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704
ACUS03 KWNS 240717
SWODY3
SPC AC 240716

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO IDENTIFY A MARGINAL SEVERE-HAIL AREA.

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT E FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE NRN
GREAT PLAINS THROUGH EARLY MON...WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE MOVING FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD
TRACK FROM THE LEE OF THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES ACROSS THE SRN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING E AND REACHING THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NE
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST.

...UPPER MIDWEST...
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ELEVATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SUN NIGHT. GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH THE
DEGREE OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY AS THE NAM AND WRF-BASED SREF MEMBERS
APPEAR MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH 850-700 MB MOISTURE RETURN COMPARED TO
THE GFS AND NON-NCEP MODELS. LEANING WITH THE LESS AGGRESSIVE
GUIDANCE...THE PREDOMINANT SWLY FLOW REGIME SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP
TSTM DEVELOPMENT TO ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTURE PLUME
WHERE BUOYANCY SHOULD BE WEAK. GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
DEPARTING MID-LEVEL RIDGE...EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE.
IN CONJUNCTION WITH A PROBABLE CLUSTER MODE...IT APPEARS PREMATURE
TO HIGHLIGHT WHAT MAY ONLY BE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MARGINAL SEVERE
HAIL POTENTIAL.

..GRAMS.. 10/24/2014





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