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450
ACUS11 KWNS 240221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240221
TXZ000-OKZ000-240315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0391
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0921 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL AND SWRN OK/PART OF NW AND W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88...

VALID 240221Z - 240315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG-SEVERE STORMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 03-04Z
ACROSS SWRN-WEST CENTRAL OK AND OVER NWRN TX AS CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO MOVE EAST TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL TX AND CENTRAL OK.  HAIL AND
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS.

NEW WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED INTO CENTRAL OK AND/OR NORTH
CENTRAL TX.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED JUST A COUPLE
STRONG-SEVERE STORMS REMAINING WITHIN AND JUST E OF WW 88 /IN YOUNG
AND STONEWALL COUNTIES TX AND KIOWA COUNTY OK/.  LIGHTNING
TRENDS...ASIDE FROM THESE STORMS...HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED.  THIS
COMBINED WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
INDICATIVE OF AN OVERALL REDUCTION IN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION IS STRENGTHENING PER THE LOSS OF DAY-TIME
HEATING AND LIKELY REDUCING THE INGEST OF SURFACE-BASED PARCELS TO
EXISTING UPDRAFTS.  HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED ONGOING
STRONG-SEVERE STORMS MAY SURVIVE FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS AS A 40-45 KT
SLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TX INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK PROVIDES AN
INFLUX OF GREATER INSTABILITY RESIDING OVER CENTRAL AND WRN NORTH
TX.  THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIMITED AS THE CAP
CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

..PETERS.. 04/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   32140059 33200039 33519994 35059933 35909912 36059811
            35969792 33949780 33109787 32519833 32089921 32140059





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