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780
ACUS02 KWNS 241729
SWODY2
SPC AC 241728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NCNTRL THROUGH CNTRL FL...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND POSSIBLY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST OVER
NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...

BROAD SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S. WILL
PERSIST AND ADVANCE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD INTO THE UPPER TROUGH BASE AND
THROUGH THE NRN GULF AND SERN STATES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD SWWD THROUGH NRN FL INTO THE NRN GULF. A WEAK SFC
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACK NEWD THROUGH
NRN FL TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE
LOW-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

...NORTH CNTRL AND CNTRL FL...

A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST IN THE
FL PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY INDICATES A
PLUME OF HIGH-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER CNTRL MEXICO INTO THE
WRN GULF THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECT NEWD. DESPITE THE PRESENCE
OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY MAGNITUDES WITH
MLCAPE FROM 500-1000 J/KG LIKELY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ONGOING WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE OVER NRN FL...AND ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY. THE
SLY LLJ WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL INCREASE OVER NRN FL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW REMAINING IN POST
FRONTAL REGIME. NEVERTHELESS...DEEP VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN AOA
40 KT IN NRN PORTION OF WARM SECTOR...SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS. PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT A MARGINAL RISK ALSO EXISTS FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO AS THE LLJ INCREASES. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
IMPACTS OF ANY EARLY DAY WARM SECTOR CONVECTION ON WHAT IS EXPECTED
TO BE AN OVERALL MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT PRECLUDES ANY
CATEGORICAL UPGRADE AT THIS TIME.

..DIAL.. 11/24/2014





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