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354
ACUS03 KWNS 290617
SWODY3
SPC AC 290616

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY...WITH GENERAL
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO TRAVERSE NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. ELSEWHERE...A FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
CNTRL TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH MAINLY A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WITH CLUSTERS OF STORMS ONGOING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SLY FLOW OFF
THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO.

...NRN NEW ENGLAND...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THU AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A COLD
FRONT. THE COOL PROFILES ALOFT ALONG WITH MID 50S BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO AROUND 500 J/KG MUCAPE. STRONG...MAINLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL EXIST FAVORING PERHAPS LOW-TOPPED
SPLITTING CELLS OR SMALL BOWS. HAIL WILL BE A DISTINCT THREAT...AND
THE STRONG MEAN FLOW SUGGESTS A FEW DAMAGING WIND REPORTS MAY ALSO
OCCUR BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A SLIGHT.

..JEWELL.. 07/29/2014





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