weather.gov     
National Weather Service

Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
NWS Homepage
This page is being discontinued on March 12, 2014.
The same data is available at this site. Please update your bookmarks.
Thank you, and we apologize for the inconvenience.
Please send an email to SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov with any concerns.


Current Version
Previous Version:    01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30  
   31  32  33  34  35  
[Printable]
069
ACUS01 KWNS 021619
SWODY1
SPC AC 021617

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PARTS OF PA/NY...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF PENNSYLVANIA AND
NEW YORK...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHER ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN STATES AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...AND OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND
KANSAS OVERNIGHT.

...PA/NY INTO WV/KY...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT THIS MORNING OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES STATES...PROGRESSING EASTWARD.  THIS FEATURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY OVER PARTS OF PA/NY.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW RATHER STRONG DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW
AND HIGH PWAT VALUES...SUGGESTIVE OF A RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING LINE
OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT CAPABLE OF ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO CONFIRMS THIS REGION
WILL SEE SUBSTANTIAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY.  IT
APPEARS THE RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS DECREASES FARTHER SOUTH
INTO WV/KY WHERE THE UPPER SYSTEM HAS LESS AFFECT AND WIND FIELDS
ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER.  NEVERTHELESS...THE STRONGEST CORES IN THIS
REGION WILL ALSO POSE AN ISOLATED THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE.

...KY/TN/MS/AR...
THE REMNANTS OF A LARGE NOCTURNAL MCS CONTINUES TO AFFECT PARTS OF
OK/AR...WITH THE LEADING-EDGE GUST FRONT OF THE CONVECTION EXTENDING
FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO SOUTHEAST OK.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SAG SOUTHWARD TODAY INTO A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM HERE...AS WELL AS FARTHER
NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF KY/TN.  WIND FIELDS ARE WEAK AND CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED.  HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST STORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

...OK/KS TONIGHT...
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY
TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS WILL LEAD OF A
REGION OF ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT IN VICINITY OF REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OF ONGOING CONVECTION OVER OK.  PRESENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NEAR OR AFTER SUNSET IN
NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS AND DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.  A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  THIS
SCENARIO WILL BE MONITORED TODAY FOR SIGNS OF GREATER COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK.

..HART/ROGERS.. 09/02/2014





U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE