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490
AXNT20 KNHC 301154
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDS ALONG 19W/20W
FROM 4N-13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
NARROW SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS
SUPPRESSING THE WAVE TO THE SOUTH AND LIMITING CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 19N42W TO
7N46W MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE N OF 12N AND FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 45W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N88W OVER THE
YUCATAN ALONG 16N88W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W 15-20 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT MOISTURE
THAT COVERS THE YUCATAN AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 17N W OF 86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 15N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 14N20W 7N28W TO 5N40W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N49W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
4N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOTS THE AREA FROM 4N-8N
BETWEEN 24W-34W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N50W TO 16N52W
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 18N-20N
BETWEEN 49W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 25N94W COVERING
THE AREA N OF 21N W OF 87W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM THE MID-ATLC STATES TO OVER NE
FLORIDA. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER
FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE INTO THE GULF NEAR 29N83W TO A 1009 MB
LOW NEAR 29N85W WHERE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES ALONG 27N87W TO
27N89W WHERE IT AGAIN BECOMES STATIONARY TO 27N95W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N E OF
86W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N E OF 94W AND S OF 22N W
OF 94W. THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-28N. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE S GULF
EXITING WED. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT E EXTENDING ALONG
27N E OF 87W BY WED BEFORE MOVING E OF THE AREA THU. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF WED AND THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO THEN
SW ALONG 15N72W THEN W TO NICARAGUA/HONDURAS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 79W-83W.
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA
RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND
AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COSTA RICA AND S NICARAGUA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN THU.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO THEN
INTO THE CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FURTHER E GIVING THE
ISLAND MORE NE FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT HEAVY
RAIN...BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA
AND THE W ATLC W OF 70W. BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE IS A REMNANT
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N79W THROUGH A WEAK NEWLY
DEVELOPED 1009 MB LOW NEAR 31N80W CONTINUING OVER FLORIDA NEAR
JACKSONVILLE AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN THIS UPPER RIDGE AND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE E IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-30N
BETWEEN 73W-78W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC WITH A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW JUST NW OF BERMUDA. SCATTERED TO
HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM 25N72W TO 24N62W TO 27N54W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 28N58W TO BEYOND
32N61W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF
20N E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 28N37W. THE 1009 MB
LOW NEAR 31N80W WILL MOVE E OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH
LATE TUE BEFORE MOVING N OF THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW NEAR 31N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT
THEN FROM 31N69W TO 27N77W TO HOBE SOUND FLORIDA WED NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING FROM 30N65W TO THE N BAHAMAS THU NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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