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121
ACUS01 KWNS 170551
SWODY1
SPC AC 170549

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU TODAY AND TONIGHT.  A FEW STRONG
STORMS MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN...PARTS OF
THE MOJAVE DESERT...AND PERHAPS OVER FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA.

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN NWLY FLOW WILL MOVE SEWD
ACROSS LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY AND OZARKS AND WEAKEN DURING THE DAY.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE ERN STATES WHILE A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE IS LOCATED TO THE E OF A WEST COAST TROUGH.  ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM ODILE
WILL WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES ACROSS SONORA WITH THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION MOVING INTO SRN AZ BY THIS EVENING.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A FRONT WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH PARTS OF AL/GA
DURING THE DAY WHILE THE FRONT IS QUASISTATIONARY FROM THE OZARKS
NWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS STATES.

...CNTRL PLAINS SEWD INTO THE OZARKS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY BE
ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ERN KS/WRN MO VICINITY...SOME OF
WHICH MAY POSE AN ATTENDANT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL RISK WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH DECREASE IN THE LLJ ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE LATE
MORNING.  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY IS
POSSIBLE EITHER ON THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW OR PERHAPS SOME LINGERING
ACTIVITY TRANSITIONING TO BECOMING SURFACE-BASED AND INTENSIFYING AS
IT MOVES DOWN THE THETA-E AXIS.  ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE.  AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
ELEVATED ACTIVITY.

...MOJAVE DESERT AND SRN AZ...
STRONG HEATING ON THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF ODILE OVER INTERIOR SRN CA
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF AZ/NV WILL LIKELY FAVOR ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON.  STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES AND PW 1.25-1.75
INCHES MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONGER STORMS BUT WEAKER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES COMPARED TO PRIOR DAYS WILL LIKELY TEMPER STORM
INTENSITY.
MEANWHILE THE NERN QUADRANT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE WILL APPROACH
SERN AZ AND LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY AND CORRESPONDINGLY ENLARGE LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY MOIST PROFILE /PW
APPROACHING 2 INCHES/ WITH MARGINAL BUOYANCY /50-400 J PER KG
MUCAPE/.  WHILE A SHALLOW BRIEF STORM-SCALE CIRCULATION OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES DO NOT APPEAR
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

...CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITHIN A WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE/MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER REGIME.  A STRONGER STORM OR TWO MAY LEND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
A PRECIPITATION LOADING DOWNBURST...BUT MODEST LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
WINDS WILL SUPPORT DISORGANIZED STORMS AND LIMIT STORM INTENSITY.

..SMITH/COHEN.. 09/17/2014





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