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ACUS03 KWNS 190732
SWODY3
SPC AC 190731

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A ISOLATED STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST...ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND OVER FLORIDA.

...SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MS VALLEY TO THE MIDWEST/LOWER OH VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MARKING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS
PA/NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD FIRM ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. WHILE A CLOSED LOW MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN...FROM NV/UT INTO SOUTHERN ID. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED AND PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS THIS
PERIOD WILL EXIST WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
UPPER OH VALLEY AND PA/NY...AND WITH THE CLOSED LOW CRESTING THE
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

...UPPER OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO NY...
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BE SUSTAINED BY RELATIVELY STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS SPREADING EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. NONETHELESS...FORCED ASCENT AND ADEQUATE
CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR MAY ACT TO OFFSET THE LACK OF GREATER
DESTABILIZATION AND CONTRIBUTE TO NARROW BANDS/LINES OF FASTER
MOVING CONVECTION. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED STRONGER WIND
GUSTS. MOST FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF FORCING/SHEAR/WEAK
INSTABILITY AND FRONTAL TIMING APPEARS OVER SOUTHERN TIER OF NY
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS PA TO WV AND EASTERN OH DURING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

...GREAT BASIN...
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID-LEVEL WIND MAX
25-35KT WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE MID/UPPER LOW TRACKING OVER NV/UT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. DIURNAL HEATING AND POCKETS OF STRONGER
EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30KT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN
INCREASE IN HIGH-BASED STORMS AND SOME CHANCE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.

..CARBIN.. 09/19/2014





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