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535
ACUS11 KWNS 200740
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200740
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-200945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1585
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST NEB/SOUTHEAST SD AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 200740Z - 200945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...PRIMARILY WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEB/SOUTHEAST SD INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN IA.

DISCUSSION...A WEAK MCV APPEARS TO BE SPREADING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NEB...AHEAD OF A BROADER ZONE OF WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF A SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWEST STATES UPPER TROUGH.
WITH REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA INDICATIVE OF A 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET...WARM ADVECTION-AIDED ISENTROPIC ASCENT FOCUSED TO THE NORTH OF
REGIONAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FURTHER AID SCATTERED ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEB/SOUTHEAST SD INTO WESTERN IA. WITHIN THE SOURCE REGION...STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MODERATE ELEVATED BUOYANCY EXISTS ATOP A
COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH 2000-3000+ J/KG MUCAPE LIKELY AS
PER EARLIER 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM NORTH PLATTE AND OMAHA. WHEN
CONSIDERING THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SUFFICIENT SHEAR THROUGH THE
CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SEEMINGLY EXISTS FOR SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION. AS
SUCH...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH AN EVENTUAL TREND FOR UPDRAFT
MERGERS/CLUSTERING WILL TEND TO MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGER
HAIL STONES OVER TIME.

..GUYER/CARBIN.. 08/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   43769874 43079646 42149439 40579353 41089601 41449815
            42519844 43769874





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