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000
FXUS64 KTSA 232332
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
532 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
COLD FRONT MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST AND PREVIOUS FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS FORECAST. MVFR CIGS ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE WILL IMPACT ARKANSAS TAF SITES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. LOWER CEILINGS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
TUESDAY...WITH NW ARKANSAS SITES POSSIBLY HOLDING CEILINGS TILL
SUNSET TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009/

DISCUSSION...
COMPACT UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWING A SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT OVER FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME DEGREE OF MOISTURE INCREASE IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WITH FRONT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HWY 75 AROUND
03Z AND APPROACHING OK/AR BORDER BEFORE 09Z. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AFTER 00Z TONIGHT AND
THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT...
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND WESTERN AR AFTER 06Z. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT BUT A STRONG SYSTEM LIKE THIS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. SHIFT
TO GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH
ANY PRECIP QUICKLY EXITING THE AREA MID MORNING TUESDAY.

SOME WRAP AROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
SHOULD KEEP SKIES CLOUDY FOR PART OF THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES WITH GUSTY WINDS AND TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. A
SECOND UPPER WAVE STILL EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WEDNESDAY WITH A SECOND SURGE OF COOLER AIR MOVING SOUTH.
THIS WILL DROP TEMPS CLOSE TO FREEZING IN SOME AREAS BY
THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL AREAS
FRIDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE SFC HIGH WILL
SLIDE SOUTH A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...WHICH COULD
KEEP SOME AREAS JUST ABOVE THE MARK FRIDAY MORNING.

SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH WARMING
TEMPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE BY SUNDAY.
12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH ADVERTISING A COOLER AND
WETTER PATTERN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND AT LEAST HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF WINTER WEATHER OVER PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT THIS TIME THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TOO HIGH TO INCLUDE
ANY WINTER WEATHER IN THE FORECAST...BUT THE SITUATION WILL
OBVIOUSLY NEED TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  56  36  59 /  20  10   0   0
FSM   48  55  37  62 /  50  10   0   0
MLC   45  59  35  63 /  40   0   0   0
BVO   41  53  31  58 /  20  10   0   0
FYV   46  50  31  57 /  50  20   0   0
BYV   48  50  35  56 /  50  30   0   0
MKO   43  55  35  60 /  30   0   0   0
MIO   43  52  34  58 /  20  10   0   0
F10   42  57  35  61 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   49  62  38  64 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...07






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