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428
ACUS01 KWNS 241229
SWODY1
SPC AC 241228

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS.

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY
WELL-DEFINED/SYNOPTIC-SCALE RIDGE -- NOW LOCATED OVER ROCKY MOUNTAIN
STATES.  THIS RIDGE IS FCST TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE SLIGHTLY EWD TO HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH PERIOD...WITH BROADENING FLANKS OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.
SOME OF THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL BE RELATED TO DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW OVER SRN SK AND FCST TO STRENGTHEN GREATLY BY 12Z AS IT
REACHES NRN ONT AND LS.  FARTHER SE...NEARLY PHASED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PRESENTLY OVER INDIANA AND PORTIONS MS/AL WILL DIG SEWD AND
BECOME MORE CLOSELY CONNECTED.  BY END OF PERIOD...SUBSTANTIAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT FROM COASTAL CAROLINAS SSWWD ACROSS
CENTRAL FL TO EXTREME ERN GULF.

MEANWHILE...HIGH-AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NERN
PAC...WITH STRONG/BASAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED W OF CA BETWEEN
135W-140W.  LATTER PERTURBATION SHOULD PIVOT ENEWD TOWARD W COAST.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH PRECEDING RIBBON OF STG
MID-UPPER-LEVEL DCVA STILL SHOULD BE POSITIONED JUST OFFSHORE AROUND
12Z.  ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE AND ACCOMPANYING PRECIP BAND
MAY MOVE INLAND DURING LAST 4-6 HOURS OF PERIOD...BUT WITH LAPSE
RATES TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT AOA 10% GEN-TSTM RISK INLAND.

...S FL AND KEYS...
RESIDUAL/LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN OVER PORTIONS FL
STRAITS/KEYS THROUGH TODAY.  FRONTAL ZONE THEN SHOULD START MOVING
SWD AGAIN...AS SERN-CONUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APCHS WITH WEAK
FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLOGENESIS PASSING ENEWD OVER STRAITS AND BAHAMAS.
ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL WAA AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTIVE PLUME ACROSS THIS REGION...INCLUDING
ISOLATED/EMBEDDED THUNDER.  ALTHOUGH BULK OF CONVECTION DEEP ENOUGH
TO GENERATE LTG SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE...SOME TSTMS MAY BRUSH SERN
PENINSULA AND/OR KEYS.

..EDWARDS/JIRAK.. 10/24/2014





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