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FXXX12 KWNP 230031

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Dec 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 2242 (S17W71,
Ekc/beta-gamma) produced an M1/1f at 22/0149 UTC, as well as several
notable C-class flares. Region 2241 (S10W47, Ehi/beta-gamma), though
still a fairly large spot group, only managed moderate level C-class
activity. Both Regions 2241 and 2242 continued to exhibit penumbral
decay within their intermediate and trailing areas, and had a decrease
in overall areal coverage. Region 2244 (S04E14, Dao/beta-gamma)
exhibited overall areal growth and spot development. It was responsible
for a couple of C-class events early in the period, but has been fairly
inactive the latter half. All other regions on the disk were relatively
quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
levels with a chance for further X-class flaring (R3-Strong or greater)
for the next three days (23-25 Dec) as Regions 2241 and 2242 remain
large and magnetically complex.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained slightly
enhanced at 3 pfu, however it remained well below the 10 pfu (S1-Minor)

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the forecast period (23-25 Dec). There is a chance
for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) on day one (23 Dec)
and a slight chance on days two and three (24-25 Dec) due to the
potential for significant flare activity from Regions 2241 or 2242.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind parameters, measured at the ACE satellite, began the
period still enhanced from the arrival of the 18 Dec coronal mass
ejection (CME). Wind speeds started near 410 km/s before decreasing to
average near 360 km/s through approximately 22/1430 UTC. Total field
averaged near 16 nT with Bz hitting a maximum southward deflection near
-17 nT.

Shortly after 22/1430 UTC, wind speeds increased to near 490 km/s, total
field increased to just under 26 nT, and Bz increased to over 20 nT. The
enhanced conditions are likely associated with the near-miss 20 Dec X1
CME. Additionally, at approximately 22/1700 UTC, a solar sector boundary
crossing (SSBC) was observed, shifting from a positive (away) to a
negative (towards) orientation. Solar wind, Bt, and Bz all remained
enhanced as Earth likely became magnetically connected with a weak,
negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).

ACE/EPAM lower energy particle measurements remained elevated through
the period, likely associated with the 18 Dec CME.

Solar wind parameters are expected to reflect the waning influence of
the 18 Dec CME on day one (23 Dec), followed by the growing influence of
a weak, negative polarity CH HSS. Days
two and three (24-25 Dec) should see quiet to unsettled conditions with
a slight chance for an isolated active period.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field began the period at minor storm (G1-Minor) levels.
Conditions then decreased to quiet to unsettled levels to end the
period, though the potential for higher activity exists.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels,
with isolated minor storm (G1-minor) conditions likely, for day one (23
Dec) as CME effects wane and a weak, negative polarity CH HSS moves into
a geoeffective position. Days two and three (24-25 Dec) are expected to
return to mostly quiet to unsettled levels as CH HSS effects subside.

National Weather Service
Last Modified: August 31, 2005
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