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962
FXXX12 KWNP 301231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Aug 30 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low.  Regions 2149 (N10W43, Dhc/beta) and 2152
(S17E34, Dao/beta) each produced several low-level C-class flares this
period, the largest of which was a C4 flare from 2149 at 29/1552 UTC.

Region 2149 began to show signs of weakening late in the period while
Region 2152 exhibited a moderate growth trend.  The other regions on the
visible disk were relatively stable throughout the period.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) flare activity over the next three days (30
Aug-01 Sep).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels with a chance for high levels over the next three days
(30 Aug-01 Sep).  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
remain at background levels for the next three days (30 Aug-01 Sep).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters at ACE were indicative of continued coronal hole
high speed stream (CH HSS) effects.  Solar wind speeds were relatively
steady in the 400-450 km/s range.  IMF total field values were steady
near 5-7 nT and Bz varied between +7 nT and -7 nt.  The phi angle was
predominately stable in a positive (away) sector throughout the period,
but showed some deviation to a negative (toward) sector early in the
period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced with wind speeds
in the 375-475 km/s range over the next three days (30 Aug-01 Sep) due
to multiple positive polarity CH HSSs moving into a geo-effective
position.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to continued CH
HSS influence.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels for
the next three days (30 Aug-01 Sep) due to the continued influence from
multiple positive polarity CH HSSs.



961
FXXX10 KWNP 301231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Aug 30 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 30-Sep 01 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 30-Sep 01 2014

            Aug 30     Aug 31     Sep 01
00-03UT        4          2          3
03-06UT        4          4          4
06-09UT        2          3          3
09-12UT        3          3          3
12-15UT        2          3          2
15-18UT        2          2          2
18-21UT        2          2          1
21-00UT        3          3          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 30-Sep 01 2014

              Aug 30  Aug 31  Sep 01
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 30-Sep 01 2014

              Aug 30        Aug 31        Sep 01
R1-R2           10%           10%           10%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



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