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201
AGAK78 PACR 162259
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

STREAMS AND RIVERS IN VALDEZ/CORDOVA REGION ARE STILL HIGH... BUT
CONTINUE TO FALL. CONTINUED RAIN IN THE SEWARD AREA WILL KEEP STREAM
LEVELS HIGH IN THAT AREA.  HIGH WATER LEVELS... DUE TO RECENT
RAIN... ARE MOVING DOWN THE KENAI RIVER.

FLOOD POTENTIAL IS LOW OVER THE REST OF THE STATE.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

THE BROAD STACKED LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF BY THURSDAY. MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN... MAINLY OVER THE PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND VICINITY. THE PANHANDLE WILL JOIN IN ON THE HEAVY RAIN
PARADE BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES. THE WESTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA WILL RECEIVE UP TO 3 INCHES THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA AND PANHANDLE WILL
RECEIVE UP TO 3 INCHES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

THIS MORNINGS FREEZING LEVELS RANGED FROM 5000 FEET SOUTHWEST TO
8500 FEET NORTHEAST. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE HAD HIGHER VALUES
AROUND 10000 FEET. BY THURSDAY... THE NORTH SLOPE WILL SEE VALUES
DIP TO THE 2000-5000 FOOT RANGE. THE REST OF THE STATE WILL RANGE
FROM 5000-8000 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE.

PRECIPITATION... SELECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE 24 HOURS
ENDING AT 4 AM TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS   24 HR
======== ====                 == ==   =====
VCOA2    VALDEZ               PP RZ :  4.71
EYLA2    EYAK LAKE            PP RZ :  2.31
TTKA2    TATITLEK             PC RM :  2.00
PAWD     SEWARD               PP RZ :  1.96
GROA2    GROUSE CREEK SEWARD  PC RG :  1.72
SUGA2    SUGARLOAF MOUNTAIN   PC RM :  1.70
NUKA2    NUKA GLACIER SNOTEL  PC RM :  1.70
MFBA2    MIDDLE FORK BRADLEY  PC RM :  1.60
UNRA2    UPPER NUKA RIVER     PC RG :  1.57
BGLA2    BERING GLACIER RAWS  PC RG :  1.54
VDEA2    VALDEZ HANDAR        PC RP :  1.49
PATO     PORTAGE GLACIER      PP RZ :  1.49
PEDA2    PEDERSEN LAGOON      PP RG :  1.35
RESA2    RESURRECTION RIVER   PC RG :  1.34
BGLA2    BERING GLACIER RAWS  PP RG :  1.34
PACV     CORDOVA              PP RZ :  1.26
BRMA2    MIDDLE FORK BRADLEY  PC RG :  1.24
HRDA2    HARDING ICE FIELD    PP RG :  1.11
YESA2    MOUNT ALYESKA SNOTEL PC RM :  1.10
GCRA2    GROUSE CREEK DIVIDE  PC RM :  1.10
CORA2    COOPER LAKE SNOTEL   PC RM :  1.10
SRFA2    STRAWBERRY REEF      PC RM :  1.00
PAVD     VALDEZ               PP RZ :  0.99

...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST...ALEUTIANS AND
PANHANDLE. THERE IS INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH SLOPE... AND SOUTH INTO THE INTERIOR.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE.  THERE ARE INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND... SEWARD PENINSULA...
KENAI PENINSULA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HOME PAGE FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

....................................................................

THIS HYDROMET DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED DAILY UNTIL FREEZE-UP BEGINS
IN THE FALL.

A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP

$$

KFM



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