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281 FXUS62 KTBW 031357 AFDTBW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL 957 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2013 .UPDATE... BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE NEWLY NAMED TROPICAL STORM KAREN ENTERING THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE KEEPING MODERATE EAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...LIKELY TOO STRONG TO ALLOW AN ORGANIZED SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. KTBW 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS MODERATE MOISTURE AND FAIRLY WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 4 AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM KAREN IS FORECAST TO HEAD TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS TO THE LAND PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA. OVERALL...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. && .AVIATION... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD CAUSE SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY AT SRQ...PGD...FMY AND RSW. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. && .MARINE... A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GULF WATERS AND TROPICAL STORM KAREN ENTERING THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP EAST WINDS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE NEAR EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND POSSIBLY MUCH HIGHER DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN. MARINERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST CLOSELY BEFORE MAKING PLANS TO BOAT ON THE GULF THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 75 89 74 / 20 20 30 20 FMY 89 74 90 75 / 50 30 50 20 GIF 90 71 89 71 / 10 10 20 10 SRQ 89 74 88 74 / 40 30 50 20 BKV 90 71 89 70 / 10 10 30 10 SPG 89 77 87 76 / 20 20 40 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...FLEMING AVIATION...CLOSE