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103
ACUS11 KWNS 200446
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200445
IAZ000-MNZ000-200645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1735
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND N-CNTRL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 200445Z - 200645Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT WILL PROBABLY
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AND SINGLE SITE 88D IMAGERY SHOW BOWING
STRUCTURES WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE THUNDERSTORM LINE FROM S-CNTRL MN
SWWD TO THE NEB/SD/IA BORDER.  KFSD IMAGERY HAS SHOWN SEVERAL
INTENSE REAR INFLOW JET SIGNATURES IN THE MID-LEVELS.  THE
CONVECTIVE LINE HAS AT TIMES BECOME MORE PERPENDICULAR WITH THE MEAN
FLOW AND THIS APPEARS TO HAVE AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE REAR
INFLOW JET/BOWING STRUCTURES WHERE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS IS MAXIMIZED.  WITH THOSE FACTORS IN MIND...SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS A FEW TIERS OF COUNTIES E OF I-35 HAVE INDICATED A
SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S COMPARED
TO MID-UPPER 60S WEST/.  THIS LIKELY RESULTS IN LARGER MLCINH WHICH
WOULD BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT.
NONETHELESS...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL PROBABLY
PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

..SMITH/GOSS.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   42519517 42899427 43499356 43509253 42949227 42379286
            42159410 42099505 42519517





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