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549
FXUS62 KTAE 221455
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
955 AM EST Mon Dec 22 2014

...Severe Weather and Flooding Possible Across the Region on Tuesday
and Wednesday...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Regional 12Z surface analysis shows the warm front has progressed
northward into the southeastern third of our forecast area. The lift
from the progression of the front, along with deep southwesterly
flow bringing in moisture from the Gulf, is allowing for continued
showers across the forecast area, with increasing coverage over our
coastal waters and in the Cross City area. Water vapor imagery
continues to show a small dry slot moving in from our west, with
convection popping up behind its western edge. This dry air will
mean a brief decrease in intensity of rainfall as it moves in, but
we will still be on track for another cloudy, cool, rainy day. Cloud
cover and rainfall will keep daytime temperatures low, peaking in
the 50s to low 60s closer to the coast.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Tuesday] IFR ceilings will prevail for most of the
TAF for all terminals. There may, however, be a brief period of
time in the afternoon where ceilings lift to MVFR levels, though
no scattering is expected.


&&

.Prev Discussion [602 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

A developing low pressure system off to our west will begin to
amplify across the lower MS Valley region during the next couple of
days and eventually form a potent and moisture laden system over
the SE on Tuesday. This very energetic low is then expected to move
rapidly north-northeast from the Central Gulf coast states into the
eastern Great Lakes by Wednesday night and Thursday, pushing a
strong cold front through our region later on Wednesday. Along with
the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms with the
pre-frontal squall line, a band of very heavy rainfall with
potential flooding is quite possible as well, and this has prompted
a Flash Flood Watch across our region from Tuesday morning through
Wednesday evening. Storm total rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches
(with locally higher amounts) are definitely possible during this
time frame, which unfortunately, is centered around Christmas Eve.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

After the passage of the strong cold front on Wednesday night,
conditions will rapidly return to normal on Thursday (Christmas Day)
with fair and seasonably cool weather to return for much of the
extended period.


.Marine...

A developing low pressure system to our west will will continue to
tighten the pressure pattern over the the marine area during the
next few days. This will result in steadily increasing onshore winds
and seas, with Small Craft Advisory Conditions developing on Tuesday
and Wednesday. Boating conditions are expected to become quite
hazardous on Wednesday and Wednesday night with seas peaking at 8 to
10 feet. Conditions across the coastal waters will rapidly improve
on Thursday and Friday as the strong cold front moves much further
away from the marine area.


.Fire Weather...

A stretch of wet weather will preclude any hazardous fire weather
conditions over the next several days.


.Hydrology...

A developing low pressure system off to our west will continue to
open up plenty of moisture in the Gulf of Mexico through the middle
of this week, with a strong low pressure system expected to develop
and sweep a strong cold front through our region by Wednesday
evening. This system, with its vast onshore flow, will have the
potential to bring heavy rain to much of our region on both Tuesday
and Wednesday. With embedded heavy thunderstorms, some of which
could be severe, the potential for widespread rainfall totals of 4
to 6 inches (with locally higher amounts) could cause flash flooding
in certain locations. The most likely areas for flooding will be low
lying and poor drainage areas, but widespread 4 to 6 inch amounts
could cause flooding on some of of our more vulnerable rivers and
streams as well.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   64  58  72  63  71 /  70  50  80  90  80
Panama City   66  60  71  66  68 /  80  50  90 100  70
Dothan        56  54  71  61  69 /  80  50  90 100  70
Albany        53  51  71  60  67 /  80  50  90 100  80
Valdosta      61  57  73  63  73 /  70  50  80  90  80
Cross City    69  64  73  64  73 /  70  50  60  90  80
Apalachicola  69  63  69  65  69 /  70  50  80  90  80

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flash Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening
     for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal
     Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
     Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland
     Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-
     Liberty-Madison-South Walton-Washington.

GA...Flash Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening
     for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-
     Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-
     Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Flash Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
     afternoon for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GOULD







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