505
ACUS11 KWNS 240416
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240416
TXZ000-NMZ000-240545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0790
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM...W CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 240416Z - 240545Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN
THE MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME WITH AT LEAST A MARGINAL HAIL RISK.
HOWEVER...THE MAGNITUDE AND LONGEVITY OF THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A WATCH.

DISCUSSION...OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION IN THE TX PANHANDLE HAS
SURGED WWD TO NEAR THE FRONT RANGE IN NM.  THOUGH THE OUTFLOW AIR
MASS IS COOL...THE INCREASED DEW POINTS WITHIN THE OUTFLOW AND HIGH
ELEVATION ARE SUPPORTING MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS
NE NM.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALSO WITHIN THE RANGE AT LEAST MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
ELY COMPONENT.  THE STRONGEST STORMS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD
PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  HOWEVER...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AFTER THE INITIAL SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL
GRADUALLY...AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES.  AT THIS TIME...THE
SEVERE STORM THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A WATCH.

..THOMPSON.. 05/24/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36030300 35300245 34840220 34380261 34260348 34600455
            35130527 35930530 36530474 36640397 36480343 36030300