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993
ACUS02 KWNS 281710
SWODY2
SPC AC 281708

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD
GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY...MOST
NUMEROUS WITHIN A ZONE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  ISOLATED SEVERE RISK
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THIS AREA...FROM EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI TO THE MID TO
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...LOWER TO MID MO VALLEY/MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING WILL MOVE
EWD INTO THE LOWER TO MID MO VALLEY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS
ON FRIDAY. A BROAD CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION IS FORECAST FROM THE
CNTRL PLAINS EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY...ALONG
WHICH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND INSTABILITY INCREASES. SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F SHOULD ENABLE MODERATE
INSTABILITY TO BE IN PLACE BY AFTERNOON IN AREAS THAT REMAIN
UNDISTURBED BY MORNING CONVECTION.

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z FOR MADISON WI...DES MOINES IA AND
KANSAS CITY MO SHOW MLCAPE IN THE 1200 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE WITH 25 TO
30 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
IN AREAS THAT CAN SUFFICIENTLY WARM UP. MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS
MAY OCCUR WITH CELLS THAT HAVE ACCESS TO THE STEEPEST LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY WHERE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
STRONGEST.

..BROYLES.. 08/28/2014





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