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625
ACUS03 KWNS 220828
SWODY3
SPC AC 220827

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH
SERN GA INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WEDNESDAY. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES. A MORE MARGINAL THREAT FOR A STRONG STORM OR
TWO WILL EXIST FROM SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA THROUGH THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT IN THESE
REGIONS.

...SYNOPSIS...

HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE ERN STATES ON
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER JET WILL EVOLVE WITHIN THE ERN HALF OF THE
TROUGH. ATTENDANT CYCLONE WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT CONTINUES EWD AND OFF
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

...FL...

A STRONG LLJ WILL ADVECT UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE FL
PENINSULA...BUT WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT MUCAPE TO
500 J/KG MLCAPE IN WARM SECTOR. NUMEROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING FROM THE NERN GULF INTO THE SERN STATES AND NRN FL ALONG THE
CONVEYOR BELT...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR AND REMAINDER OF THE FL PENINSULA. STRONG WINDS ALOFT
ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 45-50 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN
THREAT. A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER UPDATES IF IT BEGINS TO
APPEAR INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

...SRN GA THROUGH THE ERN CAROLINAS...

DESPITE THE INFLUX OF MODIFIED CP BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR PROMOTED BY A
STRONG SLY LLJ...WIDESPREAD PRE-FRONTAL RAIN AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION
WILL PROBABLY LIMIT MUCAPE IN THIS REGION TO AOB 300 J/KG. STRONG
WINDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WITHIN CONVECTIVE LAYER WILL OVERSPREAD THE
WARM SECTOR AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION. WHILE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN TOO LIMITED FOR A
MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.

..DIAL.. 12/22/2014





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