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124
FXUS62 KTAE 241431
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1031 AM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014

.Update...

No noteworthy updates were necessary to the previous forecast.

.Hydrology...

Most of our area rivers are above normal stage with many in flood
stage. The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is at major flood stage. Most
area rivers have already crested with the exception of the
Withlacoochee in Florida and the Suwannee River, where river levels
will continue to rise slowly for the remainder of the week. The next
chance for any significant rainfall is next Tuesday. At this time,
QPF values are low, around 0.75-1.25 inches.


The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Prev Discussion [322 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Patchy dense fog early this morning should burn off by mid-morning,
with partly cloudy skies dominating for the remainder of the day.
The ridge over the southeastern states early this morning will slide
east through the day as a shortwave trough digs into the Mississippi
Delta region. With zonal flow aloft and a dry atmosphere in place,
expect to see temperatures warm into the mid 80s this afternoon away
from the coast. An isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out closer
to the Suwannee River this afternoon as the east coast and gulf
seabreezes meet up. Elsewhere, dry weather is expected.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

A weak disturbance will approach the region on Thursday evening
and move just to the north of the region on Friday. While this
disturbance will bring a slight increase in moisture, large scale
forcing is relatively weak, so rain chances will be kept at 10
percent or less. Following the passing of this disturbance on
Friday evening, drier air will filter into the region from the
northwest as a stronger deep layer ridge starts to build in across
the forecast area late Saturday.

Temperatures throughout the period will continue to be warm,
though cloud cover on Friday will likely limit temperatures to the
low to mid 80s in the afternoon. As the deep layer ridge becomes
more established by Saturday, temperatures will trend upward with
upper 80s likely across many of the inland locations Saturday
afternoon. Low temperatures will continue to stay a few degrees
above normal, generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s. With the
strong sea breeze circulation expected, temperatures during the
afternoon near the coast will be several degrees cooler.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The period begins with upper level ridging in place with surface
high pressure off of the coast of South Carolina. To our northwest,
an upper level low will begin to deepen over the central Plains as a
shortwave trough propagates through it, deepening a surface low
beneath it. As the shortwave trough swings through Monday, the low
will become cut off and move eastward, pushing the surface low
across the Plains and into the Ohio valley. The associated front
will bring thunderstorms to our area Monday through Tuesday. The GFS
is showing around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 30-40 kts, so there is
the potential for some of these storms to be strong to severe. The
system may linger over the eastern portion of the forecast area
Tuesday night-Wednesday, but instability will be lower by mid-week,
reducing the chances of severe weather.


.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Friday] IFR visibility expected at KTLH, KVLD, and
KECP this morning, with conditions possibly approaching airport
minimums. VFR conditions should return by mid-morning and hold
through the remainder of the day. Another potentially foggy night
is possible tonight.


.Marine...

Outside of the daily sea breeze circulation, winds and seas will
remain low through the weekend. An increase in onshore winds and
seas across the entire marine area is anticipated by Monday ahead
of an approaching storm system.


.Fire Weather...

Low level moisture levels will remain high enough to prevent any Red
Flag conditions through Friday, as minimum relative humidity values
stay in the 40s. As transport winds increase on Friday, dispersion
values will increase into the 70s and 80s for inland locations.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   85  60  84  60  85 /  10  10  10  10   0
Panama City   75  64  78  64  79 /   0  10  10  10   0
Dothan        83  61  84  59  87 /  10  10  10  10   0
Albany        83  61  84  59  87 /  10  10  10  10   0
Valdosta      87  59  84  60  87 /  10  10  10  10   0
Cross City    82  58  81  60  84 /  10  10  10  10   0
Apalachicola  75  64  76  64  75 /   0  10  10  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...MOORE







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