The same data is available at this site. Please update your bookmarks.
Thank you, and we apologize for the inconvenience.
Please send an email to SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov with any concerns.
026 FXUS62 KTAE 120736 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 336 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2014 .Near Term [Today]... Most of the rain will have ended by daybreak. There will be a slight chance at best for a few showers along the cold front as it sweeps through the local region this afternoon. Breezy west to northwest winds can be expected in the wake of the front. Skies should be mostly cloudy but just enough insolation to keep temps at or above seasonal levels. Max temps will range from the lower 70s for the northwest corner of our Alabama zones to the lower 80s for most of the Florida Big Bend and our southernmost Georgia counties. && .Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]... Behind the upper level disturbance which brought us the widespread but fairly short lived area of rain overnight will be a fairly strong but generally dry cold front which will push through the region later today and tonight. This front will bring one more batch of unseasonably cold and dry air to the region tonight and Thursday, along with fairly breezy conditions. Low temps tonight will generally range from the mid to upper 30s, but the fairly persistent NW winds will bring wind chill readings down into the upper 20s to the middle 30s. High temps on Thursday will struggle to recover back into the middle 50s north to the lower 60s to the south, which will set the stage for an interesting night on Thursday night. With the ridge of high pressure expected to be just off to our NE, much lighter winds will allow low temperatures to cool off a bit more than tonight, and although a widespread light freeze is not yet being forecast, it is certainly a possibility which bears close watching. Used a fairly extensive blend of both raw model and numerical guidance in this fcst, and this produced low temps that were cold enough for a few spots (mainly along the Suwannee River Valley) to briefly hit the freezing mark, but many more locations across the Tri-State area could see a few hours of frost. So, for those with more sensitive vegetation, this is certainly something to keep in mind after this most recent brief warm spell, and should freezing or sub-freezing temperatures become more likely, Freeze Watches or Warnings may be need to be issued. By Friday, high temps will be on their way back towards more climatological levels, generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s away from the coast. .Long Term [Friday Night Through Tuesday]... After max temps rebound into the upper 60s to the lower 70s on Friday as an approaching shortwave over northern Mexico propagates eastward, a significantly milder night is expected with lows back into the 40s on Friday night. Ahead of this, mean southerly flow will prime the atmosphere for another round of rain heading into the weekend. The GFS and EURO both agree that the upper level pattern will divide into a split stream with a positively tilted trough axis extending from Mexico over the eastern CONUS. This will keep PoPs up from Saturday afternoon through Monday. Best chances for rain will be on Saturday, with a 50-20% NW to SE gradient, thereafter chances will remain 30-40% for the entire CWA. && .Aviation... [Through 06Z Thursday] Although the rain will be east of all terminals by 09z-10Z, mostly IFR cigs will stick around at least through the morning hours. MVFR cigs may even linger for most of the day. It will be a breezy day with southwest to west winds veering to northwest as a cold front pushes through this afternoon. Wind speeds will generally be in the 15 to 20 kt range with higher gusts. && .Marine... Winds will begin to increase out of the west and southwest ahead of a fairly strong but generally dry cold front today, with winds and seas expected to quickly ramp up to Small Craft Advisory levels out of the northwest and north tonight. Therefore, have initiated an Advisory for tonight into early tomorrow morning for the nearshore waters, and one with the same beginning time, but ending early tomorrow afternoon for the offshore legs. Winds and seas are expected to return to light to moderate levels for much of the remainder of the period. && .Fire Weather... Cooler and drier air along with breezy northwest winds will filter in behind a cold front later today. Relative humidity values are forecast to drop into the lower to mid 20 percent range across most of the Tri-state region on Thursday. However, at this time it doesn`t appear that the other Red Flag criteria will be met. && .Hydrology... With only about 0.25" to 0.75" of rain falling across the HSA overnight, no significant changes in river forecasts and levels are anticipated over the next few days. .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 81 39 61 33 71 / 10 0 0 0 0 Panama City 77 42 61 42 67 / 10 0 0 0 0 Dothan 74 35 59 37 70 / 10 0 0 0 0 Albany 77 35 56 35 70 / 10 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 82 38 60 35 73 / 20 0 0 0 0 Cross City 81 42 62 33 71 / 10 10 0 0 0 Apalachicola 78 43 61 43 65 / 10 0 0 0 0 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning through this evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Thursday for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Thursday for Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...BARRY SHORT TERM...GOULD LONG TERM...FOURNIER/WALSH AVIATION...BARRY MARINE...GOULD FIRE WEATHER...BARRY HYDROLOGY...GOULD