weather.gov     
National Weather Service

Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
NWS Homepage
This page is being discontinued on March 12, 2014.
The same data is available at this site. Please update your bookmarks.
Thank you, and we apologize for the inconvenience.
Please send an email to SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov with any concerns.


Current Version
Previous Version:    01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30  
   31  32  33  34  35  
[Printable]
467
ACUS01 KWNS 191244
SWODY1
SPC AC 191242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTHWEST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.

...FAR WEST TX/FAR SE NM...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD
TODAY AS AN ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO WRN MEXICO.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SOUTHWEST FLOW AT MID-LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS FAR WEST TX AS A COUPLE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE NEWD
ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWEST OF BIG BEND NP WITH SELY FLOW LOCATED ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND FAR WEST TX. AS SFC TEMPS WARM...CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WILL BECOME LIKELY IN THE DAVIS...GUADALUPE AND CHISOS
MTNS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
DESERTS AND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT FORT STOCKTON AND BIG BEND NP FOR 00Z/SUN
SHOW SBCAPE VALUES JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 50S F AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 50 TO 55 KT RANGE. THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. STEEP
LAPSE RATES BELOW 850 MB SHOULD AID THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS BUT THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND ISOLATED. HAIL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS ESPECIALLY WHERE
SFC TEMPS AND THE RESULTANT INSTABILITY MAX OUT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

...SRN AND ERN NEB/NRN KS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND OZARK
REGION TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE
OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEEPEN ACROSS WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BOUNDARY EXTENDING
NEWD FROM THE LOW INTO SERN NEB. THIS SHOULD BE THE FAVORED CORRIDOR
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE REGION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT HASTINGS NEB FOR EARLY THIS EVENING SHOW
SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
APPROACHING 8.0 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -15C
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING
THE EVENING AS CELLS BECOME ELEVATED.

...SE GA AND NE FL...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN FL TODAY AS A SFC LOW
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FL. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC LOW
CENTER IN FAR NE FL AND SE GA. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD TEMPS AT
MID-LEVELS IN THE CORE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
HAIL WITH CELLS THAT INITIATE NEAR THE COAST WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE
EARLY TO MID EVENING ENDING THE SEVERE THREAT.

..BROYLES/ROGERS.. 04/19/2014





U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE