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137
ACUS01 KWNS 301958
SWODY1
SPC AC 301957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VALID 302000Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A COUPLE SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS MAINLY THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET.

...OK/TX...
MINOR CHANGES TO OVERALL OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES TO REFLECT POTENTIAL
GENESIS AREAS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY EVENING. ONE SHOULD BE
TIED TO SE-MOVING MCV /CURRENTLY OVER THE NE TX PANHANDLE/ AND THE
OTHER INVOF WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE AROUND 40 S CDS. MODEST MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR...BUT VEERING OF THE
LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE
TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A BRIEF
TORNADO.

...ERN NM...
LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PLUNGING S ACROSS
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL SUSTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS NEAR
THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET. AMIDST 20-30 KT MID-LEVEL
W/NWLYS SAMPLED IN AMDAR DATA NEAR ABQ...MARGINAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES MAY YIELD A COUPLE SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS.

..GRAMS.. 07/30/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

...OK/TX...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS HAS RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF KS/OK AND PARTS OF
NORTH TX.  AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY /EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT/ LIES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD OVER NORTH TX.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS.  MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT
STORMS FORM OVER THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND RIDE DOWN THE BOUNDARY
INTO WESTERN NORTH TX THIS EVENING.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
WEAK...AND OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC SETUP IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS.  HOWEVER...VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND 40-50
KNOTS OF NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CAPABLE OF HAIL OR GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.





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