274
FXUS62 KTBW 040029
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
729 PM EST SUN MAR 3 2013

...COLD CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH FROST AND FREEZES POSSIBLE...

.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING DEEP
UPPER TROUGH DOWN THE EASTERN SEA BOARD MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THIS EVENING WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD WITH LOW LEVEL STRATO
CU FIELD OVER THE WARMER EASTERN GULF.

COLD TEMPS AROUND THE AREA THIS EVENING TO CONTINUE TO PLUMMET AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA BY MORNING AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT
UNDER CLEARING SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING TEMPS IN THE
NATURE COAST AND AREAS OF FROST OVER MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SW
FLORIDA ESPECIALLY IN NORMALLY WIND PROTECTED AND COLDER LOCATIONS
THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.

LATEST GRIDS AND FORECASTS ON TRACK...NO CHANGES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH WINDS LIGHTENING AND BECOMING
NNE BY MORNING...THEN INCREASING IN SPEED AND TURNING BACK TO THE
NW IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...GRADIENT WEAKENING THIS EVENING TO ALLOW WINDS TO LIGHTEN
OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING AS WELL. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW HEADLINES AND HIGHLIGHTED CONDITIONS AFTER 10
PM TONIGHT AND ALLOW SCA TO EXPIRE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  41  65  49  74 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  41  70  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  37  66  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  41  65  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  31  65  34  76 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  47  64  55  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     CHARLOTTE-LEE-SARASOTA.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR CITRUS-
     HERNANDO-LEVY-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE...25/DAVIS
AVIATION...24/COLSON