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519
AXNT20 KNHC 200605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS
LISTED UNDER GRAND LARGE METAREA II...AT 19/2215 UTC...FOR THE
SECTIONS THAT ARE TITLED...IRVING...AND MADEIRA. GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N42W 12N43W
7N44W...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 39W AND 47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 15N BETWEEN 38W
AND 52W. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS RELATED ONLY TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE...AND SOME IS IN THE ITCZ.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS
OF SENEGAL NEAR 16N16W TO 13N20W AND 11N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 11N23W TO 8N30W 10N38W...TOWARD THE TROPICAL WAVE...TO
9N46W AND 5N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 9W AND
40W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W WESTWARD. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE WEST CENTRAL
GULF...BEYOND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA INTO TEXAS.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO FROM 25N NORTHWARD FROM 90W EASTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM
25N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W EASTWARD. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA RIDGE. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO FROM 87W EASTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...CLOSE TO THE COAST.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 19N TO 21N
BETWEEN 93W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 24N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 92W AND THE COAST.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KOPM...
KBBF...KVAF...KVQT...KSPR...KGRY...KIPN...KVOA...AND KDLP.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

EDINBURG TEXAS IN THE LOWER VALLEY AND ALICE TEXAS ARE REPORTING
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG ARE
BEING REPORTED AT PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI. LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA
DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N70W TO 25N73W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 20N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 20N66W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 23N
BETWEEN 60W AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...IN SURFACE-
TO-LOW LEVEL EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
20/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.22 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N74W IN COLOMBIA...AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD TO PANAMA...WESTWARD ACROSS PANAMA...AND BEYOND
THE SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N
TO 12N BETWEEN 73W AND 74W...FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 76W AND
77W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 12N81W...AND FROM 7N TO 9N
BETWEEN 72W AND 74W IN COLOMBIA AND NEARBY VENEZUELA.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 20N66W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 23N
BETWEEN 60W AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER WERE BEING REPORTED AT SANTO
DOMINGO AND PUNTA CANA AND SANTIAGO. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER
WERE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA DURING THE LAST FEW
OBSERVATIONS. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT
OTHER OBSERVING SITES ACROSS THE ISLAND.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OR SO. THE TROUGH THAT WILL COVER HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE EASTWARD.
A RIDGE WILL END UP ACROSS THE AREA BY 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT WEAK CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 30 TO
36 HOURS. AN EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE
REST OF THE TIME PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN EAST-TO-WEST
ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO
25N73W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 29N74W TO THE EASTERN
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N80W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES...THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND PARTS OF CUBA...TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W 27N65W
23N70W 22N76W...ACROSS CUBA TO 23N85W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 29N89W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N66W 23N68W TO
20N75W IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT ARE WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA...TO 29N70W AND
28N80W ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 20N66W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 23N
BETWEEN 60W AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 27N54W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N TO 32N BETWEEN 42W AND 60W. SOME OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT IS EVIDENT FROM 10N TO 20N IS THE RESULT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW THAT IS CROSSING 60W FROM THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...CONTINUING INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND BEING
CAUGHT UP IN THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE 27N54W CYCLONIC CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
30N52W...TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N54W...
TO 23N56W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 49W AND 56W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N21W TO
24N23W AND 9N29W. THE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N13W...ACROSS THE
CANARY ISLANDS...TO 25N20W AND 23N24W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N24W TO 20N31W 23N40W AND 31N48W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 30N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 19W AND 25W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 39W AND 45W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST...NORTH...AND NORTHEAST OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N11W 24N16W 19N28W 20N40W 32N49W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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