weather.gov     
National Weather Service

Area Forecast Discussion
NWS Homepage
This page is being discontinued on March 12, 2014.
The same data is available at this site. Please update your bookmarks.
Thank you, and we apologize for the inconvenience.
Please send an email to SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov with any concerns.


Current Version
Previous Version:    01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30  
   31  32  33  34  35  36  37  38  39  40  41  42  43  44  45  46  47  48  49  50  51  52  53  54  
[Printable]
959
FXUS64 KEWX 270315
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
915 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE... /RAISED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT/
A RE-TREND OF OBSERVATIONS WITH MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT SUGGEST MINS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST MAINLY
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. DECOUPLING OF WINDS AND DRY DEW
POINT ADVECTION HAS ACCELERATED MID-EVENING COOLING TO CATCH UP
SOME WITH EARLIER PROJECTIONS...BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER DEW POINTS
SHOULD HOLD OVER AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90. REST OF THE FORCAST
WAS UNCHANGED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

AVIATION...
VERY DRY AIR AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY THING OF
NOTE WILL BE A SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS EVENING TO NORTHERLY
AS A WEAK FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CWA...WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND RE-ENFORCE THE DRY REGIME
WE HAVE BEEN IN OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. SHOULD MAINTAIN CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE HILL COUNTRY.

THANKSGIVING DAY SHOULD BE A NICE ONE...OTHER THAN THE CHILLY
START. CLEAR SKIES WILL WARM THE DAY NICELY INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S. THE EASTERN COMPONENT OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN BUT
NOT UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING SO MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS IN THE SKY BY
THAT POINT...BUT THAT WILL BE EAST OF THE I35 CORRIDOR.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WITH THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE FEATURE OVER THE NORTHERN MS RIVER
VALLEY EXITING EAST AND HIGH H5 PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WEAKENING...A QUASI ZONAL H5 PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC
NW WILL ATTEMPT TO EJECT A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BY MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE COLD AIR MASS SPREADING
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST. STRONG
ENOUGH THAT THE FRONT PUSHES AS FAR SOUTH AS CORPUS CHRISTI.
MODELS DO DEVELOP SOME QPF WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT
SO SLIGHT POPS SHOULD DO FOR NOW. THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT WILL BE
BRIEF AS RETURN REDEVELOPS QUICKLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A H5 SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES. THAT SHOULD PUSH
ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY BUT SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DISCREPANCIES EXIST BETWEEN LONG RANGE MODEL DEPICTIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              42  64  42  71  54 /   0   0   0  -    0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  39  63  40  71  54 /   0   0   0  -    0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     42  65  42  72  52 /   0   0   0  -    0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            38  61  40  69  50 /   0   0   0  -    0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           41  66  43  69  45 /   0   0   0  -    0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        38  61  40  70  52 /   0   0   0  -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             39  65  41  69  47 /   0   0   0  -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        40  64  41  72  53 /   0   0   0  -    0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   42  64  43  71  57 /   0   0   0  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       43  65  44  70  53 /   0   0   0  -    0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           43  66  44  71  52 /   0   0   0  -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12







U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE