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497
ACUS11 KWNS 230734
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230733
LAZ000-231000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1939
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 230733Z - 231000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A WATCH WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS
OF SERN LA WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HRS.  WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT BUT A QLCS MESOVORTEX TORNADO RISK MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
SQUALL LINE.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NWRN
GULF DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE SHOWN AN INTENSE QLCS TRACKING
ENEWD WITH THE EAST BREAKS OIL PLATFORM AND KHQI OBSERVING SEVERE
GUSTS /75 AND 51 KT RESPECTIVELY/.  THE MARINE WARM FRONT IS ROUGHLY
30 MI FROM THE LA COAST AND WILL LIKELY PENETRATE THE COAST AND
TERREBONNE PARISH WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MESOLOW OVER THE
NWRN GULF DEVELOPS NEWD INTO SWRN LA.  A MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS
S OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT A SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT.
LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION SHOWS THE BOWING SEGMENT WITHIN THE QLCS
APPROACHING THE COAST OF ST. MARY AND TERREBONNE PARISH PRIOR TO
10Z.  THE THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS IN THE FORM OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE ACROSS SERN LA AS THE WARM FRONT
ADVANCES NWD AND AS THE QLCS APPROACHES.  GIVEN THE MOIST AND
STRONGLY SHEARED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE...A QLCS TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH ANY LONGER-LIVED AND STRONGER MESOVORTEX.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 11/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29599213 29889088 30208975 29708888 29078906 29009052
            29309190 29599213





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