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187
ACUS02 KWNS 161726
SWODY2
SPC AC 161724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.

...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...
RICH DEEP MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NWD WHILE MODEST LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION OCCURS WELL IN ADVANCE OF LOW-AMPLITUDE...MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING THAT WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE GULF. MINOR MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY...LIKELY SIGNALING WARMER
CONDITIONS ON D2/THU THAN D1/WED...AND SFC TEMPERATURES WILL
PROBABLY REACH THE LOWER-MIDDLE 80S. THIS...COMBINED WITH
INCREASINGLY MARITIME-INFLUENCED SFC TRAJECTORIES WITH ELYS
SUPPORTING MIDDLE/UPPER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG PROVIDED PARTIAL OR COMPLETE
INSOLATION. DESPITE MODEST MID/HIGH-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUCH
BUOYANCY WILL BE AIDED BY THE PERSISTENCE OF COOL H5 TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN -12C AND -10C SURMOUNTING HIGH THETA-E WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. OF NOTE...NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE LIKELY EXHIBITING A COOL
BIAS BASED ON SIMULATED SUPPRESSED PBL MIXING...AS AFFIRMED BY
COMPARISONS TO CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS.

GIVEN THE ELY FLOW IMPINGING ON DIURNALLY STRENGTHENING SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS...THE W-COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE FAVORED FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. PW VALUES AROUND 1.6-1.8 INCHES
SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR SCATTERED-NUMEROUS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...WHILE 45-60 KT OF HIGH LEVEL FLOW PROMOTE
EFFICIENT CONVECTIVE VENTILATION AND MODEST SHEAR THROUGH THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE CLOUD LAYER. AS SUCH...MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL BE THE
FAVORED CONVECTIVE MODE...WITH DMGG WINDS AND SVR HAIL POSSIBLE.
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER
THE INTERIOR WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO SUPPORT INLAND PROPAGATION OF
THIS ACTIVITY...THOUGH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE WEST-COAST METRO AREAS. FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE FROM TAMPA BAY AREA TO LAKELAND
FL...SOMEWHAT LOWER BOUNDARY-LAYER THETA-E WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LESS BUOYANCY AND A LOWER RISK FOR SVR STORMS.

...ELSEWHERE ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST...
INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO YIELD AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THU NIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

...SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS AND THE GREAT BASIN...
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT PRECEDING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING
THE NWRN UNITED STATES WILL OVERLIE DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC
CIRCULATIONS AMIDST MODEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
A NE/SW-ORIENTED SFC COLD FRONT OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL WEAKEN
WHILE ACCOMPANYING WEAKENING CONVERGENCE INTERCEPTS ONLY PARTIALLY
MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE. THE TRACK OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE FORECAST TO CROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF ANY OF THE RETURNING MOISTURE SUPPORTING
APPRECIABLE BUOYANCY. ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR
WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...AIDED BY
DIURNAL HEATING.

..COHEN.. 04/16/2014





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