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101
ACUS02 KWNS 201719
SWODY2
SPC AC 201718

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
WEST...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND PERHAPS OVER A PORTION OF THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED
LOW AS IT MOVES EWD...REACHING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END
OF DAY 2. CUTOFF UPPER LOW CIRCULATION OVER NRN MEXICO SHOULD DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST TOWARD WRN TX DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH
NOW APPROACHING THE WRN U.S. COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE CNTRL
AND NRN ROCKIES.

AT THE SFC A LEE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE NRN AND
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES WRN U.S. UPPER
TROUGH THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. AN OCCLUDED LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND OFF THE ERN U.S. SEABOARD IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN STATES.

...SRN THROUGH CNTRL ROCKIES AREA...

PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NWD AHEAD OF
THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH CLOSED UPPER
LOW CIRCULATION OVER NRN MEXICO. WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED CONVECTION INCLUDING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING.

...NERN STATES...

COLD AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW AND ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THIS FEATURE
SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE NERN STATES. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY
WEAK /GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ IT MIGHT BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A MORE GENERAL AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

...SRN FL...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN PLUME
OF DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD
CHARACTERIZE THE SRN FL PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR TUESDAY.

..DIAL.. 10/20/2014





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