www.srh.weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage   NWS logo
Area Forecast Discussion
Enter Your "City, ST" or zip code   
Current Version              Previous Version:    01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30  
   31  32  33  34  35  36  37  38  39  40  41  42  43  44  45  46  47  48  49  50  51  52  53  54  55  56  57  58  59  60  
[Printable]
674
FXUS61 KBGM 181934
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
234 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, FLURRIES AND PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES FOR THE WEEKEEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE
REMAINING AFTERNOON HOURS INTO TONIGHT. ACARS DATA SHOWS THE
TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION BTWN -7C AND -8C AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE INVERSION HGHT WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSTANT THRU THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES AT THE
TOP BETWEEN -7C AND -9C. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GLACIATION OF
CLOUDS AT THESE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS ALSO A SIZABLE
CHANCE THAT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN SUPERCOOLED. INDEED WRN NY AND WRN
PA ARE NOW SEEING PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. HENCE HAVE
A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NRN PA AND C NY GRIDS. VALLEYS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE PATCHY
DRIZZLE IN THESE AREAS. LATER TONIGHT ALL AREAS FROM THE NRN TIER
OF PA TO C NY WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. SPS RUNS
UNTIL 10 PM. NEXT SHIFT CAN ACCESS WHETHER ANOTHER IS NEEDED.
AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FZDZ WILL BE PATCHY IN NATURE SO
OPTED FOR AN SPS INSTEAD OF A WINTER WX ADVY TO COVER.

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN CLOUDY ACRS ALL OF NE PA AND C NY. THERE WILL
BE SOME PARTIAL CLRG IN NE PA AND SRN SULLIVAN CO WHERE
DOWNSLOPING PREVAILS. THE MOIST LAYER UNDER THE INVERSION WILL BE
A BIT SHALLOWER BUT STILL HAVE CHC FOR FLURRIES AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO FOR MOST OF FRIDAY IN C NY/FAR
NRN PA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...INVERSION IS PUSHED DOWN A LITTLE FARTHER AND
WE WIND DOWN ANY LINGERING SNOW FLURRIES OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN
THE EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER WITH
LIGHT FLOW ALOFT. SATURDAY STILL WILL SEE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUD
COVER ESPECIALLY ACRS SC NY AND NE PA. CLOUDS COULD BREAK UP
MORE FOR SUNDAY AS PER MODEL GUIDC. FOR NOW HAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR SATURDAY AND PC FOR SUNDAY. CERTAINLY THE WEEKEND HOLDS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR BREAKING OUT OF THIS SEEMINGLY NEVER ENDING
CLOUDY PATTERN IN OUR AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...

UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON LOCATION AND STRENGTH
OF STORMS. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT DRY THEN A WEAK WAVE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY
TO TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING SO A MIX OF
PRECIP TYPES. MOST LIKELY SNOW TO RAIN. DEEP SW FLOW SO WARMING
INTO 40S DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES. STRONGER WAVE WITH
A BOMBING COASTAL STORM WILL BRING A SOAKING RAIN WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF CLOSES OFF OVER THE MIDWEST. WED
NGT ENOUGH COLD AIR COMES IN TO CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING AS SNOW SHOWERS THU. A LONG WAY OFF SO THIS TIMING AND
SCENARIO COULD CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1230 PM UPDATE...

WEAK LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE AT SYR/RME. WITH SHALLOW
TRAPPED MOISTURE THE SNOW COULD CHANGE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE. IN
ADDITION A SHORT WAVE LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING DROPS THROUGH
POSSIBLY HELPING THE SHOWERS GET STRONGER. WITH A 300/310 LL FLOW
SNOW SHOWERS COULD GET INTO ITH/BGM.

IN GENERAL MVFR CIGS EVERYWHERE. WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS RME/SYR
COULD FALL TO IFR VSBYS AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS AT RME.

BGM AND ITH HAVE CIGS CLOSE TO 1K FT SO BGM COULD FALL TO IFR NEXT
8 HOURS IN SNOW SHOWERS.

AVP AND ELM HAVE CIGS AROUND 2500 FT. THIS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH
TONIGHT THEN POSSIBLY RISE TO VFR FRIDAY.

W TO NW WINDS AT 10 KTS DROP TO 5 TO 10 KTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...MVFR CIG AND PERHAPS LINGERING -SN EARLY ESPECIALLY NY
TERMINALS. CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING TO VFR.

FRI NGT THROUGH MON...MAINLY VFR.

MON NGT TO TUE...MVFR IN PRECIP.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC






National Weather Service
Disclaimer
Last Modified: August 31, 2005
Privacy Policy