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775
AGPN40 KWNM 230210
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
710 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FCST ANTICIPATED ATTM. WILL LEAVE HEADLINES
AS IS FOR THIS PACKAGE...AND WAIT FOR 00Z GLOBAL MODELS TO COME IN
BEFORE DECIDING IF CHANGES ARE NEEDED.

SEAS...ENP VERSION OF WWIII WITHIN A FT OR TWO OF CURRENT OBS. DID
INCR SEAS BY 10 PERCENT IN THE GALE AREA ALONG THE NRN CALIF COAST
THU NIGHT. OTW...NO CHANGES.


-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LATEST SAT PIX SHOWS WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CA
WATERS. THE OBS INDICATE SEAS GENERALLY 3-6 FT ACRPSS ENTIRE MIM
AREA WITH MAX OF 7 OR 8 FT. THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER THE EPAC HAS
NOT CHANGED MUCH DURING THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. THERE IS STILL
THE POSS OF GALE CONDITIONS ALONG NRN CA CST THU INTO SAT NIGHT.
MY CONFIDENCE THAT GALES WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS IS LOW TO MEDIUM HOWEVER...AS THE STRONGEST GRADIENT
REMAINS IN THE COASTAL ZONES. THE GLOBAL MODELS...IN PARTICULAR
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH JUST SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE BL WINDS. OVR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS A COASTAL TROF WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT
NORTWARD ALONG THE CST. MAX WINDS WILL LIKELY BE FOUND IN THE
COASTAL ZONE ALONG NRN CA CST AND EXTREME INNER PORTION OF INNER
ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS. WILL CONTINUE TO POP THE WIND GRIDS
USING THE GFS 10M THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WILL ENHANCE WINDS FROM
THU THROUGH SAT NIGHT ALONG NRN CA CST BY POP WITH 30M GFS WINDS
DURING THAT PERIOD. ALSO IN ADDITION INCREASED WINDS A BIT IN
ORDER TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND GET GALE CONDITIONS ALONG NRN CA
CST. THE WW3 LOOKS GOOD WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER ACHORN/SHAW. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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Last Modified: August 31, 2005
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