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422
ACUS02 KWNS 010431
SWODY2
SPC AC 010430

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM
NEW YORK...SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU.
GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE EXPECTED.

...NY TO OZARK PLATEAU...

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS ONTARIO INTO
QUEBEC TUESDAY WITH ONLY WEAK FALLS EXPECTED TO TRAIL ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROUGH
WILL EJECT FROM THE MS VALLEY REGION TO A POSITION FROM THE U.P. OF
MI...SWD TO NEAR THE OH RIVER BY 18Z...THEN INTO UPSTATE NY BY
MIDNIGHT.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE AN ELONGATED CORRIDOR
OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF WEAK SFC FRONT...BOTH DURING THE DAY1 AND
DAY2 PERIODS.  SCT TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...LIKELY DISPLACED WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT
STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...SWWD INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU.
WHILE THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG...EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL LIMIT DIABATIC
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION OF CONCERN.  ALTHOUGH SFC
HEATING SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THIS PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION...BUOYANCY SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND
ROBUST TSTMS MAY EVOLVE ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES/CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WLY 30-40KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WHICH WOULD SEEM SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/LINE
SEGMENTS.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..DARROW.. 09/01/2014





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