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465
FXUS64 KEWX 202333
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
633 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING. WE
SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS AT KDRT AROUND SUNRISE AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE RIO-GRANDE PLAINS. THERE
IS A SMALL PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS OR VISIBILITIES AT THE SAN
ANTONIO SITES. CHANCES OF THIS ARE LOW AND WILL JUST MENTION 6SM
BR WITH SCT015 FOR NOW. ANY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT
BACK INTO VFR BY MID-DAY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS TODAY WHERE AN AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
RESIDES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. HAVE
MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
AREA IN THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS INTO
A TROUGH AND MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LOWER TO MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH NO POPS.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
MODELS CONTINUE TO GET IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM WITH
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE WEAKENING PLAINS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS NOW SHOWN BY ALL MODELS TO REMAIN AN
OPEN TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MID INTO LATE WEEK. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS BACK EAST A
LITTLE AND HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AS THIS FORMER PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST IT WILL
ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR LEFT OVER FROM THE SHORT TERM AND NO POPS
ARE MENTIONED FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS ANY
RAINS WILL EVAPORATE PRIOR TO REACHING THE GROUND. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS THIS WEEKEND AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
COULD GET QUITE WARM FOR LATE OCTOBER. THE RIDGE THEN FLATTENS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES INTO
THE PLAINS NEXT MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT MONDAY NIGHT. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE...NO
POPS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              62  84  62  84  62 /  -   -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  57  83  57  83  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     60  86  58  85  58 /  -   -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            59  82  58  82  59 /  -   -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  83  65  84  65 /  20  30  10  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        59  83  60  83  59 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             62  85  59  85  60 /  -   -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        60  84  58  84  57 /  -   -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   60  85  58  84  58 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       64  86  61  85  62 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           63  86  59  85  60 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32








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