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377
AGPN40 KWNM 161002
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
302 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

A WK WRM FNT IS LIFTING N OF THE WTRS ATTM...OTRW EPAC HIGH
EXTENDING A RDG ACRS SRN PZ5 AREA AND FAR NW PZ6 WTRS COMBINED
WITH A TROF NR CA CST ARE PRODUCING SUSPECTED NLY GALES OFF NRN
AND CENTRAL CA CST MOSTLY AFFECTING THE INNER ZONES CLOSER TO CSTL
WTRS. THE PTRN IS SIMILAR TO THAT SEEN IN EARLIER ASCAT-A PASS AND
BEST REPRESENTED BY 00Z GFS 30M BL WNDS. EVENING ASCAT-A AND B
PASSES MISS MUCH OF THE OFSHR WTRS. THIS PTRN IS EXPECTED TO WKN
AS A SERIES OF STRONGER FNTL SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NRN
WTRS WED NIGHT THRU SUN...WITH THE STRONGEST EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
GALES N OF CAPE SHOALWATER FRI NIGHT WITH MDT TO HI LVL OF
CONFDC...GIVEN MDL PERSISTENCE AND AGRMT. ONE WRINKLE IS 00Z GFS
WHICH ALONE HINTS AT MRGL GALE FRC BL WNDS DVLPG LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT
IN PZ5 WTRS BTWN A RDG AND A LOW FRMG ON FIRST COLD FRONT CROSSING
WTRS. THIS APPRS TO BE OUTLIER...SPRTD BY ONLY A COUPLE OF GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND NOT SPRTD BY OTHER MDLS. LIMITED WNDS TO 25
KT AS IN PREVIOUS WEAKER AND FASTER FNTL PASSAGE.

OTRW POPULATED USING 00Z GFS...INITIALLY USING THE 30M WNDS FOR
THE NLY FLOW THRU WED NIGHT THEN CONTD WITH GFS THRU SUN
NIGHT...EXCP USED 50/50 BLEND OF GFS WITH 00Z ECMWF FOR A PERIOD
SAT NGT AND SUN DUE TO MDL DIFFERENCES IN DVLPMT OF PSBL SECONDARY
LOW BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NW OF WA WTRS.

SEAS...00Z ENP WW3 AND 00Z ECMWF WAM ARE SIMILAR AND LOOK
RSNBL...BUT AFTER 12Z THU USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE TWO MDLS WHEN
THEY DVLP DIFFERENCES INCLUDING THOSE MENTIONED ABV.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH
AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
.PZZ900...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PZZ825...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
     GALE EARLY TODAY.

$$

.FORECASTER BANCROFT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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