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660
ACUS02 KWNS 020433
SWODY2
SPC AC 020432

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...UPPER MS VALLEY/NRN PLAINS...

WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NRN HIGH PLAINS SPEED MAX.  IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE IT APPEARS SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING SHOULD
ADVANCE NWD ACROSS THE MID MS/MID MO VALLEY REGION AS NW-SE ORIENTED
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TO A POSITION FROM SERN WI...NWWD ACROSS SRN
MN INTO THE CNTRL DAKOTAS.  WARM ADVECTION/ASCENT ALONG/NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD SCT WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING
FROM PORTIONS OF MO...NWD INTO MN.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE
ROOTED AOA 850MB AND GIVEN MODEST MUCAPE...ON THE ORDER OF 2000
J/KG...A FEW ROBUST UPDRAFTS COULD GENERATE HAIL.  LATEST
SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
COULD EVOLVE ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM SRN MN INTO WCNTRL WI.
STRONG INSTABILITY MAY MATERIALIZE ACROSS THIS REGION AS 70S SFC DEW
POINTS RETURN BENEATH STRENGTHENING LLJ.  WHILE WEAK WARM ADVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
EXHIBIT STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINING
SUPERCELLS.  SEVERE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST WITH STORMS THAT MANAGE
TO ROOT INTO THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE WARM FRONT.  LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH NEAR-SFC BASED SUPERCELLS.

FARTHER WEST...MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO ADVANCE WEST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.  EVEN SO...FORCING IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD ENCOURAGE ISOLATED ROBUST
CONVECTION WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED AIRMASS ALONG ADVANCING COLD
FRONT.  GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY BE NOTED.

..DARROW.. 09/02/2014





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