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031 FXUS64 KEWX 040153 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 753 PM CST SUN MAR 3 2013 .UPDATE... EXPIRATION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING PROMPTED A MINOR UPDATE TO REFRESH MAINY TEMPS AND DEW POINTS...WITH EVENING OBS AND SHORT RANGE MODEL TRENDS FAVORING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR MONDAY MORNING. && .FIRE WEATHER... RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM. THE NEXT RED FLAG EVENT IS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU FROM THE DRY-LINE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CST SUN MAR 3 2013/ UPDATE... SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW... AVIATION... FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND REMAIN DRY AS CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE GULF MOISTURE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. I-35 CORRIDOR WINDS SOUTH 10 TO 15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS TONIGHT. AFTER DAWN WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS KAUS BY LATE MORNING. KDRT WINDS SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KTS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CST SUN MAR 3 2013/ DISCUSSION... NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON IS PUSHING GROUPS OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEST TEXAS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT A WARMER OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING ACROSS THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES IS FORECASTED TO MOVE EAST AND ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A DRY LINE MOVING FROM THE NORTHEAST PART OF MEXICO EASTWARD TO ABOUT HIGHWAY 71 MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TRANSLATE TO A HOT MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO MID 80S ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A DRY FRONT PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY AND A WIND ADVISORY IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED FOR THAT PERIOD IN THE FUTURE. EXPECT SEASONAL NORMALS HIGHS TUESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN 30S WITH A LIGHT FREEZE OVER PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY IN THE WAKE OF THE DRY FROPA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH MOISTURE INCREASING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A WET PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS A NORTHWEST PACIFIC STORM MOVES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SHOWED A MODEL BLEND SOLUTION WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WITH POPS ENDING LATE NEXT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STORM RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD GENERALLY BE AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 AND UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH EAST. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE HILL COUNTRY. FIRE WEATHER... A REG FLAG WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH 8 PM CST THIS EVENING. A NEW RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR EDWARDS...KINNEY...REAL...AND VAL VERDE COUNTIES DUE TO BREEZY AND LOW HUMIDITIES CONDITIONS. THE FIRE WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY...HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. THE RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM TUESDAY DUE TO A DRY PACIFIC FRONT AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 50 86 50 69 38 / 0 0 - 0 0 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 47 85 46 68 31 / 0 0 - 0 0 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 46 85 47 70 34 / 0 0 - 0 0 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 49 85 45 65 34 / 0 0 - 0 0 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 49 91 53 73 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 49 84 46 66 32 / 0 0 - 0 0 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 42 88 46 72 32 / 0 0 0 0 0 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 48 84 47 69 34 / 0 0 - 0 0 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 53 82 52 69 37 / 0 - 10 - 0 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 49 85 48 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 47 86 50 70 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET... CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO... GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR... KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS... UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA. RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: EDWARDS...KINNEY...REAL...VAL VERDE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...02 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...31