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217
ACUS02 KWNS 241710
SWODY2
SPC AC 241709

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE MID
TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OTHER MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS.

...SE MN/SW WI/ERN IA/NW IL/NE MO...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING. A WELL-DEVELOPED 40 TO
55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY WITH
THE NOSE OF THIS FEATURE LOCATED IN NRN IA AND SRN MN AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN ELEVATED CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER WILL BE ONGOING ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SEWD ACROSS ERN IA AND NWRN IL DURING THE
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT LACROSSE WI AT 15Z SHOW MUCAPE NEAR
1200 J/KG WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A HAIL THREAT WITH THE
STRONGER CORES. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IF
ANY OF THE CELLS CAN BECOME SFC-BASED AS SFC TEMPS WARM LATE FRIDAY
MORNING.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON FRIDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A
LOW WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES
EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S F. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF WRN AND CNTRL MN BY AFTERNOON. MODEL
FORECASTS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL INITIATE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BEING
PROBLEMATIC. IF THE NAM SCENARIO VERIFIES...THEN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BEMIDJI MN AT
00Z/SAT SHOW MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH 40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IF CELLS CAN
INITIATE AND DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY FRIDAY
AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE SRN
END OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE WY AND NE CO WITH
THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD INTO CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR NORTH PLATTE NEB AT 03Z/SAT SHOW MLCAPE
AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH 30 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE DUE TO THE WARM AIR ALOFT AND ANY
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.

..BROYLES.. 07/24/2014





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