL WTRS
WHERE IT WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME WEAK BUT STILL MOVE INTO THE
SRN WTRS.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

POTENT LOW PRES WAS CENTERED JUST E OF THE PZ05 WTRS AROUND 20Z.
IT WL CONTINUE TO EJCT NNE WHILE WEAKENING OVR THE NXT SVRL HRS.
THIS WL ALLOW WNDS TO DCREASE TO BLO GL FORCE LTR TONITE. CAN NOT
RULE OUT A FEW TSTMS OVR THE WTRS EARLY AS TROF MOVES E OUT OF
AOR. HI PRES W OF THE PZ06 WTRS WL THEN DRIFT E AND MEANDER THRU
MIDWEEK KEEPING THINGS QUIET FOR THE PZ06 WTRS. ATTENDANT RIDGE WL
BUILD INTO THE PZ05 WTRS EARLY SUN INTO MON BEFORE BREAKING DOWN
AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW...EXTRATROP ANA...LATER MON. A COLD FRONT
WL DROP SE THRU THE PZ05 WTRS LATER MON INTO TUE AND HANG UP
ACROSS THE NRN PZ06 WTRS INTO MID WK. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WK...MDLS SIGNALING THAT A RATHER VIGOROUS LOW PRES SYS WILL BE
CENTERED VERY NEAR THE NRN WTRS WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT SET TO
SWEEP THRU A MAJORITY OF THE OFFSHORES. STAYED WITH THE GFS THIS
PACKAGE AS THERE WAS PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER GLBL
MDLS THRU WED.

.SEAS...HV HAD TO ADJUST AREAS AND INCREASE SEAS SVRL FT OVR THE
WAVE MDLS ALL DAY TODAY...AS XPCTD W/A PROGRESSIVE RAPIDLY
EVOLVING SYS. WAM AND WW3 APPEAR TO BE ADJUSTING NOW AS THE SYS
BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...AS LOW APPROACHES THE COAST
TONIGHT ESTOFS SUGGESTING SURGE UP TO ONE FOOT WITH STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW ALONG COASTAL WASHINGTON.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE TONIGHT.
     GALE MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.PZZ900...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
.PZZ805...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE TONIGHT.
     GALE MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU.
.PZZ905...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
.PZZ810...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE MON.
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU.
.PZZ910...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE MON.
.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU.
.PZZ915...OUTER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE MON.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER MUSONDA/LEE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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Last Modified: August 31, 2005
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