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735
ACUS11 KWNS 151721
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151720
PAZ000-MDZ000-151945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1899
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MD INTO SERN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 151720Z - 151945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH STORMS AS THEY DEVELOP NWD FROM MD INTO SERN PA.

DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED STRONG CELL WITH SUBSTANTIAL VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NWD ALONG A N-S ORIENTED BOUNDARY
WHICH EXTENDS INTO PA AND LINKS WITH AN EXISTING FRONT ACROSS ERN PA
WHICH CURRENTLY SEPARATES THE MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SE.

THIS PARTICULAR STORM HAS HAD A PERSISTENT AND BROAD CIRCULATION
WITH IT...BUT NOTHING PARTICULARLY STRONG OR TIGHT PROBABLY DUE TO
WEAK LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY/ACCELERATION. WHILE DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS
STRONG ABOVE THE GROUND...MOST OF THE SHEAR IS RELEGATED TO THE
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER AND OTHER CELLS AWAY FROM THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HAVE SHOWN LITTLE IF ANY SHEAR. THEREFORE...ANY WIND/TOR THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...SHORT-LIVED AND ISOLATED...AND A WATCH IS NOT
EXPECTED.

..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 10/15/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   39157664 39007677 38987688 39067699 39267696 39617690
            40007679 40347640 40457615 40407593 40137594 39617620
            39157664





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