439
FXUS64 KEWX 182002
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
302 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
NEW 12Z GFS RUN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE
STILL OVER THE HILL COUNTRY EARLY THIS EVENING...THE SAME AREA WHERE
THE DYING MCS LAID OUT A BOUNDARY EARLIER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE
GFS AND EUROPEAN BOTH SHOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING EAST
DURING THE EVENING...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF ISOLATED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE MIDNIGHT OVER THIS
AREA. GFS GRIDDED POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE LOW POPS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE I-35 CORRIDOR EAST AS WEAK DISTURBANCES EXIT TO THE
EAST UNDER LEFT OVER CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
WILL BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS EAST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER TEXAS INTO THIS WEEKEND AND THEN
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE
SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE ENTRENCHED RIDGING ALOFT...WILL NOT FORECAST
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE
WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE THAT WILL IN TURN PRODUCE
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE ACROSS
AREAS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. ANY
TROPICAL ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION GIVEN
THE PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  96  75  96  75 /  20  10  -    0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  95  74  96  74 /  20  10  -    0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  93  73  94  73 /  20  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  92  73  93  72 /  20  -   -    0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  96  75  96  75 /  10  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  94  73  95  73 /  20  10  -    0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  94  73  94  73 /  10  -    0   0  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  93  74  93  73 /  20  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  95  76  96  76 /  30  10  -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  93  75  93  74 /  10  -   -    0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  92  73  92  73 /  10  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...02
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...31