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564
FXUS64 KEWX 260428
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1128 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR SOUTH WINDS AROUND 07-10KT AFTER 17Z.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A BIT MORE RETURN GULF FLOW SUNDAY
NIGHT...SO INCLUDED MVFR CIGS AT KAUS AND KSAT FOR THE 30 HOUR
TAFS...BEGINNING AT 10Z MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 800 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR SOUTH WINDS AROUND 07-10KT AFTER 17Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY AS A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES EAST
INTO THE ROCKIES. HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER COOLER
SUNDAY...BUT STILL WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL...UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ESCARPMENT LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SENDING
A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO TEXAS. THE WEAK FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY ENTER
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND STALL OVER CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE DEPTH AND FORCING IS
LACKING...AND THEREFORE WILL ONLY KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE.
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE EAST...SENDING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF AND CMC
CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY SHARPER WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
RIDGE INTO CENTRAL CANADA...RESULTING IN A DEEPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND GREAT LAKES...AND A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS WEAKER AND SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST WITH THE TROUGH. HAVE
FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR NOW...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND COOLER CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  63  88  63  87 /   0   0   0  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  87  57  87  57  87 /   0   0   0  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     88  60  88  60  88 /   0   0   0  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  61  87  61  84 /   0   0   0  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           87  61  87  61  86 /   0   0   0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        86  61  87  61  86 /   0   0   0  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             84  54  87  56  86 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  59  89  59  87 /   0   0   0  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   87  60  86  63  86 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       88  62  86  63  86 /   0   0   0  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  60  87  62  87 /   0   0   0  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05






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