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768
FXUS62 KTAE 280105
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
805 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Saturday]...

VFR conditions under clear skies and light northwest winds are
forecast overnight at all terminals. Tomorrow, winds will turn
more northerly, but remain relatively light.

&&

.Prev Discussion [350 PM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The dry cold front that passed through this morning continues to
progress on down through Florida. Overall there hasn`t been much in
the way of airmass change behind this front, aside from it being
just slightly cooler. High pressure at 19z was still located across
western Arkansas - but moving eastward. Model guidance is still
split on how cool temperatures will be tonight, which does make
sense given that the positioning of the surface high pressure area
in the NAM/GFS are quite different. Pretty much across the board,
the GFS-based MAV MOS is coldest, and this make sense given the GFS
has the furthest east position of the surface ridge. Even with the
GFS position, the ridge is still too far west for the min temps its
predicting in the Fla Big Bend. Moreover, with an airmass that isn`t
anomalously cold, this may be just another case where the guidance
is exhibiting a cold bias. With that being said, will trend
tonight`s overnight temperatures a couple degrees warmer than the
consensus of the guidance, except across far western areas where a
couple of hours of calm winds should help these areas have a light
freeze.


.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

The relatively cold weather pattern will continue through Saturday
morning. With shallow vertical mixing, highs Friday will remain
about 10 deg below average (generally in the mid 50s), despite ample
sun. The surface ridge will be moving east of our forecast area
Friday night, but it still appears close enough for calm winds
across much of the region. We expect a light freeze away from the
cities and beaches, with plenty of frost. Deep layer ridging will
begin to take shape over the Southeast Saturday afternoon, with
highs returning to near average (mid 60s). Lows Sunday will only
below a few degrees below average, in the lower to mid 40s.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

The deep layer ridging on Sunday and Monday will begin to break down
a bit early Tuesday, as a weak 500mb trough ambles slowly eastward.
It`s doubtful this trough will have any major influence on our local
weather in terms of temperature change or rain chances. Some
discrepancy arises between the 12 UTC GFS & ECMWF mid to late week,
as the ECMWF brings a cold front through our region while the GFS
rebuilds a deep layer ridge. A compromise of these solutions gives a
20% PoP for Wednesday & Wednesday night. Lows will be near average
through the period, generally in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Highs
will also be near average, in the upper 60s to mid 70s.


.Marine...

Advisory conditions will persist beyond 20 NM offshore through
Friday morning, followed by a decrease in winds and seas for the
weekend.


.Fire Weather...

Cool afternoon highs will offset low dewpoints to keep relative
humidity values above critical levels on Friday. On Saturday, return
flow will commence and increase dewpoints, with moisture levels well
above critical thresholds through next week.


.Hydrology...

The Ochlockonee River is cresting at Thomasville about 2 feet above
action stage. As this water further moves downstream toward Concord
and Havana, expect these sites to similarly crest above action stage
late on Sunday or early on Monday. The Little River in Srn GA is
continuing to rise with a crest expected late this weekend above
action stage at Hahira. Water in this and the Withlacoochee will
contribute to rises downstream into the middle Suwannee, but these
rises will be minor and stay well below action stage. Elsewhere, our
river points have crested from earlier rains, with the exception of
the lower portions of the Choctawhatchee and Apalachicola Rivers.
With no significant rain expected for the next week, no additional
river issues are anticipated in the near future.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   35  57  31  66  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   39  56  41  65  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        31  55  34  65  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        31  54  32  64  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      32  55  32  65  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    35  57  31  68  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  38  57  42  64  52 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







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