[Printable]
968 FXUS62 KTAE 200109 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 909 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2013 .NEAR TERM [Tonight]... Thunderstorms across the Florida Big Bend and SW Georgia are dissipating. There may be a few more brief, smaller showers scattered across the area tonight, but the stronger storms are done for the evening now that nocturnal cooling has set in and the showers and thunderstorms earlier have worked over the air mass. Lows tonight will be in the low 70s. && .SHORT TERM [Thursday through Friday Night]... A upper level trough situated across most of the eastern seaboard will remain the main controller of our weather pattern beginning of the short term period. The associated surface low pressure is located just offshore of the coastal Carolinas. Stemming from the surface low is a stationary frontal boundary draped across our southern Georgia counties. This frontal boundary will give an enhanced chance for thunderstorms in the late afternoon hours keeping our POPS in the 40-50% range. Although CAPE values are very marginal, the equivalent potential temperature difference between the surface and the 700-500 mb layer would suggest, if severe weather were to occur, it would be damaging wind gusts. Severe hail does not appear to be an issue with 500 mb temperatures being too warm. Expect highs in the lower 90s during peak heating hours of the afternoon and lows bottoming out in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM [Saturday through Wednesday]... A weak wave of low pressure diving southward cuts off, settling over the western Florida panhandle. This will lead to an unsettled weather pattern through Tuesday with afternoon PoPs enhanced slightly to around 50%. By the end of the long term period the Bermuda High will return our area to our usual summertime pattern, with the main concern being afternoon sea breeze storms. High temps will be in the lower 90s and low temps will be in the lower 70s. && .AVIATION [Through 00Z Friday]... VFR conditions should be seen at all terminals overnight besides brief MVFR conditions in the early morning at KVLD and KABY. The pattern for afternoon convection tomorrow looks highly variable and chaotic, so only afternoon VCTS are included in the current TAF package. && .MARINE... As a frontal boundary to our north slowly inches south, a localized tightening of the pressure gradient will allow for an increase in winds this afternoon. Expect winds out the southwest at 10-15 knots, mainly in our nearshore waters. This will allow for a slight increase in seas around 2 to 3 feet. After the cold front weakens, another ridge of high pressure will build to our northeast keeping our CWA in a light E/SE flow and seas 1-2 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels thus precluding red flag conditions for the foreseeable future. && .HYDROLOGY... No problems are anticipated in the near future. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 71 90 71 92 71 / 40 50 30 50 30 Panama City 74 91 75 89 74 / 30 50 30 40 20 Dothan 70 93 71 92 71 / 30 40 20 40 20 Albany 71 93 71 90 71 / 30 40 30 40 20 Valdosta 70 91 70 90 70 / 50 60 40 40 40 Cross City 71 92 71 91 71 / 30 50 30 40 30 Apalachicola 74 90 73 88 75 / 30 40 30 40 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Moore AVIATION...Gould/Heller FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan REST OF DISCUSSION...Harrigan/Navarro