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ACUS11 KWNS 170924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170924
CAZ000-171130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1980
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF COASTAL SRN CA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 170924Z - 171130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LIMITED RISK FOR A MARGINALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO --
OR POSSIBLY A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO -- IS EVIDENT OVER COASTAL PORTIONS
OF VENTURA/LOS ANGELES/ORANGE COUNTIES IN SRN CA EARLY THIS MORNING.
 WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA DEPICT A SMALL CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE CHANNEL ISLANDS AREA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL SRN CA ATTM...COINCIDENT WITH A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THIS AREA PER WV LOOP.

DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOW 50S...RELATIVELY STEEP
LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL CAPE /A FEW HUNDRED J/KG PER OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES/...THUS FUELING UPDRAFTS WHICH ARE EXTENDING THROUGH THE
MIXED-PHASE /-20 C/ LAYER.

WHILE AREA VWPS DEPICT RELATIVELY MODEST /20 TO 30 KT/ SWLYS THROUGH
H5...BACKED/SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE STORMS SEEM TO BE
AIDING IN OCCASIONAL WEAK/SHORT-LIVED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS IN
STRONGER CELLS -- AS OBSERVED BY KVTX /VENTURA/ WSR-88D.  GIVEN THE
SUSTAINED/WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS...A VERY ISOLATED/LOW-END SEVERE
RISK MAY SPREAD ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  WITH THAT
SAID...ANY RISK FOR STRONG WINDS AND/OR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO SHOULD
REMAIN WELL BELOW THRESHOLDS REQUIRED TO CONSIDER WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS/THOMPSON.. 12/17/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGX...LOX...

LAT...LON   33831966 34421979 34531953 34431907 34101833 33781773
            33401780 33231830 33171948 33391973 33831966





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