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543
ACUS11 KWNS 012321
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012320
ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-020045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1786
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0620 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AND EAST-CENTRAL KS/FAR NERN OK TO SWRN AND
CENTRAL MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 511...

VALID 012320Z - 020045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 511 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 511...WITH ALL
SEVERE HAZARDS REMAINING A POTENTIAL THREAT.  A SEVERE TSTM WATCH
ISSUANCE IS BEING CONSIDERED TO THE EAST OF WW 511 INTO PARTS OF
SWRN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL IL.  MEANWHILE...STRONG-SEVERE STORMS HAVE
MOVED ENEWD THROUGH SERN AND EAST-CENTRAL KS INTO MO...THOUGH NEW
STORM DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL IS BEING MONITORED ACROSS SERN TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...SUCH THAT THIS PORTION OF WW 511 SHOULD NOT BE
CANCELLED YET.

DISCUSSION...AT 2310Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THREE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM AREAS ACROSS WW 511...EACH PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER
EVENTS.  THE ERN MOST CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS MOVING EWD AT 30+ KT AND
SHOULD REACH THE ERN PART OF THIS WATCH BY 00Z /NEAR THE WRN PART OF
ST CHARLES COUNTY MO/.  THE ENVIRONMENT TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
INCLUDING THE STL METRO AREA REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH THE
STORMS APPROACHING ST CHARLES COUNTY TENDING TO TRACK EWD ALONG AN
OUTFLOW RE-ENFORCED WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD JUST NORTH OF KSTL.
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND A MARGINAL TORNADO
THREAT.  MEANWHILE...THE ENVIRONMENT EWD INTO IL IS RELATIVELY
DRIER/LOWER THETA-E AIR MASS AS COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FARTHER WEST
AND IS RESULTING IN WEAKER INSTABILITY.  STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD AWAY FROM ERN MO/CENTRAL IL THIS
EVENING...THOUGH THIS REGION MAY BE GLANCED BY THE SRN EXTENT OF
THIS FORCING TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED TSTM POTENTIAL INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.  12Z 4 KM WRF-NMM/WRF-NSSL BOTH SUGGEST STORMS WILL MOVE
EWD ACROSS THE STL METRO AREA THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY TRACK INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL IL GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED LESS-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT.

WWD INTO CENTRAL MO...ANY STORMS DEVELOPING AND/OR MOVING ALONG E-W
ORIENTED BOUNDARY WILL HAVE AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION/TORNADO THREAT...GIVEN PROXIMITY TO STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
SRH/SHEAR.

MEANWHILE...RADAR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED NEW STORMS IN BUTLER
COUNTY KS AND IN SRN MONTGOMERY COUNTY KS...WHILE VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWED THESE STORMS LOCATED WITHIN AREAS OF CU/TCU/CB WHERE THE
PARAMETER SPACE FOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 10/01/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
OUN...

LAT...LON   39648922 38838901 38118903 37748938 37689020 37699099
            37649150 37409246 37099298 36979359 36879437 36789519
            36699586 36849679 37219730 37989725 38449675 38419619
            38699551 38819438 39249345 39409107 39678947 39648922





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