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872
AGPN40 KWNM 200303
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
803 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM THE EARLIER FCST FOR THE EVE
UPDATE. WE WILL MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJ NR CWF AND TAFB GRIDS TO FIT
A LITTLE BETTER TO THE ONGOING FCST BUT OTW PRETTY MUCH LV PREV
FCST ALONE FOR THE EVE UPDATE. A COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING AS IT
HEADS E TOWARD THE COASTAL WTRS THIS EVE WITH A LOW PRES TROF
LOCATED TO THE W OF THE NOCAL...OREG..WASH OFF WTRS. AN
INTENSIFYING LOW IS MOVG E FROM THE WRN GULF OF AK. THE ACTIVE WX
PATTERN OVR WTRS FROM NOCAL NORTHWARD WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WK WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY LTR IN THE WK.

SEAS...SEA HTS RANGE FROM 5 TO 7 FT OVR SOCAL WTRS TO 17 FT OVR NW
WASH OFF WTRS PER THE LATEST OBS AND RP1 SEA STATE ANALYSIS. AGAIN
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE EVE UPDATE WITH MINOR ADJ TO FIT
NEARBY CWF AND TAFB FCST AND LATEST CONDITIONS NOTED JUST PRIOR TO
FCST ISSUANCE.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A CD FNT WAS MOVG E OVR THE ERN WA/OR/NRN CA WTRS. HAV NOT SEEN
ANY OBS WITH GALE FORCE INADVOF FNT OVR THE OFFSHR WTRS. PLAN TO
HAV WINDS TO 25 KT AS 30 KT WINDS NOW OVR WTRS MOV E WITH THE
FNT. GFS MDL GUID HAS GALES E OF FNT OVR THE WA WTRS AND ENDING
THIS AFTN AS FNT MOVS EWD AND SLOWLY WKNS. MDLS CONT TO HAV A WELL
DEFINED TROF MOVG E OVR THE NRN OFFSHR WTRS LATER TNGT/EARLY MON
AND WEAKENING. WL HAV WINDS TO 20 KT OR 25 KT ASSOC WITH THE TROF.
ANOTHER CD FNT APPROACHES THE NRN OFFSHR AREAS MON NGT...AND MOVS
ACRS THE WA/OR WTRS TUE AND INTO NRN CA WTRS WTRS WED. MDLS CONT
TO SHOW DIFFS WITH DVLPG LOW PRES THAT MOVS NE OVR THE WA/OR WTRS
TUE NGT AND WED. GFS IS STGST WITH ASSOC WINDS WHEREAS THE ECMWF
IS ILL DEFINED WITH ANY DVLPG LOW. ATTM PREFER THE UKMET WHICH
TRACKS THE LOW INTO THE WTRS LATE TUE AND TUE NGT. THE GEM IS
SOMEWHAT SMLR TO THE UKMET...ALTHO SLOWER. PLAN TO LIMIT WINDS TO
35 KT FOR NOW WITH CONFDC NOT HIGH WITH THIS SYS. WITH REGARDS TO
SEAS WL USE WWIII ENP...ALTHO WL LWR SEAS BY ROUGHLY 20 PERCENT FM
LATE TUE INTO WED. THE ECMWF WV GUID LOOKS TOO LOW AND WL NOT USE
WITH THIS PACKAGE FOR THIS TIME PD. BY LATE WED INTO THU GFS IS
STGR WITH SWLY FLOW THAT AFFECTS THE NRN OFFSHR WTRS. PLAN TO
FAVOR THE UKMET/ECMWF WHICH ARE WKR. THE GEM IS WKR AS
WELL...ALTHO STGR WITH WINDS ASSOC WITH A FNT THAT IT MOVS INTO
THE OR/NRN CA WTRS. NOT CONFIDENT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE FLOW
AND WL DISCOUNT FOR NOW. FOR LATE FRI INTO FRI NGT PLAN TO FAVOR
THE UKMET WITH SUPPORT FM THE GFS WITH LOW PRES THAT MOVS SE INTO
THE OR/NRN CA WTRS. THE ECMWF TRACKS LOW PRES NE INTO THE NRN CA
WTRS LATE FRI...BUT WL DISCOUNT THIS FOR NOW.

.SEAS...12Z WWIII ENP WL BE BLEND 50/50 WITH THE 12Z ECMWF THRU
12Z TUE...THEN WL USE WWIII INTO 00Z THU WITH SEAS BEING LWRD BY
20 PERCENT OR SO. AFTWD WL USE A BLEND OF 50/50 THE REMAINDER OF
FCST PD...ALTHO CONFDC IS NOT PARTICULARY HIGH.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...NA

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.PZZ805...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE TUE.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.PZZ810...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE TUE.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.PZZ910...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE TUE.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER MILLS/ROWLAND. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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