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000 FXUS64 KTSA 101129 AFDTSA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 529 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010 .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN TODAY WITH MID CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010/ DISCUSSION... HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...WHICH COULD INHIBIT HIGH TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT. AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN TEXAS ON THURSDAY THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN THE PRECIP AREAS...SO DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME. CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD. COULD STILL SOME SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED BRIEFLY WITH SNOW BEHIND FRONT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...STAYING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH UPPER SPEED MAX ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO THE GFS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 38 29 41 29 / 0 10 10 10 FSM 38 26 38 31 / 0 10 30 40 MLC 40 30 38 31 / 0 20 50 30 BVO 36 24 40 27 / 0 10 10 10 FYV 34 22 38 27 / 0 10 10 20 BYV 32 20 38 28 / 0 10 10 20 MKO 37 28 39 30 / 0 10 20 20 MIO 34 23 41 28 / 0 10 10 10 F10 37 29 39 30 / 0 20 20 10 HHW 42 31 37 31 / 0 30 60 60 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...17