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Drought Information Statement
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520
AXUS74 KLIX 190732
DGTLIX
LAC005-007-033-037-047-051-057-063-071-075-077-087-089-091-093-
095-103-105-109-117-121-125-MSC005-045-047-059-109-113-147-157-
020745-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
132 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXPANDING NORTH AND WEST ALONG THE
GULF COAST...

SYNOPSIS...
A PERIOD OF ABOUT SIX DRY MONTHS OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI HAS PROMPTED A SEVERE DROUGHT CLASSIFICATION /D2/
FOR THE MISSISSIPPI COASTAL COUNTIES AND EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EAST OF A
LINE FROM BOGALUSA TO RACELAND TO EASTERN TERREBONNE BAY LOUISIANA
INCLUDING ALL OF COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.

A MODERATE DROUGHT CLASSIFICATION /D1/ IS NOW NOTED OVER THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN
MISSISSIPPI EXCEPT FOR WESTERN WILKINSON COUNTY MISSISSIPPI.

ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS /D0/ ARE INDICATED OVER WESTERN WILKINSON
COUNTY MISSISSIPPI.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
SHORT TERM IMPACTS ARE MINIMAL DUE TO VEGETATIVE DORMANCY AND
CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL LOW RIVER FLOWS HEADING INTO EARLY
WINTER. MORE IMPACTS CAN BE REALIZED IF DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY GROWING SEASON AND PRESCRIBED FORESTRY BURN SEASON
IN THE LATE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING.

CURRENTLY...THE POPULATION THAT FALLS UNDER THE D2 CLASSIFICATION
IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1,215,906 IN LOUISIANA AND 477,258 IN
MISSISSIPPI...OR A TOTAL OF 1,693,164 BASED ON LATEST CENSUS VALUES.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
DROUGHT CAN BE DIFFICULT TO GAUGE BECAUSE IT CAN SPAN VARIOUS
TIME SCALES. ONE DETERMINANT IS THE STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION
INDEX /SPI/ WHICH TAKES INTO ACCOUNT RAINFALL DEFICITS OR
SURPLUSES OVER VARYING TIME SCALES. THE LONGER RANGE 1 YEAR AND 2
YEAR SPI VALUES ARE NOT TOO INDICATIVE OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER THE SHORTER TERM 3 MONTH AND 6 MONTH SPI VALUES ARE VERY
MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL OVER THOSE TIME RANGES. THIS CAN BE VIEWED
GRAPHICALLY BY VISITING THE WFO NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE WEB SITE
AND CLICKING ON THE TOP NEWS OF THE DAY HEADLINE THAT PROVIDES
BRIEFING SLIDES PERTAINING TO THIS DROUGHT SITUATION.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
THE NOAA 3-MONTH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK INDICATES A 33 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
DROUGHT AREA BETWEEN DECEMBER AND FEBRUARY. TO ACHIEVE THIS...THE
MISSISSIPPI COASTAL COUNTIES WOULD HAVE TO RECEIVE 6 TO 9 INCHES
ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL LEVELS TO DEPLETE THE DROUGHT CONDITION.
NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THESE COUNTIES ARE AROUND 15 INCHES FOR DEC-
FEB.

IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
COUNTIES...THE AREA WOULD HAVE TO RECEIVE 3 TO 6 INCHES ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL OF 16 TO 17 INCHES IN DEC-FEB IN ORER TO OFFSET
THE EXISTING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. SOME PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...NAMELY PEARL RIVER COUNTY...MAY HAVE TO RECEIVE 9
INCHES ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL TO OFFSET THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPERIENCED IN THAT AREA.

THE NOAA 3-MONTH TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES A 40 TO 50 PERCENT
LIKELIHOOD OF MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
GULF COAST REGION THROUGH FEBRUARY.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
ALL STREAMS IN THE OUTLOOK AREA ARE AT OR BELOW BASE FLOWS. SOIL
MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE AMPLE CAPACITY FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL ABSORPTION THROUGH THE END OF THE CALENDAR YEAR.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON FRIDAY DECEMBER 26 2014 OR SOONER
IF NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
SOUTHEAST REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...HTTP://WWW.SRCC.LSU.EDU
LOUISIANA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE...HTTP://WWW.LOSC.LSU.EDU
MISSISSIPPI STATE CLIMATE OFFICE...
HTTP://GEOSCIENCES.MSSTATE.EDU/STATECLIMATOLOGIST.HTM
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS
USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
USACE...HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE
USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS
BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE
COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE OFFICE
PHONE...985-649-0357
PHONE...504-522-7330
SR-LIX.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

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