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521
FXUS62 KTAE 211903
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
303 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Skies have remained sunny across much of the area today with a
relatively dry air mass in place. This is expected to continue
through tonight with the deeper moisture positioned to the south
over the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula. Given the dry
air mass, clear skies, and calm winds, we expect a fairly cool
night with below normal temperatures. The low temperature forecast
calls for upper 40s north, to around 50 in the I-10 corridor, to
the low to mid 50s at the coast. We followed the general pattern
of the multi-model consensus, but undercut it by a degree or two
given the favorable conditions for efficient radiational cooling.


.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
The dry pattern will continue. A weak cold front will move through
on Wednesday with little fanfare other than to reinforce the dry
airmass already in place. Under abundant sunshine, daytime highs
both days will be just under seasonal levels. With the dry airmass
in place, low temps will be below normal. Lows Wednesday night
will dip into the lower to mid 40s all zones except around 50 to
the lower 50s along the coast.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
The dry pattern is expected to continue through the extended. Mean
upper level troughing along the east coast is expected to keep
deep moisture from returning to the area. Late in the period, the
pattern may start to change with a ridge building off the east
coast. However, no significant systems are expected to affect the
area for the next several days with PoPs below 20 percent.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Wednesday] VFR conditions with clear skies are
expected to prevail through the TAF period. Northwest to north
winds around 5-10 knots will become calm overnight.

&&

.Marine...
Offshore flow will prevail for the next several days. Winds and
seas will increase on Wednesday as another dry cold front moves
through. Exercise caution conditions are possible on Wednesday
night, especially farther offshore.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Progressively drier air will continue to filter into
the region during the next few days. No fire weather problems are
expected on Wednesday, but some areas may be of concern for
Thursday afternoon, and will be monitored closely.

&&

.Hydrology...
Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   50  80  45  78  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   57  79  52  76  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        49  76  44  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        48  76  44  76  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      49  77  44  76  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    51  81  45  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  57  79  51  76  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...DVD







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