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598
ACUS02 KWNS 230508
SWODY2
SPC AC 230507

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WESTERN
TENNESSEE THURSDAY.  GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...LOWER MS VALLEY...

SRN EXTENT OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS WILL EXTEND INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THURSDAY AS PROGRESSIVE TROUGH TRANSLATES TO A POSITION FROM
SERN MN...SWD INTO CNTRL AR AT 25/00Z.  EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...CONTINUANCE OF LATE DAY1 CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY REGION ALONG NOSE OF LLJ.  THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT PROPAGATES EWD INTO
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE AIRMASS.

OF MORE CONCERN IS A CORRIDOR OF EXPECTED STRONG HEATING FROM ERN
TX...NEWD INTO THE BOOTHEEL OF MO.  ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG
TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD WANE ACROSS TX...SRN INFLUENCE OF
STRONGER FORCING IS EXPECTED TO CLIP PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.  IN FACT...THE NAM SUGGESTS A MEANINGFUL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
MAY EVOLVE WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LONGER-WAVE TROUGH AND EJECT
ACROSS SRN MO/NRN AR AT PEAK HEATING.  DEEPENING WLY FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPERATURES TO WARM RAPIDLY ACROSS THIS REGION AND
INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO BE NEGLIGIBLE BY 20Z ALONG THE WIND SHIFT.
 HAVE INCREASED SEVERE PROBS ALONG THE FRONT TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED
SCT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN A
SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINING ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.
ALTHOUGH DEEP FLOW WILL VEER SUBSTANTIALLY IT APPEARS BULK SHEAR
WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

ADDITIONALLY...HAVE EXTENDED LOW SEVERE PROBS ALONG WEAK WIND SHIFT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN/SCNTRL TX.  MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP CONVECTION
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BUT VERY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS.  STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST
INSTABILITY WOULD PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IF
TSTMS DEVELOP.

..DARROW.. 04/23/2014





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