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FGUS61 KTIR 312227
ESGTIR
WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER, WILMINGTON OH
448 PM EST Saturday, January 31, 2015

THE FOLLOWING IS THE 30-DAY WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY

.WATER RESOURCES STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...
THE TREND IN RECENT MONTHS LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO FEBRUARY. EXPECT STREAMFLOWS TO
REMAIN NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE BASIN FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH AS WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BLOW ACROSS THE BASIN KEEPING THE HEAVIER MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE
BASIN.
.....................................................................

.HYDROLOGIC FLOOD AND DROUGHT POTENTIAL...
POCKETS OF MINOR FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DURING FEBRUARY AS THIS IS VERY
COMMON DURING THE WINTER IN THE OHIO VALLEY WITH INDIVIDUAL STORM SYSTEMS.
HOWEVER, AFTER A BRIEF WET START TO FEBRUARY THE FIRST DAY OR TWO, DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH. SOME POCKETS OF
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
.....................................................................

.PAST 30 DAY HYDROLOGICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL REVIEW...
RAINFALL DEPARTURES...
LIQUID-EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION DURING JANUARY WAS 1-4 INCHES WHICH WAS 60-110
PERCENT OF NORMAL. HENCE, PRECIPITATION WAS NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MOST
OF THE OHIO VALLEY IN JANUARY.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/ohrfc/drought.html

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...
SOIL MOISTURE IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BUT SOME BELOW NORMAL
POCKETS HAVE BEEN FORMING FROM KENTUCKY TO WEST VIRGINIA DURING JANUARY.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/soilmst/w.shtml

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...
STREAMFLOWS IN JANUARY WERE BELOW NORMAL TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND
NORMAL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

http://watermonitor.gov

.....................................................................

.ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION AND OSCILLATION FORECASTS FOR FEBRUARY..

TELECONNECTION/OSCILLATION PATTERN
ARCTIC OSCILLATION WILL SWING FROM NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE BACK AND FORTH
NUETRAL/SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE OVERALL = NEAR TO SLIGHTLY DRIER

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
SWING BACK AND FORTH  BETWEEN POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE
NEUTRAL/SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE OVERALL = NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY DRIER

PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION
GENERALLY POSITIVE DURING FEBRUARY
POSITIVE = DRIER THAN NORMAL

ENSO - EL NINO/LA NINA OSCILLATION
NEUTRAL TO NEAR WEAK EL NINO = NORMAL TO DRIER THAN NORMAL.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov

.....................................................................

.TECHNICAL DISCUSSION...
MOST ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ANOMALIES SUPPORT A CONTINUE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTTERN FOR MUCH OF FEBRUARY KEEPING TEMPERATURES NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHOULD KEEP
FLOOD RISK NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE BASIN.

IT APPEARS THE WINTER OF 2014/15 WILL GO DOWN AS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

.......................................................................

VISIT OUR WATER RESOURCES WEBSITE AT http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/WRO.shtml

IN ADDITION TO A 30-DAY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN A
60- AND 90-DAY OUTLOOK AT THE WEBSITE

$$
Jim Noel



National Weather Service
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Last Modified: August 31, 2005
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