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206
ACUS01 KWNS 230040
SWODY1
SPC AC 230039

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OTHER ISOLATED STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...NEW ENGLAND...

SCT CONVECTION PERSISTS WITHIN STRONG WARM ADVECTION ZONE JUST NW OF
SFC LOW.  LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WARM SECTOR
WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO LONG ISLAND.  00Z SOUNDING FROM OKX SUPPORTS
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STRONG NELY FLOW JUST OFF THE SFC.  WHILE
ELEVATED UPDRAFTS MAY EXHIBIT ORGANIZATION AT TIMES...THE PROSPECT
FOR 50KT+ CONVECTIVE WINDS REACHING THE SFC APPEARS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT SEVERE PROBS ATTM.

...ELSEWHERE...

WEAK BUOYANCY BUT MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE NOTED ACROSS THE
SRN/CNTRL PLAINS THIS EVENING.  A NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK CONVECTION
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGRESSING EWD AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK GIVEN THE
LIMITED BUOYANCY.

ISOLATED LIGHTNING MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED OFF THE SRN FL PENINSULA AND
PERHAPS OVER THE PACIFIC NW BUT WEAK FORCING/BUOYANCY SUGGESTS THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN VERY SPARSE.

..DARROW.. 10/23/2014





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