weather.gov     
National Weather Service

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS Homepage
This page is being discontinued on March 12, 2014.
The same data is available at this site. Please update your bookmarks.
Thank you, and we apologize for the inconvenience.
Please send an email to SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov with any concerns.


Current Version
Previous Version:    01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  
[Printable]
949
AXPZ20 KNHC 280917
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU AUG 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS NEAR 24.4N 127.8W 995 MB AT 0900 UTC
AUG 28 MOVING NW OR 305 DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45
KT GUSTS 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM
ACROSS THE SE SEMICIRCLE. SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AS HIGH AS 27
FT WITHIN 75 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT OF MARIE. MARIE IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND OVER COOLER
WATERS AND INTO MUCH MORE STABLE AIR. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
CURRENT WEAKENING TREND...AND MARIE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST
TROPICAL STORM BY LATER TODAY. LARGE AND POWERFUL SWELL
GENERATED DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WATERS...AND IMPACT PORTIONS OF SW
MEXICO W OF 100W SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THE STRONG SWELL FROM MARIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
SURF...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...AND BEACH EROSION THROUGH THU.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON MARIE...AND THE LOCAL
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE ON IMPACTS FROM
SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 14N85W TO 10N105W TO
12N109W. RESUMES 13N131W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 94W-98W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW OF LOWELL HAS MOVED NW OF THE ARE. HOWEVER 8-10
FT SWELL IS N OF 16N W OF 135W ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
LOWELL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL MERGE WITH MARIE TONIGHT.

THE SMALL REMNANT LOW OF KARINA CAN STILL BE SEEN IN SATELLITE
NEAR 16N123W. THERE IS A LIMITED AMOUNT OF CONVECTION NEAR
KARINA THIS EVENING BUT SMALL ISOLATED CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO
PULSE NEAR THE CENTER. WINDS ASSOCIATED THE REMNANT LOW HAVE
DECREASED TO LESS THAN 20 KT. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE TODAY.

MIXED SWELLS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
MAJORITY OF THE WATERS W OF 110W THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A
RESULT OF SWELL PROPAGATING AWAY FROM MARIE INTERACTING WITH
FADING SWELL THAT HAD BEEN GENERATED BY LOWELL AND KARINA.
MEANWHILE...THE WATERS E OF 110W WILL BE COMPARATIVELY MORE
TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS
EXPECTED.

$$
DGS




U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE