weather.gov     
National Weather Service

Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
NWS Homepage
This page is being discontinued on March 12, 2014.
The same data is available at this site. Please update your bookmarks.
Thank you, and we apologize for the inconvenience.
Please send an email to SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov with any concerns.


Current Version
Previous Version:    01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  13  
[Printable]
905
ACUS02 KWNS 171729
SWODY2
SPC AC 171727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...MAINLY FRIDAY EVENING TO SATURDAY MORNING.

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE FAST FLOW ALOFT -- WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED TROUGHS -- WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN STATES...A WEAKER SRN STREAM WILL AFFECT THE
SRN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY...WITH ONE TROUGH CROSSING THE SOUTHWEST AND
A SECOND TRAVERSING THE SOUTHEAST/GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS SERN U.S.
FEATURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY ONE WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE
POTENTIAL...AS IT SUPPORTS WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE ERN
GULF/FL VICINITY.  WITH A MOIST WARM SECTOR AND INCREASING SHEAR
RESULTING FROM THIS SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION...LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY
REMAINS EVIDENT OVER THE FL PENINSULA.

...FL PENINSULA...
THINKING LAID OUT IN THE PRIOR FORECAST REMAINS VALID FOR THE FL
VICINITY DAY 2 -- WITH LIMITATIONS AS RELATED TO STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EVIDENT DUE TO BOTH DIURNAL TIMING ISSUES...AS
WELL AS LIKELIHOOD FOR THERMODYNAMIC DEFICIENCIES.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE
ERN GULF AND INTO AL/GA/THE FL PENINSULA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH
DOWNSTREAM CLOUD COVER RESIDING ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF AT LEAST
CENTRAL AND N FL.  WITH LAPSE RATES ALOFT THUS REMAINING RELATIVELY
WEAK...DIURNAL HEATING -- WHILE AIDING IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE ACROSS THE PENINSULA -- SHOULD FOSTER ONLY MODEST CAPE.  IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT AS THE UPPER FEATURE APPROACHES FL DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL SHIFT FROM
THE ERN GULF TOWARD/INTO N FL.  THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN BOTH
LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL...BUT WITH THIS LIKELY TO OCCUR BEYOND DIURNAL HEATING --
WITHIN AN ALREADY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...IT APPEARS
ATTM THAT RISK WILL REMAIN LIMITED...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY
5%/SEE TEXT FORECAST THIS UPDATE.

..GOSS.. 04/17/2014





U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE