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172
ACUS11 KWNS 242048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242047
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-242215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0396
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN MO...ERN OK...AR...WRN
TN...NWRN MS...NRN AR...NERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 89...90...

VALID 242047Z - 242215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
89...90...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH DMGG WINDS AND SVR
HAIL CONTINUES ACROSS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 89 AND 90.

DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 1002-MB SFC LOW
PRESSURE IN N-CNTRL MO INTO N-CNTRL TX...UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S SFC
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE SPREADING NEWD AS SWLY TRAJECTORIES ENCOURAGE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEHIND A RETREATING WARM FRONT. STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING AN EML PLUME CONTINUE TO FOSTER
500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE...GREATEST FROM THE ARKLATEX EWD TO THE
ARKLAMISS. STRONG DCVA/ASCENT PRECEDING A WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER PV
MAX APPROACHING ERN KS/OK...FRONTAL ASCENT...AND ASCENT WITHIN A
WARM ADVECTION ZONE LEADING THE STRONGER DCVA WILL ALL FOSTER THE
CONTINUATION OF FORWARD-PROPAGATING STORM CLUSTERS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY 50-60-KT MID-LEVEL WSWLYS PER VWP
DATA...WHICH WILL OFFER SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR STORM
SUSTENANCE/ORGANIZATION WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND MULTICELLS
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING DMGG WINDS AND SVR HAIL. UPDRAFTS MAY REMAIN
SOMEWHAT MORE DISCRETE OVER THE SRN FRINGES OF STRONGER ASCENT INTO
SRN AR AND NRN LA AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM ADVECTION PLUME
TOWARD THE MS RIVER WHERE ONE OR TWO TORNADOES COULD OCCUR.

..COHEN.. 04/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...
TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   32319259 32589421 34499572 36889468 38419349 39009217
            38899154 38239122 37309161 36589156 36399030 36358931
            35618934 32779074 32319259





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