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FXXX02 KWNP 150726

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Sep 15 0717 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#               27-day Space Weather Forecast
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
15 September - 11 October 2014

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class
flares through 27 September due to returning Regions 2149 (N09,
L=284) and 2151 (S08, L=253). Activity is then likely to be moderate
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) with a chance for X-class flaring (R3-Strong
or greater) through the remainder of the period due to Regions 2157
and 2158 returning to the visible disk.

There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event from 29
September through the end of the period due to potential significant
flare activity from Regions 2157 and 2158.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels from 15 to 18 September,
before returning to normal levels through 25 September. Conditions
should increase to normal to moderate with a chance for high levels
from 26 September through 1 October in response to the recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Conditions should fall back
to normal to moderate levels from 2 - 11 October, with a chance for
high levels from 7 to 9 October due to another CH HSS.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels
from 15 to 24 September, with isolated unsettled levels on 16 and 17
September, due to a recurrent CH HSS combined with CME activity from
12 September. Another recurrent CH HSS is expected to return on 25
September, making unsettled to active conditions likely through 30
September. Mostly quiet conditions are expected from 1 October to 5
October. A weak positive polarity coronal hole feature is likely to
bring conditions up slightly, to the quiet to unsettled levels on 6
- 7 October, before returning to mostly quiet conditions for the
remainder of the period.

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