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[Printable]
963
AXPZ20 KNHC 222159
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED OCT 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM PANAMA NEAR 08N78W THEN MOSTLY
OVERLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO GUATEMALA NEAR 14N90W THEN TO
10N100W TO 10N110W TO 10N120W TO 09N130W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN
85W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM N OF TROUGH AND 120 NM BETWEEN 120W AND
135W.

...DISCUSSION...

RICH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENT SW FLOW INTO
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC N OF 06N
AND EAST OF 100W.

FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TONIGHT AND
THU OVER NE MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION CURRENTLY IN THE SW GULF HEADING TOWARD
THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND LEAD
TO STRONG GAP WINDS PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THU
NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. A SECOND REINFORCING GAP WIND EVENT WILL
OCCUR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. THE PERSIST GAP FLOW WILL
ALLOW SHORT PERIOD N AND NE SEAS WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FT TO
REACH AS FAR TO THE S AND SW AS 500 NM SSW OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC BY SAT MORNING...MIXING WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL.
THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW GALE
FORCE...IT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SUN.

FARTHER WEST...1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 30N135W IS
MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW W OF 110W. THE
MAIN MARINE ISSUE IS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL REACHING 8 TO 10 FT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 08N W OF 120W. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...EVENTUALLY MIXING WITH
SW SWELL MOVING ACROSS THE EQUATOR IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS
IT GRADUALLY DECAYS BELOW 8 FT. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SET OF NW
SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC
ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONT REACHING AS FAR AS 30N130W TO 27N140W
BY LATE FRI. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER 20N145W IS SUPPORTING
PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 120W.

$$
CHRISTENSEN




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