weather.gov     
National Weather Service

Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
NWS Homepage
This page is being discontinued on March 12, 2014.
The same data is available at this site. Please update your bookmarks.
Thank you, and we apologize for the inconvenience.
Please send an email to SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov with any concerns.


Current Version
Previous Version:    01  02  03  04  05  06  
[Printable]
598
ACUS03 KWNS 270725
SWODY3
SPC AC 270724

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD
GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY...MOST
NUMEROUS WITHIN A ZONE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  ISOLATED SEVERE RISK
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THIS AREA -- FROM ROUGHLY MISSOURI TO THE GREAT LAKES.

...SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL EWD ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL
CONTINUE DAY 3...WITH THIS FEATURE LIKELY REACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT.  MEANWHILE...A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WITHIN THE
MAIN BELT OF WLYS IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WRN NOAM THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COOL FRONT CROSSING THE CENTRAL U.S. IS
FORECAST TO BECOME ILL-DEFINED AS IT SHIFTS EWD THROUGH THE
DAY...WHILE A STRONGER FRONT PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES/SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.  FARTHER W...A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE NWRN U.S. AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH.

...LOWER MI VICINITY SWWD TO ERN KS/NERN OK/NRN AR...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SHOULD
BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY FROM TX NEWD TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...AS THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH MAKES GRADUAL
EWD PROGRESS.  MODEL DIFFERENCES -- PRIMARILY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING
-- EMERGE THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM...WITH THE NAM
DEPICTING A MUCH FASTER ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH.  IN ANY CASE...WITH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD SURROUNDING THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MODEST...AND GIVEN LIKELIHOOD THAT CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD...SEVERE RISK IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
TEMPERED ONCE AGAIN.  THUS...WILL INTRODUCE A 5% RISK AREA FROM
LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS
PLATEAU...CORRESPONDING TO THE ANTICIPATED ZONE OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER
FLOW ALOFT.

..GOSS.. 08/27/2014





U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE