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464
FXUS62 KTBW 262017
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
317 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN US
COAST SHIFTS A BIT TO THE EAST. ANOTHER DRY REINFORCING FRONT WILL
BE APPROACHING THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY FROM THE W/NW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS
WEAKENING OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASING AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY. THE
CURRENT ADVISORIES ARE SET TO EXPIRE AS THE WINDS COME DOWN
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
NORTH...TO THE LOWER 40S TO NEAR 50 CENTRAL...AND MID 40S TO LOWER
50S SOUTH. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 60S...EXCEPT
AROUND 70 SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
STILL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING LONG TERM FORECAST. THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A LARGE RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BEHIND ANOTHER REINFORCING AND DRY COLD FRONT. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL SERVE TO DROP OUR TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 60 TO THE MID AND UPPER
60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THURSDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY WITH NO RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN
BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION WHICH WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY ON SATURDAY.
FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE AREA
DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND THEN MOVING
NORTHEAST...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
PROCESS. THIS ONE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS WITH IT SO
WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
END OF THE PERIOD WILL RUN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE BREEZY WNW
WINDS LIGHTENING AFTER SUNSET TO GENERALLY 8-11KTS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 27/15Z TO AROUND 11G20KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HOWEVER SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT AS SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO FALL BELOW
CRITICAL HEIGHTS. SCA WILL EXPIRE AT 03Z FOR TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE
HARBOR...12Z FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 15Z FOR THE OFFSHORE
ZONES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH DISPERSIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
MODERATE WINDS IN PLACE. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE A COUPLE OF
HOURS OF CRITICAL HUMIDITIES BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND SOILS ARE
MOIST. NO OTHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  48  66  47  62 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  50  70  51  67 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  44  65  45  62 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  49  69  51  63 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  40  65  39  61 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  52  66  52  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL
     HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL MANATEE-
     COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-
     HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND
     HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND LEVY-
     INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-
     POLK-SUMTER.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN







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