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WTNT44 KNHC 222031

400 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

The depression still has a well defined circulation, but the
associated convection has been gradually decreasing during the day.
Based on earlier reconnaissance data, the initial intensity is
kept at 30 kt. Given the deterioration of the cloud pattern and the
shear over the cyclone, it is less likely that the depression will
attain tropical storm status before it moves inland over the Yucatan
peninsula in about 12 hours or less. The NHC forecast keeps the
cyclone as a tropical depression through 5 days as it crosses
Yucatan and moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. There
is also a chance that the system dissipates over land in about 24
hours or so.  The GFS changed its tune significantly between the
06z and the 12z runs. It developed a strong tropical storm in the
Caribbean in the earlier run, and only a weak trough in the 12z one.
On the other hand, both the ECMWF and the HWRF maintain a cyclone
for the next few days. This makes the intensity forecast highly
uncertain, primarily since the GFS model could redevelop a cyclone
in the next run.

The depression has been moving slowly toward the east-southeast or
115 degrees at 4 knots.  The cyclone is located at the base of a
mid-level trough, embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. This
pattern will steer the depression on a general eastward track over
Yucatan, and as the trough lifts out the depression could meander
in the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Rains currently affecting western Cuba and south Florida are not
directly related to the tropical depression.


INIT  22/2100Z 19.2N  91.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 19.0N  91.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  23/1800Z 18.6N  90.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  24/0600Z 18.0N  89.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  24/1800Z 18.0N  88.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  25/1800Z 18.0N  87.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  26/1800Z 18.0N  85.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  27/1800Z 18.0N  84.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

Forecaster Avila

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