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163
ACUS11 KWNS 310401
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310400
NDZ000-SDZ000-310530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1642
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478...

VALID 310400Z - 310530Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS THROUGH THE 05-07Z TIME FRAME.  HOWEVER...THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AND THE REMAINING VALID
PORTION OF THE WATCH COULD BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO THE SCHEDULED 07Z
EXPIRATION.

DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH LINGERING STORMS ARE GENERALLY ALIGNED ALONG A
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS WHICH HAS STRENGTHENED TO 40-50 KT AT
850 MB...ACTIVITY GENERALLY APPEARS ROOTED WITHIN A LAYER OF FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION...ABOVE AN INCREASINGLY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH EASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.  AND
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER APPEARS
SUPPRESSED BY INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH A PLUME OF WARMER ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER AIR EMERGING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WHICH MAY
CONTINUE TO MAKE NORTHWARD PROGRESS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.  THERE APPEARS LITTLE EVIDENCE
TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE FURTHER CONVECTIVE
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE RISK FOR
SEVERE WIND GUSTS SEEMS LOW.

..KERR.. 08/31/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   47490228 48030147 47989994 46369878 44829937 44080021
            44290113 45990112 47490228





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