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093
AXPZ20 KNHC 020938
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU OCT 2 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
RECENTLY NAMED TROPICAL STORM SIMON NEAR 18.1N 106.1W 1002 MB AT
0900 UTC OCT 02 MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. SIMON IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY THROUGH LATE FRI AS IT MOVES W-NW OVER WARMER WATER IN
A MOIST LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N91W TO 11N99W THEN
RESUMES FROM 13N110W TO 11N123W TO 12N131W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS
E OF 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N
TO 13N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 108W AND 127W.

...DISCUSSION...
WIND WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH A SUSTAINED FRESH S TO SW MONSOONAL
FLOW S OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON ARE COMBINING WITH RESIDUAL LONG
PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL ACROSS THE REGION TO PRODUCE A
LARGE AREA OF 8-9 FT SEAS ROUGHLY FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 101W
AND 119W. AS SIMON TRACKS W-NW...THE AREA OF MONSOONAL FLOW WILL
SHIFT N-NE AND DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE U.S. INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EXTENDING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA TO SONORA STATE IN MEXICO. RESIDUAL N-NW SWELL
FROM STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS W OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS
SUPPORTING 8-9 FT SEAS N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 132W. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE TONIGHT.

NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT N OF 25N THURSDAY IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS E ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.

$$
MUNDELL




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