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294
FXUS62 KTBW 272027
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
327 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - FRIDAY)...
AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...EXCEPT FOR A BAND OF SCATTERED CLOUDS JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR HINTING AT THE LOCATION OF THE REINFORCING
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP STEADY NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...SETTING UP ANOTHER NIGHT
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. DESPITE MILD TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON...DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO REACH AROUND FREEZING OVER LEVY
COUNTY AND IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A FREEZE WARNING...WIND CHILLS READINGS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOW 30S OVER THE NATURE COAST...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS ARE
MARGINAL (AROUND 10 MPH)...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED FOR
PASCO COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH INLAND SARASOTA/DESOTO/HIGHLANDS
COUNTIES. WIND CHILLS WILL BE EVEN LOWER OVER THE NATURE
COAST...HOWEVER ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE MORE STRICT THERE.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ZERO RAIN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL WILL BE A BIT COOLER...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY - THURSDAY)...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN CANADA...AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE U.S ROCKIES...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
NORTHWEST MEXICO...AND A TROUGH OVER ATLANTIC WATERS. AT THE
SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED FROM THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

WITH TIME THE CANADIAN TROUGH ROTATES DOWN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE MEXICAN SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TRACKS EAST. IN RESPONSE THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND SLIDES
ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD...STRUNG OUT FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST TO
NEW ENGLAND FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINALLY FROM THE GULF TO
THE GREAT LAKES TRACKS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC BUT CONTINUES TO RIDGE
BACK THROUGH THE EAST AND CENTRAL GULF COAST. DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK THE PLAINS HIGH MOVES EAST...BRIDGING THE BY NOW
DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND REINFORCING THE RIDGE FROM THE
ATLANTIC.

THE UPPER RIDGING MOVING BY WILL BE THE DOMINATE FACTOR WITH A
DRY AIRMASS KEEPING THE FORECAST RAIN FREE. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY
NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL GRADUALLY WARM TO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT
ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY
WINDS...ROBUST AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ON THE GULF.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND HAS
EXITED THE REGION JUST SOUTH OF FORT MYERS. WINDS HAVE INCREASED
AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED...AND NOW WILL INCLUDE
TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND BECOME NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE
WATERS. FOR THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL BECOME EAST AND LIGHTEN A BIT
EACH DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOW TO MID
30 PERCENT RANGE. HOWEVER...LOW ERC VALUES WILL PREVENT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  42  61  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  44  67  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  40  62  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  43  63  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  34  60  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  48  61  52  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL PASCO-DESOTO-HARDEE-
     HIGHLANDS-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
     PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-POLK.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR CHARLOTTE
     HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...09/RUDE AND 69/CLOSE
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE






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