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[Printable]
889
FXUS61 KCTP 270439
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1139 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY
THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE AWAY FROM CENTRAL PA.
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE KEYSTONE STATE
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOTHING AS COLD AS WHAT WE SAW LAST WEEK.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE
WEST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SNOW
WITH THE STORM OFF THE COAST HAS ENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THIS WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
SE COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MAIN CHANGE AT 10 PM WAS TO BRING MIN TEMPS UP SEVERAL
DEGREES...GIVEN CLD COVER.

BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW EAST AND NORTH OF THE CWA NOW.
LAST OF THE TWO AREAS OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS NOW OUT OF THE
AREA.

WHILE SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
THUS CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES.

WHILE THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE A LITTLE
BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...NO REAL COLD...WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MOST AREAS RECEIVED BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT
SOME LOCATIONS SAW AMTS UP TO 14 INCHES SO FAR.

UPPER STRASBURG IN FRANKLIN CO. HAD 14 INCHES.

KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS IN OUR PHLPNSCTP
PRODUCT...OR SUBMIT YOUR OWN ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TRANSITION TO COLD ADVECTION PATTERN WITH NW FLOW WILL BRING THE
USUAL GENERALLY LIGHT LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT...AND WILL
BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS AS A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH
THE FLOW. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS LIMITED.

THE AIR THAT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND OUR STORM WILL BE COLDER BUT NOT
ESPECIALLY SO...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. STILL A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WILL FLATTEN OUT INTO A BROAD ZONAL FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PROMPT A WARM-UP AS THE CYCLONE TRACK SHIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

THE SHOT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
OUR STORM WILL BEGIN MODERATING BY SATURDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE
MILD RANGE TAKING OVER BY SUNDAY.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD...AND EVENTUALLY COOL US OFF
A BIT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
27/03Z UPDATE...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM PREVIOUS FCST
THEREFORE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO 00Z SCHEDULED TAFS.
VLIFR CONDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT JST WITH VIS BLW AIRFIELD MINS AT
TIMES WITH SOME -FZDZ POSSIBLE.

27/00Z...MVFR-VFR CONDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PA ZNY
SECTOR. TROUBLE SPOT APPEARS TO BE OVER THE WRN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE
AIRSPACE IN ZOB SECTOR WHERE SHALLOW MSTR AND WEAK FLOW ARE
PRODUCING LOW CIGS IN THE IFR TO VLIFR RANGE. WEAK UPSLOPE NW
COMPONENT IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE LOW CIGS WITH JST AT 1/4SM
WITH FZFG. FEEL A PERSISTENCE FCST MAY WORK BEST HERE WITH
CONTINUED WEAK FLOW AND UPSTREAM OBS NOT FAVORING IMPROVEMENT.
SOME LAKE EFFECT -SHSN ARE FCST TO DEVELOP INTO THURSDAY NGT OVER
THE WRN 1/3 WHERE REDUCED CONDS ARE LKLY TO PERSIST.

OUTLOOK...

THU...IFR/MVFR WITH OCNL -SHSN WRN 1/3. VFR TO MVFR CIGS
CNTRL/EAST.

FRI...AM MVFR/-SHSN NW...OTHERWISE BCMG VFR.

SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. ISOLD -SHRA PSBL.

MON...COLD FROPA. MAINLY VFR. SCT -SHRA PSBL.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN/RXR
NEAR TERM...MARTIN/RXR
SHORT TERM...MARTIN/RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/GARTNER
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



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