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032 FXUS64 KEWX 031142 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 642 AM CDT THU OCT 3 2013 .AVIATION... LOW CIGS ARE A LITTLE MORE SCATTERED THIS MORNING. CIGS HAVE BEEN IN AND OUT AT TERMINALS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL LATE MORNING. BY THEN CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AND SCT. WINDS WILL GUST INTO 20S AT DRT THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO FORM AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT THU OCT 3 2013/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... EARLY MORNING RADAR DATA SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST SLOWLY MOVING INLAND. LIGHT ECHOES ALSO NOTED ON GRK RADAR AND SUSPECT WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH 10 AM. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT...WE/LL KEEP PRECIPITATION ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED... BUT WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE... VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 3 MILES. OTHERWISE... SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS INTACT TODAY AND MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY... WITH UPPER 80S HILL COUNTRY TO MID 90S SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED. LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED ON A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SET TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. TIMING REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE COLD FRONT SET TO ENTER THE HILL COUNTRY BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MAKE STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS BY MID-EVENING. WE WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY... WITH THE LATEST MODEL DATA FAVORING THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LAG WELL INTO SUNDAY AND WE/LL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE COME DOWN WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S 00Z GUIDANCE. WE HAVE TRIMMED QPF AMOUNTS AND FOR NOW EXPECT AVERAGE AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 1/4"... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3/4". DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY EXPANDS OVER THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION. CLIMATE... A RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 77 DEGREES WAS TIED YESTERDAY AT THE SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 93 73 93 70 86 / 10 - - 10 20 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 91 69 90 67 86 / 10 - - 10 20 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 92 69 91 68 87 / 10 - - 10 20 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 89 71 88 68 78 / 10 - - 10 30 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 93 72 92 71 83 / - - - 20 30 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 90 71 89 70 82 / 10 - - 10 20 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 95 71 94 71 88 / - - - 10 30 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 90 70 89 68 86 / 10 - - 10 20 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 93 74 93 74 89 / 10 10 10 10 20 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 93 75 93 72 88 / 10 - - 10 20 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 95 75 95 73 91 / 10 - - 10 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24