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000
FXUS64 KTSA 101129
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
529 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN TODAY WITH MID
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.  VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...WHICH COULD INHIBIT
HIGH TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT.

AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN TEXAS ON THURSDAY THE PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AT
OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE PRECIP AREAS...SO DO NOT EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL
REMAIN THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD. COULD STILL SOME SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED BRIEFLY WITH SNOW BEHIND FRONT.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED...STAYING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH UPPER SPEED MAX ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO THE
GFS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   38  29  41  29 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   38  26  38  31 /   0  10  30  40
MLC   40  30  38  31 /   0  20  50  30
BVO   36  24  40  27 /   0  10  10  10
FYV   34  22  38  27 /   0  10  10  20
BYV   32  20  38  28 /   0  10  10  20
MKO   37  28  39  30 /   0  10  20  20
MIO   34  23  41  28 /   0  10  10  10
F10   37  29  39  30 /   0  20  20  10
HHW   42  31  37  31 /   0  30  60  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...17






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