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661
ACUS03 KWNS 230635
SWODY3
SPC AC 230634

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG...OR PERHAPS ONE OR TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND ALONG A DRYLINE
OVER NORTHWESTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

...SERN U.S...

SUBTLE BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  TIMING OF THIS FEATURE DOES
NOT CORRELATE WELL WITH DIURNAL HEATING BUT IT MAY PROVE ADEQUATE IN
GENERATING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL CAROLINAS.  IF TIMING
OF SHORT WAVE IS TOO EARLY THEN STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING COULD
STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH FOR A FEW POST-SHORT WAVE TSTMS
WITHIN VEERED BUT MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  FOR NOW WILL INTRODUCE
5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR POOR TIMING OF SHORT WAVE AND
WEAKLY CONVERGENT LOW LEVELS.

...SRN PLAINS DRYLINE...

LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHARPENING ACROSS THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AFTEROON AS TROUGHING ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
WRN U.S.  INTENSE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS FORECAST ACROSS WRN
TX/OK DURING THE DAY WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR THROUGH THE
80S TO PERHAPS NEAR 90F AND THIS SHOULD BE ADEQUATE IN REMOVING
EARLY-DAY INHIBITION.  ONE MAJOR CONCERN FOR ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE IS THE EXPECTED SHORT-WAVE RIDGING
FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.  IT/S NOT ENTIRELY
CLEAR HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL ULTIMATELY EVOLVE...WITH THE PRIMARY
THREAT DURING THE 22Z-03Z TIME FRAME.  NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
ALLOWING A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO EVOLVE WITHIN AIRMASS
CHARACTERIZED BY 1500 J/KG SBCAPE BUT STRONGLY SHEARED...SFC-6KM
VALUES APPROACHING 50KT.  LOW SEVERE PROBS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/WIND.

..DARROW.. 04/23/2014





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