[Printable]
Links in the discussion text will open a (small) new browser window with more information inside.
A more complete Weather Glossary is Available Here
000 FXUS64 KTSA 232332 AFDTSA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 532 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009 .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM. COLD FRONT MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST AND PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS FORECAST. MVFR CIGS ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL IMPACT ARKANSAS TAF SITES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWER CEILINGS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY...WITH NW ARKANSAS SITES POSSIBLY HOLDING CEILINGS TILL SUNSET TOMORROW. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/ DISCUSSION... COMPACT UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING A SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT OVER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME DEGREE OF MOISTURE INCREASE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HWY 75 AROUND 03Z AND APPROACHING OK/AR BORDER BEFORE 09Z. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AFTER 00Z TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT... MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND WESTERN AR AFTER 06Z. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT BUT A STRONG SYSTEM LIKE THIS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. SHIFT TO GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH ANY PRECIP QUICKLY EXITING THE AREA MID MORNING TUESDAY. SOME WRAP AROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD KEEP SKIES CLOUDY FOR PART OF THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH GUSTY WINDS AND TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. A SECOND UPPER WAVE STILL EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY WITH A SECOND SURGE OF COOLER AIR MOVING SOUTH. THIS WILL DROP TEMPS CLOSE TO FREEZING IN SOME AREAS BY THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL AREAS FRIDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTH A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...WHICH COULD KEEP SOME AREAS JUST ABOVE THE MARK FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE BY SUNDAY. 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH ADVERTISING A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND AT LEAST HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTER WEATHER OVER PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TOO HIGH TO INCLUDE ANY WINTER WEATHER IN THE FORECAST...BUT THE SITUATION WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 43 56 36 59 / 20 10 0 0 FSM 48 55 37 62 / 50 10 0 0 MLC 45 59 35 63 / 40 0 0 0 BVO 41 53 31 58 / 20 10 0 0 FYV 46 50 31 57 / 50 20 0 0 BYV 48 50 35 56 / 50 30 0 0 MKO 43 55 35 60 / 30 0 0 0 MIO 43 52 34 58 / 20 10 0 0 F10 42 57 35 61 / 20 0 0 0 HHW 49 62 38 64 / 30 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...07