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813
FNUS76 KMFR 170520
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR FOUNDERS DAY...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1020 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2011 PDT ON SEPTEMBER 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE WEST OF THE BURN AREA SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST.
THERE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
(ALTHOUGH THEY MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY AT NIGHT). THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN ON THURSDAY AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVERHEAD WHICH IS GOOD, BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL BE HIGHER THURSDAY AND WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
                    THE AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-72.
MIN HUMIDITY........22 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH 4-7 WITH A FEW GUST TO 12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 16-26 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 IN THE MORNING. 2 IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH 10-20 WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON. EXCEPT FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN A
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-47.
MAX HUMIDITY........89 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3-6 MPH THEN WEST 1-3 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1600 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 10-20 MPH IN THE EVENING, THEN SOUTHWEST
                    7-13 MPH.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH 8-16 GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE EVENING. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. A SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-58.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-66 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....VARIABLE 0-2 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST TO WEST 5-9 MPH.
CWR.................80 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST 3-5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...PETRUCELLI
REQUESTED BY...GREG FUNDERBURK
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20140916.FOUND.01/MFR







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Last Modified: August 31, 2005
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