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982
ACUS11 KWNS 261445
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261444
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-261615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1467
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0944 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...NERN NEB AND NWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261444Z - 261615Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY PERSIST AND CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND EVENTUALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH
SERN SD...NERN NEB AND NWRN IA. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING A CLUSTER OF STORMS WITH OCCASIONAL
LARGE HAIL SIGNATURES WAS LOCATED JUST NW OF SIOUX FALLS SD AREA.
THE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ELEVATED. HOWEVER...THE DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY
LAYER IS VERY MOIST WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS AND WILL EXPERIENCE
CONSIDERABLE DIABATIC WARMING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE
EVOLUTION OF THIS MCS IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...CONCERN IS THAT STORMS
WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SURFACE BASED AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD.
MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN ZONE OF
HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH SEWD MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST
NORTH OF THE ND BORDER. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50-60 KT...MODERATE CAPE
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS.

..DIAL/HART.. 07/26/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF...

LAT...LON   43439774 43649628 42889389 41829386 41409613 42469823
            43129845 43439774





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