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031
FXUS64 KEWX 040153
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
753 PM CST SUN MAR 3 2013

.UPDATE...
EXPIRATION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING PROMPTED A MINOR UPDATE TO
REFRESH MAINY TEMPS AND DEW POINTS...WITH EVENING OBS AND SHORT
RANGE MODEL TRENDS FAVORING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM. THE NEXT RED FLAG EVENT IS
FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU FROM THE DRY-LINE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CST SUN MAR 3 2013/

UPDATE...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

AVIATION...
FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND REMAIN DRY
AS CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE
GULF MOISTURE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. I-35 CORRIDOR WINDS SOUTH 10 TO 15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUSTS TONIGHT. AFTER DAWN WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS KAUS BY LATE MORNING. KDRT WINDS SOUTHEAST
10 TO 15 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CST SUN MAR 3 2013/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON IS PUSHING GROUPS OF MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEST TEXAS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MID TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT A WARMER
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 40S.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING ACROSS THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES IS FORECASTED TO MOVE EAST AND ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A DRY LINE MOVING
FROM THE NORTHEAST PART OF MEXICO EASTWARD TO ABOUT HIGHWAY 71
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TRANSLATE TO A HOT MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
TO MID 80S ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CHANGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A DRY FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY AND A WIND ADVISORY IS
LIKELY TO BE ISSUED FOR THAT PERIOD IN THE FUTURE. EXPECT
SEASONAL NORMALS HIGHS TUESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN 30S WITH A
LIGHT FREEZE OVER PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY IN THE WAKE OF THE DRY
FROPA.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A WET PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS A
NORTHWEST PACIFIC STORM MOVES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. SHOWED A MODEL BLEND SOLUTION WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE
WITH POPS ENDING LATE NEXT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STORM RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH FOR AREAS
WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 AND UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH EAST. HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
HILL COUNTRY.

FIRE WEATHER...
A REG FLAG WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 8 PM CST THIS EVENING. A NEW RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
EDWARDS...KINNEY...REAL...AND VAL VERDE COUNTIES DUE TO BREEZY AND
LOW HUMIDITIES CONDITIONS. THE FIRE WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TUESDAY...HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. THE RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM TUESDAY DUE TO A DRY
PACIFIC FRONT AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              50  86  50  69  38 /   0   0  -    0   0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  47  85  46  68  31 /   0   0  -    0   0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     46  85  47  70  34 /   0   0  -    0   0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            49  85  45  65  34 /   0   0  -    0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           49  91  53  73  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        49  84  46  66  32 /   0   0  -    0   0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             42  88  46  72  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        48  84  47  69  34 /   0   0  -    0   0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   53  82  52  69  37 /   0  -   10  -    0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       49  85  48  70  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           47  86  50  70  36 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: EDWARDS...KINNEY...REAL...VAL VERDE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...02
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...31







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