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078
AXNT20 KNHC 212316
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 9N13W
TO 8N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 6N33W TO 4N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N E OF 24W AND FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 47W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E U.S.
SUPPORTING A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SW OHIO NEAR
39N84W. THIS HIGH EXTENDS S INTO THE GULF PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER
AND 10-15 KT EASTERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND W CUBA FROM 22N84W
TO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N70W. ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE SE
GULF FROM 24N-25N BETWEEN 74W-82W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE S GULF MAINLY S OF
27N AS MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN MOVES NW.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-20 KT TRADEWINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC TO W CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE END OF THIS FRONT NEAR 22N85W TO 18N88W. AN UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 14N80W
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 14N64W SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND E CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 67W. THE
PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AFFECTING THEIR ADJACENT WATERS S
OF 10N. LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO MOVE W ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO
APPROACH THE ISLAND FROM THE E ENHANCING CONVECTION.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER THE W ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 34N56W TO 26N70W AND A STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM
THAT POINT TO W CUBA NEAR 22N85W. ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE SE
GULF FROM 24N-25N BETWEEN 74W-82W. TO THE E...A 1026 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N46W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN FROM 16W-58W. A PAIR OF
SURFACE LOWS ARE INTERACTING NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE 1004
MB ONE IS CENTERED NEAR 28N13N WHILE THE 1006 MB ONE IS NEAR
31N14W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS
NW AFRICA AND AFFECTING THE ADJACENT WATERS FROM 29N-33N...E OF
13W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION WHILE THE STATIONARY
FRONT DISSIPATES. THE LOWS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS WILL MERGE
AND MOVE E ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS NW AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA




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