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658
ACUS02 KWNS 301729
SWODY2
SPC AC 301727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR
CORNERS AND PACIFIC COAST STATES...ALONG WITH SOUTH
TEXAS...SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...THE CAROLINAS...AND GREAT LAKES.

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN
IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE A
DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES. A RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE GREAT PLAINS. A POTENT
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE REMAINS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN GA/SC AREA BY 12Z/SATURDAY. COLD MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM MAY SUPPORT SPORADIC LIGHTNING
STRIKES AMIDST MINIMAL BUOYANCY OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
THE CAROLINAS.  UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD INCREASE TOWARD 12Z
SATURDAY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NERN SC AND SRN NC...BUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDE THE INCLUSION
OF THESE PORTIONS OF SC/NC INTO THE GENERAL TSTM AREA AT THIS TIME.

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE POWERFUL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...WITH THE
ATTENDANT ANTICYCLONE/COLD CP AIR MASS EXPANDING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
TO THE GULF COAST STATES. DEEP SOUTH TX AND FAR SOUTHEAST FL WILL
HAVE EARLY-PERIOD TSTM POTENTIAL AHEAD OF THIS INTRUSION.

IN THE WEST...A PLUME OF RICHER 700-MB DEW POINTS WILL BE DRAWN
NORTH FROM CHIHUAHUA/SONORA DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ENTERING THE PACIFIC COAST STATES. MEAGER BUOYANCY WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH...WEAK BUOYANCY MIGHT RESULT IN SPORADIC
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN PREDOMINANT SHOWERY CONVECTION. FAST
MID-LEVEL FLOW AND COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COULD AID IN SMALL
HAIL WITHIN THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.

..PETERS.. 10/30/2014





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