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543
ACUS11 KWNS 210318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210318
OKZ000-TXZ000-210445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0375
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1018 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 210318Z - 210445Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH
DIMINISHING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AS THEY DEVELOP EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THROUGH 05-06Z.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF GENERALLY DISCRETE CONVECTIVE CELLS
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE CHILDRESS TX AREA.
 ALTHOUGH WDSS-II MESH DATA SUGGESTS STRONGER STORMS MAY STILL BE
PRODUCING AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
GENERALLY WEAKENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY ALONG AND JUST
EAST OF THE DIFFUSE DRYLINE DIMINISHES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

CONSOLIDATION OF STRONGER CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWED BY THE LACK OF
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM ADVECTION OR FOCUSED CONVERGENCE.  EVEN IF THIS DOES
SLOWLY CONTINUE TO OCCUR...AHEAD OF A LOBE OF VORTICITY DIGGING INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY /AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MIGRATING EAST OF THE PANHANDLE
REGION/...POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBSTANTIVE COLD POOL
APPEARS TO BE DECREASING.  THIS IN TURN APPEARS TO MINIMIZE THE
THREAT FOR AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX BETWEEN NOW AND 05-06Z.

..KERR/MEAD.. 04/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   33420047 34149958 34939933 34939825 34739750 33999735
            32859884 32910027 33420047





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