weather.gov     
National Weather Service

Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
NWS Homepage
This page is being discontinued on March 12, 2014.
The same data is available at this site. Please update your bookmarks.
Thank you, and we apologize for the inconvenience.
Please send an email to SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov with any concerns.


Current Version
Previous Version:    01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  
[Printable]
221
ACUS11 KWNS 012029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012028
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-012200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0051
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CST SUN FEB 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN TX...CNTRL/NRN LA...AND W-CNTRL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 012028Z - 012200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ACROSS ERN TX...CNTRL/NRN LA...AND W-CNTRL MS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUST WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED. THEREFORE...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL
MOVE EWD TO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. A SFC LOW ANALYZED ACROSS IL/ERN MO WILL CONTINUE
SHIFTING EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE
LOW THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY TO ERN TX. SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HAS BROUGHT GULF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
NWD INTO ERN TX...MUCH OF LA AND CNTRL/SRN MS.

AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH OCCASIONAL BOWING/WEAK
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT ENCOUNTERS A MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS BREAKS IN LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. 20Z MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS MLCAPE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR HAS INCREASED TO 250-500 J/KG...WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-45 KT. THIS COMBINATION OF WEAK
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW TO MIDLEVEL WIND SHEAR IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK
LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT A MORE ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 02/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   33079193 33219065 32368945 31289118 30609328 31269456
            31659395 32179337 32739253 33079193





U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE